Deal or no deal, Gordon?

In return for being sure of inheriting the Labour crown in 16 months' time Gordon Brown is being asked to back Tony Blair's reform programme.  That's what today's Sun reports:

"Tony Blair is offering Gordon Brown a dramatic peace deal over succeeding him as Prime Minister.  If sealed, the pact will see Mr Blair quit in just 16 months’ time.  He would step down at Labour’s annual rally in September 2007 after a decade in power.  But in return the Chancellor will have to give the PM total loyalty and support on pushing through a packed programme of reforms."

The Sun Says lists what that package of reforms may involve:

• Foundation hospitals cemented in place
• Education reforms passed
• Longer detention for terror suspects
• Full introduction of ID cards
• Action against organised crime
• New nuclear power plants
• Scrapping "the welfare scam which puts 2.7million people on benefits for life".

Comments

[Annabel Herriott]

Did I or did I not say that TB would step down end of 2007, and leave us in early 2008?? I rest my case! Signed. The late Doris Stokes.

[RobC]

By the time Blair goes, most of the country will be sick and tired of him. By Brown opening supporting some of Blair's last ditch attempts at a legacy (other then the Iraq fiasco), then hopefully the voters will paint Brown with the same brush.

[TimC]

If this is true, it shows how vain Blair has become, desparetely clinging on so he can say that he was prime minister for a decade.

General election in 2007/early 2008?

[William]

Blair has a deal with Brown - again. But what deal does he have with Brussels? He's pushing through things like Funding of State Political Parties, Regulatory Reform (Bypassing parliament, EU Policing Laws, ID Passes - and no doubt his cosy little number in Brussels will be dependent delivery.

[William Norton]

"William": Blair has a deal with Brown - again. But what deal does he have with Brussels?

Can't you ever give it a rest?

[Guido Fawkes]

The sooner the better. The ID cards commitment could turn the next election into a referendum on ID cards. Good territory for the Tories to fight on.

That compromise deal cobbled together in the Lords to put off compulsory ID cards until the next election may turn out to be political genius. (Apparently David Davis was involved.)

It will also, and Guido wonders if the implications of this have sunk in, put the Tories shoulder-to-shoulder with the LibDems against Labour on an issue which both parties are fundamentally and ideologically united on, opposition to an intrusive state over-controlling our lives. Strategically and personally that could have a profound effect on Orange Book LibDem thinking, they may realise that modern Conservatives are their allies against statist Labour.

[William Norton]

Guido: Strategically and personally that could have a profound effect on Orange Book LibDem thinking, they may realise that modern Conservatives are their allies against statist Labour.

Agree. It will be interesting to watch over the next few months how many conservative liberals come to realise that they're really liberal conservatives. Will Guido be running a book on this?

[Serf]

Surely such a deal makes the chance of another challenger arising more likely. After all, if Brown joins the Blairites, where does that leave the Brownites?

[True Blue]

Blair has a deal with Brown - again. But what deal does he have with Brussels? He's pushing through things like Funding of State Political Parties, Regulatory Reform (Bypassing parliament, EU Policing Laws, ID Passes - and no doubt his cosy little number in Brussels will be dependent delivery.

There is another recent thread for this stuff. Why not get over there and answer the questions?

[Richard]

"The ID cards commitment could turn the next election into a referendum on ID cards. Good territory for the Tories to fight on."

Although there is increasing public hostility to ID cards they have been very popular in recent years primarily due to terrorist scares. We might have to be careful about emphasising this topic.

[James Maskell]

The Conservatives should argue that they dont believe in ID Cards and would spend the money saved on securing our borders and tackling illegal immigration. I think its better spent money that way.

[Laughing Cavalier]

Mrs Thatcher was in office for eleven and a half years. This Cavalier finds it hard to believe that the Dear Leader will be content to go to whatever "well" earned sinecure he has in mind without having beaten her record. That means that he will remain in office until at least the late Autumn of 2008. By that time El Gordo's chickens will be well and truly home to roost; he'll be yesterday's man. I'd bet my last biscuit on his never being Primeminister

[True Blue]

t will also, and Guido wonders if the implications of this have sunk in, put the Tories shoulder-to-shoulder with the LibDems against Labour on an issue which both parties are fundamentally and ideologically united on, opposition to an intrusive state over-controlling our lives. Strategically and personally that could have a profound effect on Orange Book LibDem thinking, they may realise that modern Conservatives are their allies against statist Labour.

I'm totally against compulsory ID cards, believe 90 days is too long, etc. The problem is that the British people are strongly in favour of these measures. It would be great if we could build a manifesto with these commitments, but they aren't popular amongst the electorate. It would give a mixed message on crime and let Labour outflank us. I would certainly support the strategy, but it is risky.

[William]

William Norton, are you suggesting that Blair does not have the phone number to the EU?

It seems quite obvious that a large part of the current legislative programme has its origins there. Isn't that a fair topic for us to discuss, in the context of how this fits in with Blair's succession?

Blair will broadly retain the support of the media if he continues with the EU legislative programme. The BBC is under the cosh, and Murdoch'll keep Mum if the Competition Commissioner allows him to keep his privileges.

The Guardian will play this straight down the middle, anxious to keep in with all sides. The Express and Mail will take a few swipes as they can.

If the real power to decide Blair's future retirement date lay within the party, he would be in far more trouble than he is. With the BBC and Murdoch behind him (and the continuing support of Brussels), he should pull through, as he usually does - although the temperature is clearly rising.

Maybe the EU don't trust Brown, as he blocked the Euro, and they want Blair to hang on, secure the legislative programme and build an alternative successor.

I believe that I'm bang on topic here, but if my theories are too much for others to tolerate, then the Editor can call me in again. I guess that the pattern of power dissemination that many here think within is different from the one that I see. That does not mean I am wrong.

[christina speight]

Tom Bower, the biographer of Gordon Brown [though not an admirer] wrote this week* that Blair's main motivation right now is his determination to keep Brown out of No:10 because he believes that Brown is "the enemy of the middle classes", will scrap foundation hospitals, School Academies, and will continue with policies that have wrecked pensions, raised taxes and upset planning for inheritance. Blair dislikes means-tested pensions which is a cornerstone of Brown's strategy.

For this reason - Bower says - Blair is clinging on to let either John Reid or Alan Johnson snatch the crown from Brown

..............* Evening Standard --- ?8/5/06

[William Norton]

William: William Norton, are you suggesting that Blair does not have the phone number to the EU?...[EU control of legislation...media control of opinion...Guardian bunch of traitors...Brussels plot to hijack succession....green lizards really running things...]...That does not mean I am wrong.

I didn't say I thought you were wrong. I said I thought you were being a little, ahem, repetitive.

[William]

You mean. You are not.

e.g. It will be interesting to watch over the next few months how many conservative liberals come to realise that they're really liberal conservatives..zzzzzzzzzzz

Wake me up when he's done.......

[Account Deleted]

Fighting a battle over civil liberties issues like ID cards/90 days would be a serious mistake. Most people are not particularly for or against them, and anyone we win over we are likely to lose. More crucially we would be seen as irrelevant in the key areas of a) the economy b) public services. Even if it were popular, it wouldn't be enough to make people vote for us as it is such a low level priority. (See Europe and the 2001 campaign, and Immigration in the 2005 campaign.)

On crime and anti-social behaviour it also makes us, I hate to say it, seem wishy washy, and we would lose a key group of C1 voters. People don't have time to focus too much on what we are doing.

If, in Home Affairs, people think of us as being preoccupied with civil liberties it detracts from one of our key areas, being firm on law and order and immigration. (The two areas we had poll leads on in the 2005 election.)

We could turn ID cards into a competence issue - that Labour are the party of expensive gimmicks rather than the nitty gritty of detail. But I think it would fall right into Gordon Brown's only card - that the Tories are out of touch and you can only trust 'solid Gordon', who will focus on key issues like security/public services/the economy.

[Graeme Archer]

I think - though I can't prove - you're a wee bit too pessimistic about the power of ID cards to have an extremely strong "message hit" in a core group of voters. I agree though 1AM it should not dominate the campaign; people will only listen to us at all if we seem sound and safe on the economy.

[Account Deleted]

I may be allowing personal opinion to influence my political opinion. Personally I dislike the whole ID card debate - on the one hand I am sure it is a gimmick on the other, well, it appeals to my limited but firm idea of Government.

I think we would lose as many as we gain (at best) if we allow our Home Affairs brief to focus on Civil Liberties at the expense of being firm on crime and immigration. Ask John Howard and George Bush what strengthening as opposed to softening stances in these areas does to Tory politicians...

Not to say we shouldn't focus more on drug treatment/ rehab as well, but they don't detract from an overall firm grip on these issues. ID cards are a distraction (for everyone I fear).

[William]

If Brown is not trusted in Brussels he won't get the backing he needs from there to get the Labour Party leadership. He can attack TB as much as likes. He should address the organ grinder, not the monkey.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

Smithson also tipped Alan Johnson as the likeliest challenger to Brown today - an assessment I would agree with.

The line-up of supporters behind Johnson (compared to avowed Brownites) is likely to be more impressive (for want of a better, more appropriate word) as well.