Live local elections blog

4.13am Goodnight folks!  Sean Fear will present his analysis of the results tomorrow (about lunchtime) and sometime tomorrow I'll compare the final results to ConservativeHome's benchmark tests.

4.07am: THE BBC'S PROJECTED SHARE OF THE VOTE:

• Conservative 40%
• Liberal Democrat 27%
• Labour 26%

Conclusion: A very good share of the vote for the Conservatives.  The best since 1992!

3.55am: Sky reporting that Tories may have won Ealing.

3.49am: BNP spokesman in Barking (right) thank Margaret Hodge for her wonderful gift of publicity to them.

3.42am: BBC coverage is quite funny now.  Emily Maitlis is now anchoring coverage from a pub but we keep hearing reporters and production staff talking over each other.  Tim Donovan has admitted he was wrong to say Tory Enfield might be lost to Labour.

3.41am: Frank Dobson says a reshuffle would be like rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.  The longer Blair stays in place, he says, the Labour party is getting smaller and smaller.

3.40am: Labour lose Merton to NOC.

3.32am: In a complete surprise Labour lose Lewisham to NOC.

3.28am: Conservatives gain Croydon with likely 12 extra seats and LibDems wiped out (from 2 to 0). Ex-Lab leader of council is blaming last ten days of publicity - new Tory leader of council says Labour's high council tax at least as much to blame.

3.25am: Oaten effect sees Conservatives gain Winchester from NOC.  Poor Mark Oaten.

3.22am: LIGHTS OUT IN WESTMINSTER!  From Nick Robinson's BBC blog: "Was it something I said..?  The entire studio has just been plunged into darkness, taking the programme off air.  I am dictating this to a kindly colleague because it's not just the studio that has gone down. It would appear that all power to this building - and a large part of Westminster that we can see out of the windows - has gone.  None of us can remember anything quite like it."

3.20am: BNP have won 11 seats in Barking & Dagenham (of the 13 they contested).

3.15am: Grant Shapps MP on Sky says big story of night is Labour losses haven't been shared equally - as many had expected - between Tories and LibDems but Tories have been dominant.

3.12am: Conservatives gain Harrow.

3.06am: Conservatives gain Bexley in spectacular fashion - winning 24 more seats, moving up to 54 and Labour lose 23, collapsing to just 9 councillors.

3.03am: I'm now back with Sky after BBC suffered some sort of blackout!

2.53am: Stephen Twigg (Lab MP for Enfield Southgate until ousted by David Burrowes) is saying that Labour won't win Enfield...

2.46am: Very funny moment on BBC24.  Tessa Jowell said Labour had not tried to exploit Olympics for Labour.  David Dimbleby points out email from TJ saying that Olympics was victory for Labour government and Mayor and Caroline Spelman reminds viewers that it featured in Labour's one non-chameleon broadcast.

2.44am: Jeremy Vine reporting that Tories may lose Enfield.  That would be very disappointing.  Tories look set to gain Hillingdon, however.

2.40am: BNP up to 8 councillors in Barking & Dagenham.

2.35am: Disappointment for Tories as Labour hold Wolverhampton.

2.30am: Sky predicting LibDems may go backwards in Lambeth.  It's looking like a disappointing night for Ming.

2.19am: Alan Duncan on Sky wants to know where Gordon Brown is.  Lab lose Plymouth to NOC but hold Sheffield against LibDems.

2.14am: Conservatives gain Mole Valley from NOC.

2.11am: Conservatives have held Solihull against a strong LibDem challenge.  The LibDems took the Solihull General Election seat last May.  A good result for the Tories according to ConservativeHome's key benchmark test for tonight.  A good result for Caroline Spelman who worked very hard in the borough.

2.04am: Conservatives gain Coventry.  Tories gain two seats from Labour in Birmingham.

2.03am: Projecting on basis of current results there would be a hung parliament says Sky with Tories winning 320 seats (4 short of majority), Labour 232 and LibDems static on 62.

1.54am: "A council leader who lost his seat in the local elections said today he is to leave the Labour Party because it has become "a Tory party in disguise''. The former leader of Stoke-on-Trent council, Mick Salih, told BBC Radio Stoke that he would not renew his membership of the party. He has been a councillor for 13 years.  Labour lost overall control of the council, where it lost two seats and the BNP saw its strength rise from two to five councillors.  Mr Salih said he had tried to listen to people and had done his best, but he had had "enough of the Labour Party".  "I shall not be renewing my membership and that is a fact. It is not the Labour Party I joined years ago,'' he said." (From PA).

1.50am: Tories hold metropolitan boroughs of Trafford and Dudley.

1.48am: Blogger Richard Bailey has taken a seat from the LibDems in Huntingdonshire.  He reduced a 450 majority to 90 in 2004 and has just gained a 250 majority tonight.

1.43am: More from Jeremy Vine on right.  He's not Peter Snow but he's doing okay.  More voters (64%) think Labour divided than think Tories are divided (48%) in latest instalment of ICM poll for BBC.

1.41am: Conservatives gain Hastings.  LibDems gain South Lakeland.  Tories replace LibDems as second party in Bolton (bad news for Ruth Kelly).

1.35am: More from Iain Dale: "Conservatives take Harefield ward in Hillingdon by a landslide from Labour. I think it has been Labour previously. Result was something like Tory 1200 Lab 300. An indication of things to come, or not?"

1.32am: Chris Huhne on BBC saying that LibDems winning seats against Tories in Richmond and Eastleigh - places where the Tories need to win come the General Election.

1.30am: Conservatives gain Crawley.

1.24am: From Iain Dale: "Antony Little has won Bowthorpe ward in Norwich (candidate in Norwich South at last election). We now have two seats on Norwich City council for first time since 1985. This may seem small but it is a real breakthrough. Bowthorpe is a very Labour area – much council housing. He missed out by 14 votes in 2004. He’s done LibDem pavement politics. The Party must now put some resources into Norwich to support him." 

1.09am: Nick Brown MP - key ally of Gordon Brown - very lukewarm about Blair on BBC.  Refuses to rule out signing a letter calling for Blair to go.

1.00am: ICM survey for BBC says 50% want Blair to go NOW or by end of '06.

12.59am: Tories fail to gain seat in Manchester where Labour does well against LibDems.  Elsewhere in North West, Tories look set to gain Chorley.

12.57am: George Galloway's Respect set to be biggest party in Tower Hamlets (unconfirmed).

12.50am: BNP gain three seats in Stoke-on-Trent.

12.42am: Alan Duncan on Sky says Margaret Hodge's "idiotic" intervention on BNP is "in no small part" explanation for the BNP's success.

12.33am: Sky's latest state of the parties...

12.31am: Francis Maude on BBC says Tories have made "cracking start" under David Cameron but a "long way to go".  Tory performance he says is at top end of expectations.  He reminds David Dimbleby that not so long ago BBC was predicting Tory losses.

12.26am: Conservatives lose West Lindsey to NOC.  

12.24am: Tories win Longbridge ward in Birmingham from Labour.  Brilliant news.

12.20am: LibDem-Tory coalition looks likely in Camden.  I'm back with Sky News where the coverage is much more dynamic.  Less of the silly pub talks that BBC are going in for. Great fun watching Tessa Jowell squirm on Sky.  Ms J was responsible for Labour's London campaign.  No positive Olympics effect for her.

12.15am: Conservatives gain Shreswbury & Atcham.

The Editor takes fifteen minute tea break and phone call from IDS as he travels from Sky to BBC studios.  IDS has been in H&F this pm and predicts that H&F will become a very dynamic Tory council... 

11.55pm: Greg Hands MP predicting Hammersmith & Fulham will be Tory-run after tonight - for first time since 1968.

11.44pm: Labour in Barking & Dagenham suggesting BNP may gain half-a-dozen seats.  BNP may also gain in Stoke, Sandwell and Burnley in results to be declared tomorrow, says Thrasher on Sky.  Thrasher says he is unsurprised at BNP performance given the 4.9% they won at the last London elections.  IDS on Sky says BNP are gaining not just because of immigration but failure of mainstream politics to tackle long-term problems of alienation and poverty.

11.37pm: Newspaper review on Sky - Times is suggesting that Prescott will go on TV tomorrow to take the blame for Labour's losses.  Andrew Pierce predicts that defeated Labour councillors will lead calls for Blair to go tomorrow and the bad local election news won't be buried by the likely reshuffle.

11.32pm: First result in - Tories hold Tamworth gaining five seats from Labour.

11.28pm: LibDems' Tim Razzall predicting on Sky that they'll win Richmond-upon-Thames from Tories but Iain Dale has good news from Tunbridge Wells on the yellow versus blue frontline.

11.16pm photo from Sky: Did Mrs Prescott register a protest vote against Labour sleaze?

11.10pm: I've just taken a call from ToryRadio's Jonathan Sheppard.  He's predicting that the Conservatives will take full control of Bassetlaw.

11.05pm: Looks like there'll be a reshuffle tomorrow as BBC's Nick Robinson says that ministers have been told to stay in London.  The Spectator's Fraser Nelson told me that this was likely yesterday.  Well done Fraser!  Earlier today Iain Dale was speculating that Stephen Byers might return.  He's now discussing Gordon Brown moving to the Home Office.  I don't think either will come to pass.

10.55pm: Newsnight predicting that Labour will lose Camden because of local issues.

10.49pm: Hopping over to Newsnight and more Jeremy Vine.  They've got an ICM poll which puts Brown, Cameron and Campbell at 36%, 30% and 17% for "Who would make the best Prime Minister?"  Labour also enjoy a 45% to 39% lead on trusted to run the economy.

10.44pm: Local elections expert Michael Thrasher (on Sky News) predicting turnout of about 33% today.  He says 150 losses for Labour would probably be acceptable for Blair but over 250 and the alarm bells will really start ringing.  He says both Tories and LibDems should gain about 200 seats each.

10.40pm: Sky News are highlighting the three-way contests in Bolton and Bristol.

10.30pm: Jeremy Vine just presented this graphic on BBC1's Ten'o'clock news (click the graphic to enlarge).  Michael Howard's Tories did very well in 2004 and Labour performed particularly badly.  Will Blair go even lower tonight?

Comments

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

Sky's coverage really is rather good. I was expecting the BBC coverage to start at 22.40 so I'm a bit miffed, and not only because of the misleading 'declarations' on their website.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

Tips from Smithson's site: LDs doing well in Richmond, Labour performed 'disastrously' in Tower Hamlets (tip courtesy of our own Sean Fear)...

[Richard]

"Sky's coverage really is rather good. I was expecting the BBC coverage to start at 22.40 so I'm a bit miffed, and not only because of the misleading 'declarations' on their website."

Why oh why were they giving it in GMT?! Now I have nothing to watch I've had to return here and make this pointless post to pass time!

Time for Sky News methinks.

[Alexander Drake]

The core figure there is the 'better economic manager' figure, Tim - and I suspect that won't move unless interest rates go up enough to hurt in marginal seats.

[Guido Fawkes]

That screen grabber is great isn't it Tim?

Money to be made on Betfair tonight. Tories have gone favourite for the General Election.

Betting available on :

Barking and Dagenham
Birmingham
Blackburn With Darwen
Bolton
Brent
Carlisle
Cheltenham
Chester
Croydon
Ealing
Eastbourne
Hammersmith + Fulham
Haringey
Hillingdon
Islington
Leeds
Manchester
Merton
Norwich
Oxford
Redbridge
Solihull
Tower Hamlets
West Lancashire
Winchester
Wirral

[Editor]

I'm still using the Canon camera sorry, Guido! I'll do better soon...

[Richard]

Labour lose 5 seats in Tamworth. The massacre begins!

[Alexander Drake]

Tim, Guido, anyone - can you recommend a live audio stream for those of us not in the UK?

[Iain Dale]

The village I live in, Pembury, near Tunbridge Wells, was a LibDem marginal ward. No longer. We thrashed the yellow peril today.

Con 1124
Lib 877

50% turnout

Last time the LibDems were 50 votes ahead, so it's a massive swing to us. The LibDem councillor, Tom Symondson, is 23. He's the youngest councillor in the South East. He was actually rather good so to beat him by that margin is a real triumph for the Conservative Mike Tompsett. I knew they were in trouble when I saw them driving round the village in a Mercedes open top car with a megaphone. Very environmentally friendly I don't think! Well done Mike!

[Martin Curtis]

First result in. Conservatives remain in control of Tamworth and gain 5 seats from 16 to 21 at the expense of Labour. I hope this is the story of the night.

[Editor]

Sorry, I'm not aware of anything Alexander. You'll have to rely on the blogs!!

[Richard]

I know you said Audio but there's the BBC video stream if that's any help.

Go to the main site and click "Watch BBC News in Video"

[Biodun]

Alexander, Try 5 Live.
I know they're up all night and will be giving results throughout the night.

[Andrew]

CON HOLD WORCESTER

[Mark Fulford]

What better proof of Conservative efficiency than Conservative councils being the first to declare?

[Richard]

Labour gain one seat from Independent in Worcester. Were the Tories expected to extend their majority here?

[malcolm]

Really tough getting into site.Anyone else having problems?

[Richard]

Oh, and Con hold Basildon.

[andrew]

CON HOLD BRENTWOOD

CON: 27 SEATS
+6

[Richard]

"Really tough getting into site.Anyone else having problems?"

It seemed to be doen for about 10 mins or so.

Good news about Brentwood!

[malcolm]

That's a good hold Andrew.Was Lib Dem until mid 90's when I lived there.Did we take seats from the yellow peril?

[Chris Palmer]

Taunton by-election Lib Dem hold vs Cons

LD 1336 vs Con 436

[Andrew Hickling]

Rumour has it we have gained a ward in birmingham

[Chris Palmer]

Could be a long night...

[Andrew hickling]

Yes Malcolm we gained 8 seats from the LibDems

[Alexander Drake]

Thanks Biodun much obliged. Actually I was listening to Five Live but I was hoping there might be something other than a station that talked about the elections rather than McClaren, and Take That coming back together...ugggh

[mattsimpson]

Labour hold Manchester - anyone know if we succeeded in getting a councillor??

[Editor]

Sorry, Malcolm... you're not the only one having troubles. The site is creaking a bit with heavy traffic. Please bear with us!

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>Tim, Guido, anyone - can you recommend a live audio stream for those of us not in the UK?<<<<
Radio 5 Live are covering it on the Anita Anand and Up All Night Programme, there is a live audio stream here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/fivelive.shtml

[Goldie]

It seems Cameron may poll above 40%.

[Mark Fulford]

Early indications that Lib Dems loosing 2 points. FMS.

[malcolm]

Excellent news from Brentwood.We've lost a seat in Colchester.Bloody students!

[Mark Fulford]

It seems Cameron may poll above 40%.

Did every keystroke hurt?

[andrew]

CON HOLD GREAT YARMOUTH

[Chris Palmer]

"Did every keystroke hurt?"

Bleeding fingers?

Early predictions good. Local variations may play a big part though - did so in Taunton.

[Andrew]

we lose 3 seats to labour in great yarmouth

[Guido Fawkes]

Them pictures reloading take up lots of bandwith.

Aternatively, courtesy of Google's backbone, Iain Dale or myself would no doubt be happy to take the strain.

[Chris]

Yup preliminary national percentages:
CON +3
LAB -1
LIB -2

Any news on manchester, its Labour hold, as we always knew, but have we managed to gain that ever important single councillor?

[mattsimpson]

we have failed to gain our first councillor in newcastle

but have taken control of shrewsbury & atcham council

[andrew]

CON GAIN SHREWSBURY

[Richard]

While I have been skeptical of some of Cameron's strategies I am very pleased to see we are doing well so far.

[Goldie]

@Mark Fulford: Yes.

On the other hand, Howard's 38% vs. Labour 26% at the 2004 locals wasn't really replicated in 2005 Generals, now was it?

[Yet Another Anon]

BBC Local Elections site is here and it's updating as results are changing, not much point in results being posted here as in terms of overall gains and losses in net terms they are behind the actual situation very quickly:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/vote2006/locals/map/html/map.stm

[ANDREW]

We gain 4 seats in Lincoln,labour still hold

[Alexander Drake]

Switched from 5Live to Radio Four. 5 Live on the basis of 100 seats was saying that David Cameron would be allowed to smile tonight. Radio Four faffing around this, can't bring themselves to say it...

[malcolm]

Me too Richard.I thought this 'green' campaign was fairly crap but according to BBC we are up 3% and Libs down 2% so it may have worked.Guess I won't be getting the mug then.

[Chris Palmer]

Labour lost Derby.

[Goldie]

Also, the turn-out is extremely low, this very likely means that the electorate was much OLDER than a General Election electorate and we all know that there are more Tories among the older population.

[andrew]

CON HOLD SWALE
CON HOLD OXFORDSHIRE

[Chris]

Goldie I disagree. I'm a student in Herts, and I've found that almost all of the students who are of voting age have been going out and voting Tory today (I am at a state school not some palace for toffs). In contrast some people like my parents haven't even gone to vote, and they refused even to spoil their ballot papers... sad day for democracy.

[Adrew]

Con gain longbridge ward from labour in birmigham

[Editor]

Camera's battery now flat Guido so no more pictures for a while anyway!

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>While I have been skeptical of some of Cameron's strategies I am very pleased to see we are doing well so far.<<<<
There's not been a lot of correlation between Local Election and General Election results though and generally the longer a party is in government the more strongly Local Election results seem to go against them, back in 1998 they were much the same as for General Election results but increasingly there has been a difference and the same happened in the 1980's, Labour got over 40% in 1989 & 1990 Local Elections and in the 1989 Euro Elections and yet still only got 34.5% of the vote in 1992.

In the late 1970's the Conservative Party was getting half the vote in Local Elections and yet it was considerably lower in the 1979 General Election.

[andrew]

CON LOSE WEST LINDSEY TO NOC

[Henry Whitmarsh]

Radio 4 being wet. Seat for seat Conservatives are whipping Labour.

[Chris]

Just lost West Lindsey to NOC, anyone found any figures? Anyone familiar with local circumstances... wheres Sean Fear?

[Guido Fawkes]

They're coming out of the woodwork now Reid and Hoon getting the excuses in early.

[malcolm]

Wheres West Lindsey?

[Chris Palmer]

and Blunkett, Guido.

[Andrew]

its in lincolnshire i think Malcolm

[Henry Whitmarsh]

Yay, Portsmouth now NOC after we take three off the Lib Dems!

[malcolm]

Seans standing so he's probably at a his count

[Chris Palmer]

Sean is a prospective cllr is he not?

"Yay, Portsmouth now NOC after we take three off the Lib Dems!"

Good news

[Richard]

W Lindsey is in the north of the E Midlands. Was only a slim Tory majority before.

[Chris]

Malcom, Andrew is correct in saying its in Lincolnshire, its the council just above Lincoln itself.

Hertsmere hold...

[Paul, Southampton]

Conservatives have lost two councillors to the Lib-dems in Eastleigh. Puts the Lib-dems on 34, Tories on 7 and Labour on 3.

[Alexander Drake]

Can anyone guess what the results we have so far mean for the CH predictions?

[mattsimpson]

BBC London reporting 16% increase in turnout in Barking & Dagenham

[Richard]

"Conservatives have lost two councillors to the Lib-dems in Eastleigh. Puts the Lib-dems on 34, Tories on 7 and Labour on 3."

It's a Lib Dem feifdom. I expect many voters didn't see the point as the Lib Dems were bound to maintain control.

[Chris Palmer]

Conservatives success in Swindon. In 1998 had 3 Cllrs, now possibly 38!

[Prolix]

CON hold Tandridge

[malcolm]

Alexander, a chap on political betting thought results indicated Labour would lose around 250 seats.Not sure how scientific this is but if true it is not the disaster for Blair predicted.

[wasp]

A broad 3% increase as the BBC is predicting would mean Conservative gains in the region of 120 which is nowhere near enough.

[Richard]

*fiefdem

Labour think the late surge in Barking has benefitted the BNP

[andrew]

CON HOLD TUNBRIDGE WELLS

[Prolix]

Possible swing from Lab to Con in Hastings!

[Chris]

Malcom, it may not be a disaster for Blair, however I feel we may have a disaster for Ming! His party isn't meant to be losing seats, yet he seems to be haemoragging seats!

[wasp]

I saw a Lib Dem leaflet today with a person superimposed on a photo standing next to an MP.

Silly

[malcolm]

That would be good Chris.I thought the LD's were going to do well.Just goes to show ,I know nothing!

[Chris Palmer]

Ok, goodnight. See you and the results in the morning.

[Richard]

Early gain for BNP in Lancashire

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4974870.stm

[andrew]

It seems that so far labour are doing better than expected

[malcolm]

Good night everybody from me too

[Paul, Southampton]

"It's [Eastleigh] a Lib Dem feifdom. I expect many voters didn't see the point as the Lib Dems were bound to maintain control."

Very true. Not helped by the lacklustre performance of the local Conservative Association, I'm afraid.

Better news from Winchester where the Tories have gained one from Labour and one from the Lib-dems.

[Henry Whitmarsh]

The Radio4 spin is that we're not going to make gains in Greater London, restricted to shires ect ect

[Chris]

Any idea when the first London results are due? I thought thats where a large bulk of our target 200+ net seats was meant to come from.

[Richard]

"It seems that so far labour are doing better than expected"

It must be the weather!

[Henry Whitmarsh]

Checkout the BBC interactive map. Overall control might not be shifting but we're moving wards.

[wicks]

3am onwards i think for London results

[Richard]

BBC poll puts Tories ahead of Labour when it comes to trust regarding the NHS.

[Richard]

Tories lost Gosport because of Labour swing to Lib Dems.

[Chris]

BNP are on 4 seats now, anyone know how many are barking and dagenham?

[Richard]

No Tory gain in Manchester. Annoying.

[Chris]

Richard, that sucks :( Any figures on vote percentage gained though?

[EdR]

Elainor Laing is very impressive.

The Sky news channel is painfully bright and loud and at this time of night, especially turning over from the gloomy and nigh-on soporific tone of the BBC coverage.

[Andrew Milne]

Tories hold Eastbourne. Interesting result considering the tightness in the council and general election level.

[Chris]

*Switches to 5 in hope that they ahve sky news feed for evening... sees a penis and switches back to BBC*

I hate not having digital in my bedroom :( Jeremy Vine isn't anywhere near as good as Peter Snow.

[Richard]

Richard, that sucks :( Any figures on vote percentage gained though?

Don't know but in the most promising ward they lost by a few hundred votes according to the BBC.

Glad to hear we kept Eastbourne, if only because my grandparents live there!

[Henry Whitmarsh]

Con gains all over North West. Chin up.

[Chris]

Glad to hear we kept Eastbourne, if only because my grandparents live there!

Not a tremendous ammount of movement there though. I'm eagerly awaiting St Albans to see if a couple of wards have fallen from Lib Dems to us, which means we'd slip further into NOC (Lib Dems currently short of majority by 1 seat).