Live local elections blog

4.13am Goodnight folks!  Sean Fear will present his analysis of the results tomorrow (about lunchtime) and sometime tomorrow I'll compare the final results to ConservativeHome's benchmark tests.

4.07am: THE BBC'S PROJECTED SHARE OF THE VOTE:

• Conservative 40%
• Liberal Democrat 27%
• Labour 26%

Conclusion: A very good share of the vote for the Conservatives.  The best since 1992!

3.55am: Sky reporting that Tories may have won Ealing.

3.49am: BNP spokesman in Barking (right) thank Margaret Hodge for her wonderful gift of publicity to them.

3.42am: BBC coverage is quite funny now.  Emily Maitlis is now anchoring coverage from a pub but we keep hearing reporters and production staff talking over each other.  Tim Donovan has admitted he was wrong to say Tory Enfield might be lost to Labour.

3.41am: Frank Dobson says a reshuffle would be like rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.  The longer Blair stays in place, he says, the Labour party is getting smaller and smaller.

3.40am: Labour lose Merton to NOC.

3.32am: In a complete surprise Labour lose Lewisham to NOC.

3.28am: Conservatives gain Croydon with likely 12 extra seats and LibDems wiped out (from 2 to 0). Ex-Lab leader of council is blaming last ten days of publicity - new Tory leader of council says Labour's high council tax at least as much to blame.

3.25am: Oaten effect sees Conservatives gain Winchester from NOC.  Poor Mark Oaten.

3.22am: LIGHTS OUT IN WESTMINSTER!  From Nick Robinson's BBC blog: "Was it something I said..?  The entire studio has just been plunged into darkness, taking the programme off air.  I am dictating this to a kindly colleague because it's not just the studio that has gone down. It would appear that all power to this building - and a large part of Westminster that we can see out of the windows - has gone.  None of us can remember anything quite like it."

3.20am: BNP have won 11 seats in Barking & Dagenham (of the 13 they contested).

3.15am: Grant Shapps MP on Sky says big story of night is Labour losses haven't been shared equally - as many had expected - between Tories and LibDems but Tories have been dominant.

3.12am: Conservatives gain Harrow.

3.06am: Conservatives gain Bexley in spectacular fashion - winning 24 more seats, moving up to 54 and Labour lose 23, collapsing to just 9 councillors.

3.03am: I'm now back with Sky after BBC suffered some sort of blackout!

2.53am: Stephen Twigg (Lab MP for Enfield Southgate until ousted by David Burrowes) is saying that Labour won't win Enfield...

2.46am: Very funny moment on BBC24.  Tessa Jowell said Labour had not tried to exploit Olympics for Labour.  David Dimbleby points out email from TJ saying that Olympics was victory for Labour government and Mayor and Caroline Spelman reminds viewers that it featured in Labour's one non-chameleon broadcast.

2.44am: Jeremy Vine reporting that Tories may lose Enfield.  That would be very disappointing.  Tories look set to gain Hillingdon, however.

2.40am: BNP up to 8 councillors in Barking & Dagenham.

2.35am: Disappointment for Tories as Labour hold Wolverhampton.

2.30am: Sky predicting LibDems may go backwards in Lambeth.  It's looking like a disappointing night for Ming.

2.19am: Alan Duncan on Sky wants to know where Gordon Brown is.  Lab lose Plymouth to NOC but hold Sheffield against LibDems.

2.14am: Conservatives gain Mole Valley from NOC.

2.11am: Conservatives have held Solihull against a strong LibDem challenge.  The LibDems took the Solihull General Election seat last May.  A good result for the Tories according to ConservativeHome's key benchmark test for tonight.  A good result for Caroline Spelman who worked very hard in the borough.

2.04am: Conservatives gain Coventry.  Tories gain two seats from Labour in Birmingham.

2.03am: Projecting on basis of current results there would be a hung parliament says Sky with Tories winning 320 seats (4 short of majority), Labour 232 and LibDems static on 62.

1.54am: "A council leader who lost his seat in the local elections said today he is to leave the Labour Party because it has become "a Tory party in disguise''. The former leader of Stoke-on-Trent council, Mick Salih, told BBC Radio Stoke that he would not renew his membership of the party. He has been a councillor for 13 years.  Labour lost overall control of the council, where it lost two seats and the BNP saw its strength rise from two to five councillors.  Mr Salih said he had tried to listen to people and had done his best, but he had had "enough of the Labour Party".  "I shall not be renewing my membership and that is a fact. It is not the Labour Party I joined years ago,'' he said." (From PA).

1.50am: Tories hold metropolitan boroughs of Trafford and Dudley.

1.48am: Blogger Richard Bailey has taken a seat from the LibDems in Huntingdonshire.  He reduced a 450 majority to 90 in 2004 and has just gained a 250 majority tonight.

1.43am: More from Jeremy Vine on right.  He's not Peter Snow but he's doing okay.  More voters (64%) think Labour divided than think Tories are divided (48%) in latest instalment of ICM poll for BBC.

1.41am: Conservatives gain Hastings.  LibDems gain South Lakeland.  Tories replace LibDems as second party in Bolton (bad news for Ruth Kelly).

1.35am: More from Iain Dale: "Conservatives take Harefield ward in Hillingdon by a landslide from Labour. I think it has been Labour previously. Result was something like Tory 1200 Lab 300. An indication of things to come, or not?"

1.32am: Chris Huhne on BBC saying that LibDems winning seats against Tories in Richmond and Eastleigh - places where the Tories need to win come the General Election.

1.30am: Conservatives gain Crawley.

1.24am: From Iain Dale: "Antony Little has won Bowthorpe ward in Norwich (candidate in Norwich South at last election). We now have two seats on Norwich City council for first time since 1985. This may seem small but it is a real breakthrough. Bowthorpe is a very Labour area – much council housing. He missed out by 14 votes in 2004. He’s done LibDem pavement politics. The Party must now put some resources into Norwich to support him." 

1.09am: Nick Brown MP - key ally of Gordon Brown - very lukewarm about Blair on BBC.  Refuses to rule out signing a letter calling for Blair to go.

1.00am: ICM survey for BBC says 50% want Blair to go NOW or by end of '06.

12.59am: Tories fail to gain seat in Manchester where Labour does well against LibDems.  Elsewhere in North West, Tories look set to gain Chorley.

12.57am: George Galloway's Respect set to be biggest party in Tower Hamlets (unconfirmed).

12.50am: BNP gain three seats in Stoke-on-Trent.

12.42am: Alan Duncan on Sky says Margaret Hodge's "idiotic" intervention on BNP is "in no small part" explanation for the BNP's success.

12.33am: Sky's latest state of the parties...

12.31am: Francis Maude on BBC says Tories have made "cracking start" under David Cameron but a "long way to go".  Tory performance he says is at top end of expectations.  He reminds David Dimbleby that not so long ago BBC was predicting Tory losses.

12.26am: Conservatives lose West Lindsey to NOC.  

12.24am: Tories win Longbridge ward in Birmingham from Labour.  Brilliant news.

12.20am: LibDem-Tory coalition looks likely in Camden.  I'm back with Sky News where the coverage is much more dynamic.  Less of the silly pub talks that BBC are going in for. Great fun watching Tessa Jowell squirm on Sky.  Ms J was responsible for Labour's London campaign.  No positive Olympics effect for her.

12.15am: Conservatives gain Shreswbury & Atcham.

The Editor takes fifteen minute tea break and phone call from IDS as he travels from Sky to BBC studios.  IDS has been in H&F this pm and predicts that H&F will become a very dynamic Tory council... 

11.55pm: Greg Hands MP predicting Hammersmith & Fulham will be Tory-run after tonight - for first time since 1968.

11.44pm: Labour in Barking & Dagenham suggesting BNP may gain half-a-dozen seats.  BNP may also gain in Stoke, Sandwell and Burnley in results to be declared tomorrow, says Thrasher on Sky.  Thrasher says he is unsurprised at BNP performance given the 4.9% they won at the last London elections.  IDS on Sky says BNP are gaining not just because of immigration but failure of mainstream politics to tackle long-term problems of alienation and poverty.

11.37pm: Newspaper review on Sky - Times is suggesting that Prescott will go on TV tomorrow to take the blame for Labour's losses.  Andrew Pierce predicts that defeated Labour councillors will lead calls for Blair to go tomorrow and the bad local election news won't be buried by the likely reshuffle.

11.32pm: First result in - Tories hold Tamworth gaining five seats from Labour.

11.28pm: LibDems' Tim Razzall predicting on Sky that they'll win Richmond-upon-Thames from Tories but Iain Dale has good news from Tunbridge Wells on the yellow versus blue frontline.

11.16pm photo from Sky: Did Mrs Prescott register a protest vote against Labour sleaze?

11.10pm: I've just taken a call from ToryRadio's Jonathan Sheppard.  He's predicting that the Conservatives will take full control of Bassetlaw.

11.05pm: Looks like there'll be a reshuffle tomorrow as BBC's Nick Robinson says that ministers have been told to stay in London.  The Spectator's Fraser Nelson told me that this was likely yesterday.  Well done Fraser!  Earlier today Iain Dale was speculating that Stephen Byers might return.  He's now discussing Gordon Brown moving to the Home Office.  I don't think either will come to pass.

10.55pm: Newsnight predicting that Labour will lose Camden because of local issues.

10.49pm: Hopping over to Newsnight and more Jeremy Vine.  They've got an ICM poll which puts Brown, Cameron and Campbell at 36%, 30% and 17% for "Who would make the best Prime Minister?"  Labour also enjoy a 45% to 39% lead on trusted to run the economy.

10.44pm: Local elections expert Michael Thrasher (on Sky News) predicting turnout of about 33% today.  He says 150 losses for Labour would probably be acceptable for Blair but over 250 and the alarm bells will really start ringing.  He says both Tories and LibDems should gain about 200 seats each.

10.40pm: Sky News are highlighting the three-way contests in Bolton and Bristol.

10.30pm: Jeremy Vine just presented this graphic on BBC1's Ten'o'clock news (click the graphic to enlarge).  Michael Howard's Tories did very well in 2004 and Labour performed particularly badly.  Will Blair go even lower tonight?

Comments

[Richard]

Tories gain Bassetlaw.

[Henry Whitmarsh]

I think a few of the NOC can be chalked up to Con gains.

[Richard]

"George Galloway's Respect set to be biggest party in Tower Hamlets (unconfirmed)"

If the BNP also win there I wonder if RESPECT will put their No Platform policy into action at council meetings?!

[Chris]

Where di we just gain? We just flipped from -1 councils to 0 net.

[Richard]

Where di we just gain? We just flipped from -1 councils to 0 net

Bassetlaw.

BNP seem to have gained 3 in Sandwell.

[Henry Whitmarsh]

Yay, (kind of) Lib Dems take one off Labour in Newcastle. Unfortunately we didn't get anything :-(

[Andrew Woodman]

We've lost a good councillor in Derby by just 8 votes. Very annoying. Still looking a good night overall.

[Richard]

Now for a diversion. How are UKIP doing?

[Chris]

Richard, 1 seat for UKIP, 11 for BNP. All otehr independents/small parties seem to be suffering.

[Editor]

UKIP have gained one seat so far, Richard. Don't know anything else about them.

[Henry Whitmarsh]

1

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>Con gains all over North West. Chin up.<<<<
They lost a seat in Macclesfield where both Labour and the Liberal Democrats gained a seat each and in Manchester the Conservatives still don't have a seat and the Liberal Democrats didn't make any headway.

[Andrew Woodman]

A win by Antony Little in Norwich apparently. Well deserved.

[Richard]

Lib Dems say they may take Richmond. There's a massive Tory majority. Is this possible?!

[Andrew Woodman]

There would have to be a big difference in the local national swings for that to happen Richard.

[Andrew Milne]

The Tory majority in Richmond is very deceptive. Most of our wards are held on slim margins. I hope we hang on though. It would a disgrace though if the Lib Dems after nearly bankrupting the council were able to take it again. It says little of what is meant to be the best educated part of the country.

[Mark Fulford]

Lib Dems say they may take Richmond

Did I hear the BBC's London Editor accidentally describing that as "some good news" then stumbling as he realised what he said? I must be mistaken because the BBC would never allow such bias...

[Richard]

I heard that too Mark. Very strange.

[Richard]

Tories now have a net gain of 2 councils. Which ones are they?

[The Morningstar]

The Tories have taken 5 seats in Barrow-in-Furness, I live there and that will be a huge shock, the Labour ethic is ingrained in people from birth here.

[Henry Whitmarsh]

Yet another, I would direct your attention to Chester, Bury and Rochdale and Tameside, where Cons have gained seats.

BNP gain one in Reddich, :-(

[Andrew Woodman]

Chorley and Bassetlaw Richard.

[Andrew]

Just broke +100 (after 93 councils). Labour -93, LD +7, Oth -14.

[Chris]

St Albans just fell to lib dems from NOC. I really want to know whether our gain is South Marshalswick or Verulam though.

[Richard]

Lib Dems gain St Albans from NOC. They took two seats from Labour and the Tories took one.

[Patsy Sergeant]

Now John Reid is trying to convince us that 'nearly half the people want Tony Blair to go until after the next election'. On the BBC of course.

[mattsimpson]

BBC reporting we have won Crawley in Sussex - a council we have NEVER held. We cut the Lab majority to 37 last year as well.

Excellent news.

[Richard]

Should the Tories have gained more seats by now? Or do we expect them to start piling up as London results come in?

[Patsy Sergeant]

Yes! Conservative have gained Crawley!

[wasp]

Crawley is HUGE but the BBC is not mentioning it at all, thats the biggest result this evening...

[Chris]

Well, just over half of councils have returned their results and we have gain of 106 seats. The London Bouroughs should give us some serious gains, so I imagine we will easily break 200 by the end of the night.

[Mark Fulford]

As we hit +100 and LD only go to +7 it's pure pleasure to watch Sarah Tether's increasingly forced smile.

[Richard]

"Crawley is HUGE but the BBC is not mentioning it at all, thats the biggest result this evening..."

I think we narrowly missed out on winning there in the GE last year.

[Goldie]

So far, results are decent but not great.

[Andrew Woodman]

Very disingenuous Goldie. We have 55 more than you predicted already unless you think we will have a London meltdown!!

[Richard Bailey]

We've just GAINED me!!!

I won my ward in Huntingdonshire, taking it from the Lib Dems. I reduced a 450 majority to 90 in 2004 and have just gained a 250 majority tonight.

What a day!

[Goldie]

Andrew: obviously my particular prediction was wrong, but that doesn't mean the overall result is good from Cameron's point-of-view.
It's a bit of wash, really, right now. A little bit better than 2004, which is okay for Cameron but can't be as good as he hoped. And given low turn-out etc. etc. it doesn't say much for the General Elections.

There is, in any case, NO Labour melt-down, when they've had one of their worst three week period since coming into power.

We'll have to await London. Also, Cons are not consistently outbattling LibDems. As I said: a bit of a wash, decent but not great.

[Mark Fulford]

Congrats Richard

[Richard]

Well done Richard!

[Andrew Woodman]

Well done Richard. Well deserved.

[Goldie]

Congratulations, Richard.

[Yet Another Anon]

A party called England First formed by ex-BNP members and favouring splitting the UK and having a seperate English Nation has gained 2 seats on Blackburn Council apparently, if anything it appears that they hold more extreme views than the BNP.

[Chris]

Richard Bailey, Congratulations :D Glad you stuck at it since 2004 as well.

[Andrew Woodman]

Harsh in the extreme Goldie. You should work for the BBC.

[Editor]

Congrats from me, too, Richard!

[Richard]

"Council apparently, if anything it appears that they hold more extreme views than the BNP."

I think they're in some way affiliated to the British Peoples' Party who accuse the BNP of being sell-outs. They want compulsory repatriation of non-whites. Not sure what the EFP's policy is on this but probably the same.

[Goldie]

Please, Andrew. Just consider what these results would have been if the Clark and Prescott stories did NOT break in the last two weeks.

Cameron really should have done better, that's been my opinion for a while.

But I await London.

[Gildas]

Sky don't seem to be mentioning it on their ticker yet, but according to the Swindon Borough Council Elections site, we've held on with a much increased majority - including unseating a 20 year incumbent Labour councillor in the ward I live in.

Overall Council: Con 40, Lab 14, LD 3, O 2

http://www.myelection.co.uk/swindon/index_html

[Jonathan Sheppard]

Just back from Bassetlaw. 4 gains and Tories take control! A great result with gains in urban Worksop>

[Richard]

"The EFP will stop almost all immigration into England, increase the departure rate of failed asylum seekers and usher in a policy of humane voluntary repatriation for other non-White immigrants. "

Hmm, seems they have the same dubious policy as the BNP. "We're not extreme because we no longer believe in compulsory repatriation". Yes, but you still want them to leave!

[Goldie]

Hmm, I was watching BBC mainly but Sky seem to be more on the ball, and they're suggesting much better numbers for Cameron than the BBC.

[Mark Fulford]

Crawley decided on the toss of a coin. Who'd have thought it!

[Chris]

Jesus! Crawley and St Albans both had seats with lots drawn. In Crawley we won against Labour, in St Albans we lost to the Lib Dem... *prays that the lit drawing didn't happen in South Marshalswick*

[Mark Fulford]

... and St Albans too. Win some, lose some.

[Editor]

Well done Jonathan. I look forward to ToryRadio's Bassetlaw special.

[Jon White]

Watching the BBc website live in the USA-looks like a great night so far. Congrats to all new Tory councillors. Now, anxiously awaiting London results. A great night can, and should, get even better!

[Deputy Editor]

Well with London to come Jon, here's hoping!

[Richard]

The Lib Dems are, so far, doing shockingly in terms of councillor net gains.

Sky is saying if a GE was held based on the current vote percentages the Tories would be several seats short of an overall majority.

[Chris]

Gained Coventry

[Andrew Woodman]

Held Solihull. More Lib Dem failings

[Richard]

Good news for the Tories in Hammersmith and Fulham according to Sky. Have taken 3 seats so far.

[Richard]

BNP have gained a seat in Solihull. Strong rumours they might have gained in Tower Hamlets. With Respect guaranteed of seats there I'd love to be a fly on the wall in their council meetings if the BNP do get a seat!

[Chris]

Mole valley has come over to CON from NOC

[Andrew Milne]

Final result Wandsworth we strengthen our hold taking 1 off labour

[Richard]

Tories gain mole Valley.

Hmm, I should go to bed soon!

[Jon White]

Best news of night is so few LD wins in terms of councillors. The dirty tricks brigade are coming a VERY poor 3rd. EXCELLENT!!!!

[Alexander Drake]

Richard, my warmest congratulations for your success. Great to see!

[Chris]

Getting tired, but I at least want to see Hammersmith, Harrow and Camden declare.

[Editor]

What's Radio Five's coverage like, Alexander?

[Goldie]

Rather pathetic that we still can't win a single seat in Oxford.

[Andrew Woodman]

Love your optimistic outlook Goldie.

[Richard]

BNP seem to be doing well in Barking so far. Surprise surprise.

[Chris]

Goldie, do we even properly contest Oxford seats or do we just have paper candidates there?

[Goldie]

I live in the "fact-based community", Andrew, not in la-la-land.

[Graeme Archer]

Thank you Plymouth! (Keith's a Plymouth boy).

[Goldie]

Chris: Cons have certainly been trying to regain seats in Oxford over the years.

[Martin Curtis]

The Tories have done bloody well so far, with some good London results to come. Surprise of the night is the poor performance of the Lib Dems so far, although they may also pick up in London.

[Martin Curtis]

Surprise there then - Con hold for Kensington and Chelsea

[Alexander Drake]

I switched over to Radio Four a while ago Tim - listening while packing today (moving house). I got sick of the football stuff on 5 Live.

Radio Four talking heads sounding pretty down, implying that Con gains in South don't have the same political value as Con gains in North.

Vince Cable was quiet - he sounded as though he knew what was coming in London and didn't like the thought of it.

R4 tone also sounded pretty down about the big swing in a big Lab ward in Hammersmith and Fulham....

Will have to go offline shortly for a few hours - will come back on later once movers have been and gone.

I'll be looking forward to the analysis over the weekend...

[Richard]

I agree that the big surprise is the Lib Dem flop.

Labour aren't doing as badly as I hoped and the Tories aren't doing as well as I hoped. Let's hope the London results improve things.

[Goldie]

If you can't even win any councillers in Liverpool, Manchester, Oxford etc. how can you win the General Election?

[Chris]

Harrow is being tipped to turn blue (5 new seats at least), Hammersmith and Fulham is seeing big swings (8% in one area) and is expected to turn blue. The news that enfield may go to Labour sounds peculiar though...

[Graeme Archer]

I agree with Martin - my favourite feeling so far is the failure of the LibDems to breakthrough. Ming the Voteless.

[Graeme Archer]

Is anyone online from, or connected to, Enfield? Just heard a rumour that Labour were going to regain the council!

[Richard]

I note Sky are quicker than the BBC website. They've got the Tories on a net gain of 6 councils while the latter have them on a net gain of just 4.

[Aaron]

re Oxford: it's OUCA territory; with the aforementioned organisation being - how do I put it - 'unpopular' with the vast bulk of the student body, the party are at a distinct disadvantage.

And there's only two parliamentary constituencies, anyway. There's bigger deals.

[Richard]

Barking BNP have 8 seats so far.

[Editor]

Thanks Alexander. I hope the move goes well.

How do you think you did Graeme?

[Mark Fulford]

To put the LibDem failure in perspective: the tiny Green party has made as many gains as Lib Dems.

[Richard]

BNP won a seat in Birmingham only to ber told it was a cockup. Sky are interviewing the "victorious" candidate at the moment.

[Mark Fulford]

Enfield: wishful thinking from our BBC London Editor? Stephen Twigg seems to think so.

[Goldie]

Enfield (if that loss if for real) would suggest that the Con gains are not as spectacular as advertised by some. It's all a bit of a wash, and as such not particularly encouraging for Cameron so far. After such a disastrous week for Labour, if his Project was really on track, he simply should have done better.

[Graeme Archer]

Hi Tim. We won't know until tomorrow - everything in Hackney works poorly, including the vote-counting process. We start at 8am this morning! Oops.

Here is the Hackney predictions from the Graeme-ometer, which I KNOW the entire CH community is waiting for with baited breath:

We currently have 10, Lab 44, Lib 3.

I predict we will win 3 in Queensbridge (incl. the seat Andrew won in the by-election last year) but that we will again NARROWLY fail to take Hoxton (top target). I'm basing that on the briskness of the voting, the Labour machine etc. I think we might pick up 1 in Leabridge. If we do REALLY well in London we might get something in De Beauvoir.

Hoping that Andrew makes second round in the mayoral vote, as last time - but it was quite tight then. There's an extremely popular woman called Hettie Peters standing as an independent - she got the 2nd pref of every Tory I know and she had a fantastic battle bus! If she can beat the loathsome Pipe and become mayor, that's a good result for the people.

I only persuaded Keith to stand in Victoria ward by showing him the results from last time when something called the Christian People's Alliance got more votes than us. By the way, is it a crime (I'm asking hypothetically) to steal a ballot paper because it has both your names on it for probably the first and last time in history?

Oh! Just heard Twigg on BBC - BBC is wrong re Enfield.

Tim since you were so kind to ask I will text you Hackney results tomorrow :-0)

[Mark Fulford]

Goldie, we've won 44% of seats so far. What more did you want?

[Chris]

GAH! BBC feed has gone down and I've no digital up in my room :( Anyone heard anything more on Harrow or Camden?

[Voice from the South West]

Con gain Bexley

[Graeme Archer]

All the talking heads on the now defunct BBC will try and say you can't read too much into our gains. I disagree. I remember how we lost Scotland - we lost the councils first. Lose your councillors and you lose not only your party machine for leaflets, canvassing, people-contact; you lose your friendly voice in the local press. So even though at first we thought "if we add up our vote across the constituency then we can still hold on even though we don't control council" - was rubbish. Losing the councils entailed the loss of the parliamentary seats. So I see these far from modest gains as an absolutely vital staging post on the way back to westminster majority because it gives us the footprint and the voice in the living room again.

We've just gained Bexley! We gained 24 seats!!!!

[Richard]

Cons gain 24 seats in Bexley! Now that's what I call a frying!

[Richard]

BNP have 11 BNP councillors in Barking so far. They can't get a maximum of 13 as one of their candidates has lost.

[Richard]

"Others gain Harrow".

Who are "others"?!