Not quite 40%

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Tory politicians usually have cause to complain about the polls that the BBC produces on election nights but the Corporation may have given David Cameron a significant symbolic (but exaggerated) victory on Thursday night.  The BBC gave Cameron's Conservatives a projected 40% share of the vote.  Jeremy Vine's computer analysis also put the LibDems in second place - a bonus for underperforming Ming.

In today's Sunday Times, the local election specialists Colin Rawlings and Michael Thrasher suggest that the Tories actually fell slightly short of the magic 40% threshold and that the LibDems actually came third on 25% (1% behind Labour).  The Tories would nonetheless have achieved a "small overall Commons majority" if those percentage shares were replicated in a General Election.

Writing in this morning's Sunday Telegraph (in an article which focuses on the BNP threat) Norman Tebbit urges the Tory leadership not to get too excited about Thursday's performance:

"The local election results last week will hearten the Conservatives. With 40 per cent of the vote, and the bulk of the remainder split evenly between Labour and the Lib-Dems, things are looking even better, and they won 320 seats or so, mostly from Labour, but the Lib-Dems are still a threat in the Southern heartlands.  What is more, David Cameron would be lucky if he ever fights another election against a Prime Minister who is the object of such contempt and mistrust, or in the wake of such a shambles of ministerial incompetence as in the run up to Thursday's poll.  With the Government in such disarray, a gain of only 2 per cent from 38 per cent to 40 per cent of the vote since these council seats were last contested in 2004, is not a cause to uncork the champagne."

Comments

[Jaz]

Tebbit certainly needs his mouth gagged, frankly, none, absolutely none, of the other candidates could achieve any higher in polling than DC.

His time is over, its time he steps aside and lets the next generation do what needs to be done. He's interfering and causing unnecessary division.

DC's team has already highlighted the fact that there is a massive, massive job to do.

[Elena]

I always have time for Tebbit and listen to what he has to say, but I do get the impression that nothing about project Cameron is good enough for him. If we'd have got 45% of the vote and caused absolute Labour meltdown, he still wouldn't be happy.

[Deputy Editor]

Having twice as many Councillors than the LibDems is a very good statistic (1830 to 909), particularly as they are strongest at a local level.

[Henry Whitmarsh]

I was never sure about Tebbit, but this is sound advice. I also like the guy because he was opposed to the privatisation of the probation service, which just proves what an eminently sensible guy he is to put pragmatism above idealism.

We did well in the locals, but this should not mean that there is nothing left to change. There are a great many more people who need convincing that the Conservatives are fit for purpose.

[William Norton]

I haven't seen the article, but I'd agree with the quote given above. On the basis of his 'still a lot of work to do' comments, I think DC agrees with it, too. We had a good night, but we'll need a lot more.

[Graeme Archer]

I always get in trouble when I say what I think about Norman Tebbit... so I won't. Re the "nearly" 40% that was in the Sunday Times this morning ... worth remembering that the article was written by the (surely discredited, in any rational observer's eyes?) same bloke wot was wittering on about how we'd probably get 75 losses on election day. Presumably he was too busy with his sh*tty algorithm in Plymouth University towers to notice that outside his office, the good people of Plymouth were voting OUT Labour and the Lib Dems, and voting IN Tories. I wouldn't bother about another word from the Plymouth Misery Sect's predictions or analyses, and I wouldn't advise anyone else to either.

[Jill Gunsell]

Irritant or or not, he often provides food for serious thought, and don't overlook his following which remains huge among older Conservatives without whom there's no winning a GE. He retains more cred than some Cameroons would like to believe and if he gets grumpy, so might those who listen to him.

Maybe he writes in public because no-one at HQ will listen to him. ('Listen' - not necessarily 'agree'...) If they did, maybe he would be inclined to be more discreet. Agree about his general response to Project DC, though.

Nevertheless... baby... bathwater. (cf. Politics of And.)

[Editor]

Good point, Graeme about R&T.

I add my public commiserations to you for not winning in Hackney and I join other ConservativeHomies in thanking you for flying the blue flag in unpromising territory. When we oust Mayor Ken in two years it will be the fact that you and others have nurtured/ kept alive Tory voters in 'little hope' areas that will be the difference between defeat and victory.

[Andrew Woodman]

I think people tend to be too harsh on Tebbit. He is realistic, pragmatic and talks common sense quite a bit of the time.

[Sean Fear]

I can't see anything that David Cameron would find to disagree with in Tebbit's article. Some people seem to have a Pavlovian reaction of automatic hostility to anything that Tebbit says, however sensible.

Rallings and Thrasher's analysis is better than that of the BBC because it based on more wards, and provides a more plausible projection of support for minor parties.

[Graeme Archer]

Guilty as charged Sean (Pavlovian reaction to Tebbit). But remember that Pavlov got his results after intensive conditioning. IE I wasn't born with antibodies to Tebbit; his actions produced them.

If R&T's algorithm is so good, how come it produced the predicition of losses?

@Editor: thanks Tim.

[Chad]

ConservativeHomies

Eurgh. Surely it should be ConservativeHome Addicts or chads for short?

;-)

[Editor]

Very funny Chad!

[Voice from the South West]

Graeme - I've always got the impression that Rallings and Thrasher's predictions were manipulated to such an extent by Newsnight until they were able to find the right figures suggesting a loss for the Conservatives. I believe they were widely dissmissed at the time, certainly on Politicalbetting.com, and as the actual results bare out that prediction was falwed.

Still it was quite amusing to see Prof. Thrasher (I think) slapping down David Laws on Sky when he suggested contary to Thrasher that the Lib Dems were having a very good night: "Well I'm sorry but your not!" came the reply :-)

[Sean Fear]

They're better at analysis than prediction, I suspect, Graeme. I did produce an article on Political Betting in which I strongly criticised the Newsnight prediction. The BBC projection placed all the minor parties on 7% (which they do virtually every year) which was way below what all the minor parties and independents got.

I would like to add my commiserations on the Hackney result. Plainly, Labour have recovered from their problems in the mid 90s here. I wish I could have come to help out, but I had my hands full in Brent North.

[Graeme Archer]

I heard you did really well in Brent, Sean. And you're right to point out that I know nothing about R&T other than the headlines I read in the following Sunday newspapers - that is, I react against them due to the BBC spin, rather than what they originally said (about which I know nothing). Mea culpa.

Culpa nostra, too, for the Hackney result. I just don't want the people who read this website to think that there was something more that Andrew could have done. I'm struggling to think what to do next. If we can't get Andrew Boff re-elected in Hackney, I can't think of anyone better. It's easy for me to go on about how astonished I was about the literally HUNDREDS of socialists that there were at the count - I didn't know there were that many - but at the end of the day it must be our (the activists') fault. We let Andrew down, and we've let the Queensbridge thousand who turned out to vote for him down too.

[Christina]

I think Tebbit is right about the BNP's ability to modernise and appeal to more people. Not many people are aware that Nick Griffin has tried to open up membership of the BNP to non-whites as well. He failed because of hardcore members. If the BNP get significantly more members (I've heard they've gone from 8000 to around 16000 in the last few months) I would not be surprised if Griffin tries it again and sacrifices his hardcore support. He wants power and will sacrifice anyone who stands in his way.

I liked Caroline Spelman when she explained on the election programme, that when she was out canvassing she was told by some people they were thinking of voting BNP. She won them round by pointing out what the Conservative policies on immigration and asylum were at the last election.

Cameron is right not to mention these issues at the moment, but we will have a sensible policy which is moderate, and deals with the problems of criminals taking advantage of our very loose borders.

We also need, IMO, to spread out asylum seekers throughout the country, so that housing does not become a problem. There are towns and cities where one can get a council flat within days. I live in one, Oldham.

[Graeme Archer]

But Christina, I saw (and like) Caroline Spelman too - I thought she said it was wrong of the government to send asylum seekers out of London.

[Sean Fear]

"I heard you did really well in Brent, Sean"

Okay, but not "really well" I'm afraid. We pushed up the Tory vote by nearly 400 in the ward that I was contesting (Fryent) but Labour pushed up their vote strongly as well. The overall outcome was a 2% swing from Labour to ourselves.

Outside Brent North, the Lib Dems swept to victory, and are now the largest party on the council.

[Graeme Archer]

Sean - same happened here (we increased Tory vote but Labour got there's up still further). Maybe we should have a Haringey/Brent/Islington/Hackney joint meeting to discuss?

[Graeme Archer]

ps "theirs" not "there's", sorry.

[Christina]

Hi Graeme, the point about spreading out asylum seekers is my opinion, not CSs. She is totally wrong, IMO, on that score. Why should an asylum seeker be given an advantage over British people?

If someone from Oldham (whatever ethnic group), Newcastle, etc wanted to move to London into a council flat, they wouldn't be able to.

I served for 12.5 years in the RAF. I couldn't get council accomodation when I left, from Hillingdon council. That was 94.

The main issue though is race relations, though I see it as culture relations. Massive numbers of people from a different culture in one place, will change the place. The result of that will be what we have seen in Barking.

It also costs more in London. Why house asylum seekers in a very costly place? They aren't allowed to work.

Also, here in Oldham, one can catch a bus and take a trip to Saddleworth which has lovely countryside. What is good about being in a huge conurbation, with no countryside? Yes, there is more work, but asylum seekers are not allowed to work.

Why burden the NHS where it is the most burdened? Same with schools. Why not spread people out?

[Patsy Sergeant]

Can't someone pension Geoffrey Howe off, or set him on Blair instead?

[Andrew Hardie]

I see the Gaurdian's map seems to be ignoring the Conservative council in South Ayrshire. Is this the Media doing their usual to try and pretend there are no Conservatives in Scotland?

[Goldie]

I haven't seen much by way of sustained, critical, informed analysis of the election results and its impact on the Cameron Project. But Tebbitt and the Sunday Times were about right:

1. The Tories have done fairly well in local elections during the Blair decade. Hague polled almost 38% in 2000 -- only to be soundly defeated by Blair in 2001. And of course Howard also achieved 38% in 2004, only to be soundly defeated by Blair in 2005. So, obviously, Cameron has had some effect but nothing spectacular.

There is not and has not been any national opinion poll whatsoever that showed the Tories at 40% and Labour at 26%. If and when such poll appears, I shall cease any further criticism of the Cameron Project.

2. Only parts of the country voted on Thursday, obviously, and the BBC "projected national share of the vote" is pretty much a meaningless number. We simply have no idea how the people in the South West and many other places, including Scotland, Wales and much of nothern England, would have voted.

Nonetheless, there were some pleasant surprises and obviously the Party is strengthening considerably in London. But this was already happening under Howard's leadership, since in 2005 most of our gains came in greater London. It's nevertheless clear that Cameron has strengthened this trend and that's perhaps the best news for him.

3. On the other hand, the 10 days immediately before the elections were about as disastrous as possible for the Government. (Cameron has that most essential of attributes for politicians, good luck.) But it allowed the Conservatives, especially vis-a-vis Clarke, to present their tough, law-and-order face, thus rallying the faithful (and, surprise surpise, the Tories did best in the south of England and London, their heart land). I was most encouraged by this aspect, which is the essential return of many middle class voters who were the bed-rock of the Thatcher majorities but who became increasingly alienated from Conservatism in the Major years, and fundamentally switched their allegiances to New Labour. We must win these people back, and they must not go over to the LibDems. But the emphasis on crime etc. presented a rather steely version of Cameron's Conservatives and it's not entirely clear to me that this represents a victory for his soft conservatism.

4. More pressingly, the Cameron strategy failed to work entirely in the north of England. We know the facts, there was no breakthrough. There must be a breakthrough, however, if the Tories are to form a comfortable working majority (those who are hoping for a coalition government with the Lib Dems are deluding themselves in so many ways). This is where the Cameron Project most conspicously fails, and where it most immediately and urgently ought tobe replaced by the 'And Theory of Conservatism' and a more gritty, less cosmopolitian/London slick presentation.

5. All in all, some modest baby steps, nothing more. As of now, a full fourth term for New Labour,now under Gordon Brown unfortunately still looks much more likely than a Cameron premiership.

[kingbongo]

Goldie, you're in danger of accepting that Cameron is making a difference and helping Conservatives win over voters directly from Labour. Any more comments with constructive criticism (as opposed to 'I hope the tories get thrashed') would be welcome and when we break all the records and win the next election outright I hope you'll be convinced that DC is the most effective leader we have had for a very long time.

[Derek]

I agree that we should not get too excited about these results. They are on a low turnout and in only a part of the country. At least they are not discouraging, which is good.

I also agree that the BNP could be more of a threat if they ditch some of their most extreme views. We have the retrail of Nick Griffin later this month. Whatever the result he can't lose in terms of publicity.

[Christina]

The retrial has been put back to October, Derek.

Although 52 seats aren't much in terms of total numbers, we should be aware that they came second in 70 seats also. Tebbit is quite right, if they modernised more, then things could really take off for them.

As a Northerner (Oldham) I was very pleased to hear Osborne object to Andrew Marr's assertion that Northerner's weren't interested in green issues. Osborne spoke out against the Southern sterotype of Northerners that Marr promoted.

[Sean Fear]

If Labour's support goes down next year, which I think is likely, then the BNP can expect to gain a lot of seats where they're currently a close second to Labour.

[Christina]

"If Labour's support goes down next year, which I think is likely, then the BNP can expect to gain a lot of seats where they're currently a close second to Labour."

If the Conservative leadership decide to be politically correct on this issue, insulting voters, then I agree with you Sean.

However, Cameron's approach to Conservatism should be attractive to working class people. There is no 'get on your bike' and he had on his website that Britain should not be a community of communities, ie there should be integration, not multiculturalism, in the philosophical sense.

The Conservative Party are quite capable of having sensible and fair immigration and asylum policies, in such a way that addresses the real imbalances against native Brits and those from immigrant communities that have been here for decades, and the PERCEIVED imbalances put forth by the BNP.

They aren't voting BNP because they are hardcore racists, it is because some genuine concerns are being refused to be even discussed by mainstream parties. That, alongside many misperceptions.

[William]

The Sunday Times writes - If such figures were repeated at a general election they (Cons) would have a small overall Commons majority. It is a big if, however, because as usual the local election results diverged sharply from national opinion polls

That is more true for Labour than for the Conservative and the Lib Dems, which are around 4/5% out. Labour are 10% out.

I see that as more evidence that national opinion polls are slanted, and it provides another piece of evidence that Labour used unconventional postal voting methods at the GE which also throws voting figures around.

[Andrew Hickling]

Not directly linked to this topic but i was pleased with our PR drive this morning.Hague,maude and osborne all performed well this morning on their tv appearences.One thing that was very cringeworthy however was the fact Adanm Ricckets was on Sky news this morning talking about David Cameron and the A list.It was a dire performance,i could hardly watch.Had no clue what he was on about.I hope he wont be included on the A list because i fail to see how he would be anything but an embarrassment to the party.

[William]

The BNP averaged 18% over 350 council seats. Two years before they were nearer 7%.

It doesn't take a genius to see that if they organise and moderate the racist aspects of their policies, they could be achieving 25% in two years time.

Where Conservatives were up against BNP, they were on 29%, not 40%.

The next two years are unlikely to be dull for politics-watchers.

The BNP could possibly in the future undercut a Conservative majority, and drive Labour into irrelevance along with UKIP.

Only a coalition between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives would stop the BNP if it does get its act together in the next two years. Even then Cameron would be advised to beef up his appeal to his right-wing.

[William]

Report from BNP west midlands 6th May, Simon Darby extract...

Back inside the count at Dudley, it looks as if the Labour Party has mobilised its vote as indicated by the usual over-representation in the dreaded “postal vote” trays.

[Andrew Hickling]

Again we have ludicrous people on here trying to play down Cameron's performance.I have said all along that some peoples expectaions have been way of the mark.I am sure that when Cameron was elected many thought that we would be automaticly 10points ahead in the poll's and would win the election.That in my opinion has always been way of the mark.Those who expected that made that judgemnt without realising our situation.Cameron became the leader of a party that nobody trusted or even liked.It was still in the shadow of previous goverments that were unpopular.It would be a massive struggle to regain the publics trust and look like a party who could govern again.There was no quick fix,the fact that cameron had a bit of media coverage for a few weeks and good poll results would mean nothing longterm.It was natural that after that period things would calm down.I fell that since Cameron was elected people have taken another look at us,they are styarting to think that they could vote for us.We seem a nicer party,a positive party that comes out with good ideas that actually make sense.I see people on here moan because we are sometimes 'only' 1 pr 2 points AHEAD in the poll's.This for me is great,the fact we are ashead is a great acheivment when you take into account the situation we were in before Cameron was elected.These local election results are a good sign that people are taking us seriously,of course it was helped by the troubles in the labour party but it is still a good result for us.I feel that these will have no bearing on any GE result but they are a good start.We need to out more work in and make more changes.Lets start by pairing our new focus on the enviroment and quality of life with broader policy on immigration,crime,health and pensions.We can take advantage our our current situation by letting people know out position on these matters,before now some would no even listen to us even if our policy made sense,now they have begun to listen,give them the policy now and they will realise they like out stance.Work done,much more to do........

[Richard North]

William (@19:35) writes: "The BNP averaged 18% over 350 council seats. Two years before they were nearer 7%... etc"

I think you make some important points. No one seems to be evaluating the performance of the BNP and its possible effects on the next few elections.

One other thought also intrudes - UKIP is falling apart at the seams and, unless there is a miracle, will present a very limited electoral presence in the future.

If it all but disappears, I suspect that (some of) the protest vote it currently attracts might go to BNP.

Your suggestion, therefore, that the BNP could possibly in the future undercut a Conservative majority... is well founded.

[Deputy Editor]

Indeed Richard.
I was looking at the UKIP site earlier where the press releases were trying to put a brave face on their results. They gained one Councillor = Stephen Allison is UKIP's newest Councillor.
Disastrous is the word for their performance.

[malcolm]

Why are you so fixated with the BNP William?They are by any stretch of the imagination still a tiny party with no influence at a national level.Moreover they have a terrible record of holding onto seats they have gained.This happens often because they have told lies to get elected or the electorate realise what inadequate people they have elected and vote for someone else.
Conservatives have to take them on and expose their lies wherever we find them but please let's not exagerate the threat the BNP pose to us.

[Chad]

UKIP is doomed to failure by its own shortcomings. A small party can compete with the lazier big parties with the enormous budgets by being what they are not and cannot really be; agile, and very well organised.

Unfortunately, UKIP is an organisational shambles, so it is both short of budget and organisation.

Of course I hope to grow Imagine on the moderate c-l with a strong working class and solid small government agenda that sits between Labour and the Tories, and it would be good to pick up some of the quality candidates who fail to make the A-list to help consolidate the votes that are drifting to the c-r parties including the BNP as well as taking on Labour in areas that the Tories have little chance of advance.

I hope Imagine, on a moderate small c conservative platform can grow and extend the (small c) conservative voice to areas that Cameron's Conservatives won't be able to reach, to increase the chance of deposing New Labour without having to make an unholy alliance with the europhile LibDems.

Far from a Tory protest, it would be good to pick up these unwanted quality candidates to take on Labour where the Tories have no chance.

Well that's the plan anyway... Nothing if not ambitious but at least it highlights that extending the (small c) conservative voice would help, not hinder the Tory Party.

[Richard North]

Malcolm says (@21:25) "please let's not exagerate the threat the BNP pose to us".

I don't think anyone is exaggerating it. But it is sensible to monitor and evaluate. Denial, which seems to be the preferred option in some quarters, is not sensible.

[wicks]

the greens have more councillors than the bnp, i don't see everyone getting worried about hippies taking over the country.

william's fixation with them does this site no credit at all by the way.

"It doesn't take a genius to see that if they organise and moderate the racist aspects of their policies, they could be achieving 25% in two years time."

what policies OTHER than racially based ones are going to attract people to vote for them?

[Christina]

"I was looking at the UKIP site earlier where the press releases were trying to put a brave face on their results. They gained one Councillor = Stephen Allison is UKIP's newest Councillor.
Disastrous is the word for their performance."

What's really interesting Sam, is that they omitted their loss of a councillor in the Wirral. Net gain = 0.

[Christina]

"Centre-left conservative" is an oxymoron Chad, IMO.

[William]

Malcolm - if you know the answers, that's helpful. I only talk about things that are of interest to me. Kind of natural really? That's why we're all here I thought.

If you think the BNP can be beaten easily enough by exposure of lies, that's important. Only thing is - which ones?

I hope you will allow me to be fixated with my next hobbyhorse whatever it turns out to be. They do change occasionally, you might have noticed!

[Andrew Kennedy]

"What's really interesting Sam, is that they omitted their loss of a councillor in the Wirral. Net gain = 0."

What you didn't mention Christina was that their Wirral Councillor was originally elected as a Conservative and defected to UKIP 2 years ago.

However, as a result of her standing for UKIP and splitting the Right vote, the poor people of Bebington (a mainly middle class suburban area of South Wirral) now have a Socialist councillor.

A warning for us all !

[William]

wicks - it's all about growth rates.

The Lib Dems have stalled.

Labour are crashing out.

We're nudging up a little bit.

The BNP has nearly trebled their support in 2 years to around 18%. Even a samll party which can maintain this kind of growth will be a threat.

The Greens are closer to UKIP levels than BNP.

I'm sorry to pollute your website as you see it, but I am only making arguments that interest me and some others, but clearly not everyone. My apologies.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>With the Government in such disarray, a gain of only 2 per cent from 38 per cent to 40 per cent of the vote since these council seats were last contested in 2004<<<<
They were last contested in 2002, although of course that was a year before the War In Iraq and that did have a big effect on Labour support but certainly so far as Conservative support goes it would be better to contrast their current support with the support in 2002 because the Conservative Party support actually changed very little from the 2001 to the 2005 General Election.

In 2002 the Conservative Party got 36% didn't they - it's about the percentage Labour was getting in Local Elections in the late 1980's and they got 34.5% in the 1992 General Election.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>The BNP has nearly trebled their support in 2 years to around 18%<<<<
18% in the tiny proportion of seats they contested, and that was a fall in terms of the overall average - if they had contested every seat their average percentage per seat would have been considerably less and that on a protest vote, wouldn't surprise me if people being asked were using opinion pollsters as a means of shocking the chattering classes.

[Christina]

"What you didn't mention Christina was that their Wirral Councillor was originally elected as a Conservative and defected to UKIP 2 years ago.

However, as a result of her standing for UKIP and splitting the Right vote, the poor people of Bebington (a mainly middle class suburban area of South Wirral) now have a Socialist councillor.

A warning for us all !"

I didn't know that Andrew, thanks for the further info.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>overall average<<<<
That is that undoubtedly they did better in their strongholds and managed to do well in seats they hadn't contested before, but it was still only a very small proportion of the total, probably they would have got 2% or so if they had contested every seat - and the closer they get to power the more explaining they will have to do and the more scrutiny they will be subject to and they have had false dawns before.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>One other thought also intrudes - UKIP is falling apart at the seams and, unless there is a miracle, will present a very limited electoral presence in the future.<<<<
More likely that they are still seen solely as a means to an end vis-a-vis withdrawing from the EU and not as a continuing political party beyond achieving that ambition, if the UK withdraws from the EU then UKIP will almost vanish to nothing, the longer the UK remains in the EU the more UKIP will grow and eventually will establish itself more permanently.

[William]

The BNP stood in 350 wards achieving 18%. They are up against massive postal vote fraud, and a determination to stop them being elected, which they can do little to challenge.

But the publicising of the electoral cheating, predominantly by Labour, makes their supporters and potential supporters even more convinced that they are being unfairly treated. Soon Griffin will be in jail, and the movement will swell.

It's like the hunting ban. Take away peoples' freedom and they flock together and energise. Ignore them and they just go away. It's the continuing repression of the BNP that ensures their growth and success.

[Editor]

William:

You're welcome to stay on this site if you don't turn every thread into the same insights into the BNP. One post after another from the same person on similar subjects is not helpful to discussion on the site.

[Martin Bristow]

We need to face up to the fact that our relatively strong performance on Thursday does contain some strong caveats.It is set against a background of a total government meltdown under a leader who has totally lost his authority.I remain to be convinced however that we are winning the wider battle of ideas on which we can build a sustained push for power.

I am not sure that people are making a positve vote for us.This will only come when electors associate us with their own ideals (lower taxes ,more choice, better services and the promise of a decent pension)

[William]

OK I'll start a new hobby horse.

[Jack Stone]

I can`t understand this attitude that the party as to worry about this party or that party and trim its policies so it doesn`t lose support to this one or change its policies so it doesn`t lose support to that party.
The way to success is to go out there point out the weaknesses of our opponents, tell the public about our strengths and why people should vote for us.
Lets stop worrying about our opponents and start concentrating on getting our message across.