Labour hit 19 year low

An ICM survey for today's Guardian makes grim reading for Tony Blair.  Labour is at its lowest level - in an ICM opinion poll - since 1987.  Labour is down 3% on the last ICM poll (for Channel 4) and 5% down on the last ICM poll for The Guardian.   ICM doesn't appear to offer any numbers on the BNP.

Anyone who saw the sanctimonious Patricia Hewitt address yesterday's Unison conference will know that Labour has a real problem with its base.  A Labour health secretary - who is presiding over a massive health budget - was treated with stoney coldness by a union that hates even the most timid steps towards reform and the use of the private sector.  Downing Street must fear a real collapse in turnout amongst its supporters next week.  This ICM survey was taken before voters had digested Ms Hewitt's 'the NHS is having its best year' remarks.  88.43% of 9,941 voters on a BBC Online poll disagreed with the Health Secretary.

Such a collapse in turnout will help the Tories who are flatlining in the ICM surveys.  The LibDems will be most hopeful about 4th May.  At 24% the LibDems appear to have suffered no lasting damage from the Oaten and Kennedy problems of January.

ICM also found that Menzies Campbell's party was most trusted on the environment.  29% thought that the LibDems were the best party to protect the environment.  22% opted for the Tories (at this early stage of David Cameron's green campaign) and just 17% chose Labour.

Comments

[Jaz Hayre]

Are we looking at a labour collapse?

[free democrat]

How do the Lib Dems do it? Up 3 points on the back of virtual anonymity in the last few weeks...

[Henry Cook]

Interesting comparison for you:

These council seats were last fought in 2002. The Guardian/ICM April survey conducted just before the elections gave the following figures: Con:29% Lab:45% LD:18%. The national shares of the vote in the local elections turned out to be Con:34% Lab:32% LD:27%. Therefore the Tories were boosted by 5%, Labour lost 13% and the Lib Dems gained 9%.

If similar things happened this time around, Labour could be in the low 20s, the Tories approaching 40% and the Lib Dems above 30%. Although a crude analysis, it is certainly food for thought. Surely Blair could not carry on if the results are anywhere near as bad as this hypothesis suggests?

[John Hustings]

If this is a Labour collapse, it doesn't appear to be the Tories who are the beneficiaries. The Tories are still failing to capitalise on an extremely ropey time for the government.

[Sean Fear]

Regardless of the Tory figure, it certainy points to a rotten result for Labour on May 4th.

[Alexander Drake]

So how do you propose we have a crack at hoovering up that vote that appears to have swung from Lab to LD, John?

[John Hustings]

"So how do you propose we have a crack at hoovering up that vote that appears to have swung from Lab to LD, John?"

I have given my opinion on what I think the Tory strategy should be elsewhere (namely in the platform section).

[Rick]

I do so like Patricia Hewitt and Charles Clarke. At once you get an insight into what it is to be the progeny of senior civil servants, Permmanent Secretaries both. Clarke pere at The Treasury and Hewitt pere at the Australian quangocracy in Canberra.

The disdainful, contemptuous, mendacious, scornful approach to those around hem that they cannot deceive, reveals an insight into the parental home that speaks volumes about the unelected governance of Anglo-Saxon polities

[Ted]

According to politicalbetting BNP is at 2% in poll - so the YouGov result may well have been a flash result with Hodge/BBC publicity driving it.

[Suggestion]

This is an excellent poll for us but I expect the locals to prove better on the day.

[Alexander Drake]

I didn't ask a general question about Tory strategy John. I asked what you thought would be the right approach to appeal to voters that appear to be 'in play' - i.e., voters that instead of going from Lab to Con, have gone Lab to LD.

[Chris]

Well I think that this is a definite sign that if we proposed free private schooling for all children whose parents belong to the Tory party, lowered the higher tax rate to 25% and abolished the NHS, not forgetting to implement our new trademark "shoot all the darkies" policy then we'd definitely be able to get hold of the 3% that slipped to the Lib Dems ;) I mean after all thats what the Lib dems are presenting, right?

[Wat Tyler]

Rick- "The disdainful, contemptuous, mendacious, scornful approach to those around them that they cannot deceive, reveals an insight into the parental home that speaks volumes about the unelected governance of Anglo-Saxon polities"

I like that.

But why oh why oh why oh why...

Just when the nation is being given an object lesson in why politicos can't spend us to public service Nirvana, we're mushing huskies.

Doh!

[Zhukov]

Chris is obviously taking the wee-wee but he has a point. The GE isn't for a few years and the NHS et al is not going to be in any better state.

By "mushing huskies" we will permit the public to listen to us on public service reform at a later and more crucial time.

[Still Laughing]

Are we meant to be happy that, against stagnant 3rd term Tony Blair, Dave still has us in second place? with the poll rating we have now had forever.

[Robl]

Still Laughing, Not sure what poll you're looking at. We are 2% ahead in this poll?!

[William]

Looks like the internet polling pre general election, when labour's vote had collapsed to a par with the LD's - One Big Vote. Before all the usual hoots of derision, NB that OBV got the result right as regards Con and LD.

While canvassing I met many labour voters who said they were not backing Blair any more. After the election I met other old Labour voters saying they wondered who had voted for Blair because they and their friends hadn't done.

At the general election there were between 4 and 6 million (depending on who you believe) unaudited postal votes to bale Blair out. I wonder how many postal votes he's managed to get organised this time.

It's because the Europhiles see the end of the Blair era that they've manoevred Cameron into the Conservative leadership. Of course their safest bet is to promote the LD's who are pro-EU than see a substantial COnservative victory. The less eurosceptic MP's at Westminster the happier the media and their controllers will be.

[Deputy Editor]

I think he's referring to the aggregated poll of polls, Robl.

[Chris]

Rob, the sad thing is despite us being 2% ahead in the poll we are still miles behind Labour in terms of seats. Electoral Calculus has:
CON 239
LAB 307
LIB 68

In order for us to ever get a majority we have to breach the 40% mark, it sucks I know, but at least we can claim a real mandate.

[Robl]

Given the dynamics revealed in these opinion polls that Labour's support is collapsing, some switching to the Lid Dems (probably in tradtional Labour strongholds) we need to redouble our efforts to appeal to these 'floating' voters. I personally think that the environmentally focussed local election campaing (Huskies and all) has been really well executed, has real substance and appeal. I overheard some people who had always voted Labour in a cafe talking about our policies on the environment in positive terms. Given the dynamics now is the time to redouble our effort, like with the environmental stuff, on deepening and widening our appeal.

[kingbongo]

If this poll is replicated it could be worrying for Labour but I don't think we should get too excited about an imminent Labour collapse.

Having said that it would be nice to see them flatlining at 32% for ten or twelve years!

In the Guardian it said we are winning back the vote of professionals and this is very important. I think we should also make much more effort to win over traditional working class voters.

We can do this by showing them that fear is being used to control them and that the solution is more local power and increased control over their own lives. Still thinking on how this can be wedged into 'vote blue go green'

[Annabel Herriott]

I wonder if the Horrid Hewitt will temper her remarks when addressing the Royal College of Nursing congress currently meeting in Bournemouth?? That lady has a LOT of back peddling to do for sure! Wonder if she has a secret little earpiece from Bliar telling her what to say?

[Ted]

Agree that we need to start on widening the message especially to the disenchanted skilled/semi skilled - I think flatlining at 32% is too generous, 25% looks a better target!

Polly at the Guardian is obviously worried we might open a new front based on IDS's work - a strange, meandering piece about our committment to marriage where she drops occasional bilious comments and seems to suggest that IDS has transmogrified into a CoE Evangelical. Couldn't understand what point she was making except that the Tories are pro-marriage, possibly influenced by Christianity and therefore likely to drive up child poverty, possibly re-introduce the workhouse...

[William]

Toynbee is no doubt puzzled as I am, as to why Conservative MPs dumped the only leader they have had that achieved the magical 40% in the polls - IDS.

Conservative MP's also backed an unknown in Cameron because he was getting the media. Fox would have delivered a guaranteed eurosceptic Conservative vote-winning programme a la IDS, but the media balnked him completely, which confused Conservative MP's into not backing their own policies.

I am sure the media cannot believe their luck that they've conned Conservative MP's into picking wrong leaders on each occasion.

She's keen to keep the lid on us while they've got us over into the Europhile camp. A bit of IDS bashing is only to be expected. Toynbee et al are terrified in case the penny drops.

[johnC]

I think the husky-mushing came across rather well in the media. Cameron needs to follow it up with a trip to Darfur and the East African drought countries to show that he cares about human rights and international development as well as the environment.

[Andy Stidwill]

"How do the Lib Dems do it? Up 3 points on the back of virtual anonymity in the last few weeks..."

IMHO, we have to face up to the fact that the part of the electorate which is most increasing - ie, prosperous, environmentally-conscious, well-educated, middle-class professionals - are the part of the electorate which has always been most willing to consider voting for the Lib Dems.

Conversely, that part of the electorate which has always tribally supported both the Conservatives and Labour is in decline. Both the main parties have traditionally relied on a kind of deferential support from their respective bases. But deferential support of any kind is starting to disappear.

Nearly everyone now votes for a party because they've made a rational decision to do so, not because "that's how they've always voted in the past". That change automatically benefits the Lib Dems. That's why I'm not too surprised to see them back up at 24% of the vote in this poll.

[Sean Fear]

IMHO, we have to face up to the fact that "the part of the electorate which is most increasing - ie, prosperous, environmentally-conscious, well-educated, middle-class professionals - are the part of the electorate which has always been most willing to consider voting for the Lib Dems."

They may be increasing, but they're still not a very numerous group. In fact, Lib Dem support is very much rag bag of different groups. As we see in the European elections, much Lib Dem support is a protest vote which can just as easily switch to UKIP/BNP/Greens etc.

[True Blue]

Cameron is doing well amongst the professionals, but does not yet have youth appeal. When they believe what he is saying and isn't just trying to "hang with the kids" like some middle-aged leftie, that should pick up.

If people are truly disillusioned with Labour, and Cameron keeps us on an even keel, and most importantly, there is no internal dissent reported in the papers, then we have a shot at the next election. I still can't see an overall majority, but we have a chance.

If I were Labour, I'd kick Blair into touch ASAP and promote Brown as a safe pair of hands untainted by recent scandals. If Labour do badly on 4th May, then I think the Big Bad Blair will have to go.

[Andy Stidwill]

It's true that the Lib Dem vote is quite soft, especially in Euro-elections, but after Ming Campbell's mauling at the hands of Frank Luntz's focus group a few days ago, 24% is quite an impressive rating.

[comstock]

"despite us being 2% ahead in the poll we are still miles behind Labour in terms of seats. Electoral Calculus has:
CON 239
LAB 307
LIB 68"

That would be a hung parliament, wouldn't it?

Whats the winning post these days 320?

[Cllr Iain Lindley]

Blair has just been on This Morning, interviewed by Fern Britton whilst wearing a tracksuit... must be in trouble!

[Patsy Sergeant]

I think people are doing what they always do when they are fed-up with the two main parties, and that is plump for LibDems. They know they will not get a majority at an election, but what they seem unable to grasp, or don't care about is the effect that that useless vote has, i.e. to keep in power one of the parties that they have decided they don't like. And if they could remember what they voted when later on policies are put in place, that effect them radically, or they violently disapprove of, it might just persuade them to make a better use of their vote another time. I am talking about people who use the LibDem's for a protest vote, NOT people who vote LibDem from conviction.

I agree with Zhukov at 9.19, maybe, who knows, out here anyway, that there has been some clever planning to justify that large salary!

Annabel did you read Rick at 7.13? I think there is a lot of truth in what he says.

[michael]

I think it's a mistake just to say people vote Lib dem 'cos they're fed-up with the two main parties.

Firstly, I'm not sure people are fed-up with the Conservatives, but more impotantly we need to understand why 24% support the Lib Dems and how we can win over that support - or even 10% of it, which we need to win an Election.

[AlexW]

Chris: Does that account for the Boundary Commission's review? I am fairly sure that we gain about 10 seats and Labour lose about as many. Even so, we would still be well short of a majority.

I think what much of the analysis here has missed is that there are different types of "floating" voter. A patriotic small businessman who supported the war in Iraq and is principally concerned about the economy might "float" between Labour and us, but never countenance the LibDems. Conversely, a leftist student might "float" between Labour and the LibDems and never dream of voting Tory. I wonder whether it is the second type of floating voter which are floating off to the LibDems, and the first which is still sticking with Labour. Comparisons with 1987 are therefore slightly misleading, when Labour were more likely to attract the second type of floating voter but the first would have backed Maggie.

In order to capture sort of voter, we need to press hard on economic policy, public service reform as well as more traditional areas such as law and order and taxation. Cameron has done well in negating many of the reasons why voters *shouldn't* vote for us (because we're nasty, don't care about the environment etc.) but we also need to articulate a positive message, and at the moment any positive message is a bit too narrow.

[Rick]

Firstly, I'm not sure people are fed-up with the Conservatives

Travel broadens the mind - I suggest you do some around the country

[michael]

Can I join you Rick on your tour of the nation?

While I know we aren't yet the 'popular' party, I just don't get the impression voters are "fed-up" with us. Fed-up with what exactly? we haven't been in Government for 9 years.

Though that isn't my point - we need to understand the nature of Lib Dem support and then change to win that support while at the same time defining the Lib Dems - something they are unable to do for themselves (nationally I mean).

[Alexander Drake]

LOL Michael, 'change to win' goes down like a lead balloon with some people on this site... : )

[Ted]

A split opposition makes our job easier - moves from Labour to Lib Dems mean the winning post under FPTP is lower.
What we really want is increased LD strength in Labour/LD marginals and Labour strongholds while rebuilding our strength in Cons/LD & Cons/Lab areas.

That balances the existing inbuilt Labour bias. Even on current numbers for example an unwinding of the LD tactical votes for Labour we saw in 1997 through to last year (though lower last year) would result in a more balanced result. If for example we saw Labour drop to 31% with us on 35% and LDs on 25% with unwind of anti-Tory tactical votes we could become the major party in a hung parliament.

It's unlikely the Conservatives could form a majority at next election, though not impossible but it is very possible we gain largest party status.

[James Maskell]

Considering how the Lib Dem vote collapsed prior to Campbell, this is just it going back up to its normal level. Theres nothing to worry about.

[Annabel Herriott]

So, Patsy, are we having any bets on what the nurses will do to her once she is on their podium???? My money is on Malone!

[Rick]

we need to understand the nature of Lib Dem support and then change to win that support

Just where do you live ? The turnout at the last General Election was 61% in part because the whole North of England was forced into postal voting which inspired even the dead to return to vote and in this area young babies received their very own ballot.

So before you hare off disguised as True LibDem ask youself why 40% abstentions represent the single biggest voting bloc ?

You sound like someone has ben giving you some Spiel about the LibDems being the repository of Tory votes whereas Tory voters just stay home and wonder who they next Tory leader will be this year.

If you really believe people vote LibDem because they want to vote Conservative you are in for a rude awakening.

[Richard]

"How do the Lib Dems do it? Up 3 points on the back of virtual anonymity in the last few weeks..."

Probably because they've avoided negative publicity.

[Rick]

My money is on Malone!

Who is a bit ineffectual but extremely well-remunerated. The RCN has a no-strike policy and is small - Unison is what scares Hewitt because they a) have a more militant approach b) are paymasters of the Labour Party c) have local govt workers too

Then again the RCN pushed for graduate nurses which has contributed to unemployment by keeping them out of the manpower planning as spending ramped up - now they graduate into cuts in the interim Filippina nurses inter alia are doing the work they should have been doing and Filippina nurses are good whereas graduate nurses want to be administrators

The ig increase in nursing numbers was at NHS Direct and now that PCTs are to become non-commissioning Nurses face a bleak future as employees of US Providers or having to form their own businesses. Priatisation of the NHS is well underway and the Texan adviser at the DoH is providing the inputs

[michael]

Thanks rick.

Erm, I live in the North of Engalnd actually and am an activist in the City of Durham.

Have a look at our election figures since 1992, reconsider your post and get back to me.

[Chris Palmer]

"If you really believe people vote LibDem because they want to vote Conservative you are in for a rude awakening." - Rick

As you are in for a rude awakening if you imagine that more than 20% of those who vote Lib Dem do so with any conviction.

[michael]

Quite right Chris - Lib Dem support is very soft and contains a lot of former Tory voters - we need to understand why those people still find it more attractive to put their cross in the Lib Dem box, rather than the Conservative box and seek to turn that around.

[i feel conned]

I thought we were promised "change to win" not "throw away your belief to stay where we were".

IDS did better than this in the polls. Pehaps we need operation Camerongate....white powered rather than expenses perhaps, or a little affair

[Editor]

Thanks for the BNP at 2% number, Ted.

My guess is that it is a lot lower than YouGov's 7% because people are more reluctant to admit to their BNP affiliation to an ICM telephonist than YouGov's computer.

[Gareth]

My canvassing in this campaign has mostly been in a lower middle class/working class seat in B'ham. The ward is split with 2 tories and 1 socialist, with a tory up this year. Last night, for the first time in 6 weeks of canvassing, several voters mentioned the BNP. A few of our people were also very coy about saying who they were voting for this time. I have a horrible feeling that something is stirring in the undergrowth and that we could see a BNP surge, in much the same way that UKIP came from no where in the last Euros. I earnestly hope I'm wrong.

[Edward]

How do the LibDems do it? With party funding and a certain amount of bickering over it people are dissatisfied with "same old". The LibDems still seems different enough as they are not a truly national political party so people feel they can dump their dissatisfied vote with them with no fear of being hurt by it.

[Ted]

Gareth
It can't be a UKIP moment because the BNP are standing in only a few areas. But I think they may very well do better than before the ill-considered Hodge / BBC/ Rowntree publicity drive supported by newspapers doing specific polls (latest one by YouGov shows high levels of support across the board for BNP policies with IMHO not too large a fall when these are associated with the BNP).

It shows that immigration remains a major issue and that many people are concerned about immigration (not just the BNP target groupings). Stories like that just breaking that over 1,000 foreign criminals who should have been deported were instead freed and Home Office has little idea where they are don't help either.

[Richard]

Erm, I live in the North of Engalnd actually and am an activist in the City of Durham.

A student activist ?

Noone takes a university town as typical of anything. In Yorkshire things are relatively Conservative-free, they seem to have little real presence outside the North Yorkshire farming belt.

[Rick]

over 1,000 foreign criminals who should have been deported were instead freed and Home Office has little idea where they are don't help either.

Which makes the timing of the admission highly suspicious - either there were 5000 not 1000 or one of the dailies was going to blow the gaffe tomorrow

[the Prince]

I swear the government is tempting us with these figures about 1000 foreign criminals on the loose ... ... my god immigrants and criminals ... if we go on about this Labour will point at us and say we haven't changed ... but it is just soooooo tempting.

[Goldie]

You guys are misisng the story. These numbers are nothing short of disastrous, not to mention pathetic.

This Labour government is at rock bottom. Finally the numbers are starting to reflect this. The LibDems have had their worst six months in 15 years.

But the Tories are not benefiting. Despite "Dave" and his soft socialism, people still have not confidence whatsoever in the Conservative Party. A vigorous opposition party should be well ahead of Labour right now, and I'm talking 5,7,10 points ahead, and certainly above 40%.

These polls are an indicication that the voters have no faith in the Government and no faith in the Oppososition.

I can't blame them. Pity Brittania.

[Suggestion]

Never mind about immigrants and criminals, this is Labour's fault. Labour let these guys go. Why? Another IT failure?

Labour has a lamentable record of supervising criminals on release from prison, any kind of criminal.

Cameron recently said in the NOTW that he would make criminals serve their full sentences and that society "needed a break" from persistent offenders.

Hear hear.

[J.W.Tozer]

Gosh another day another poll and everyone starts talking gibberish!!

As I pointed out the other day, what you have had for some time is the flitting 5%. Broadly left of centre voters of the Guardian/Independant reading type, who have bounced beween Lab/LD. They had a brief affair with Cameron, then decided to go back to their natural home the LD's. Labour is not at all worried about the Con's, its hanging onto the flitting 5% that does. Ever since Iraq, they've been P****d of with Blair.

The Conservative party is still unable to raise its game, note Charles Clarke,s speech its the Liberal/Left he and every other Labour politician is worried about.The Independant/Guardian/Observer columnists and journalists are producing the sort of coherent attack on the government that's causing them problems.

The advantage the LD's have is they are also attracting the votes of the POWTOT's (P****D OFF WITH THE OTHER TWO) and they aren't that bothered about things like leaders, policies etc, the fact they are anti-war, and are perceived as leftish is enough.

If there is a hung parliament after the next general, what could be the result. Will the Tories negotiate with the LD's, So Ming for Foreign secretary, then sign up for the Euro, Federalism and of course P.R.: don't think so!

Labour on the other hand who knows! We could be heading for interesting times.

Oh, why all the criticism of Ms Toynbee, if DC reamins leader, I'll bet the next Conservative Manifesto, the section on working women, will come straight from the Polly Toynbee song book, Melanie Phillips eat your heart out..

[michael]

"A student activist ?"

No Richard, I'm a member of the Association and have been for 10 years.

I wish the Lib Dem vote in Durham was just made up of the student population, as the student vote is actually now shifting our way.

Unfortunately since 1992, the decline in our vote to the Lib Dems has included the constituency vote too. Though the 2005 massive swing to the Lib Dems was made up in part of a tactical vote attempt to oust Labour. our challenge in Durham and in much of the North East is to convince people that we can oust Labour - a Tory vote isn't a wasted vote.

[Graeme Archer]

I haven't read the comments but it does amaze me how everyone reacts to these polls. I keep saying this: the poll of polls methodology is so flawed as to render the headline figure on the website meaningless (at best). Each pollster produces a biased estimate of the true Tory support. Suppose only two polling agencies exist, which give estimates t1 and t2. Each estimate is biased, by different amounts, from the true Tory support T. So E(t1)=T+b1 and E(t2)=T+b2 where I am taking expectation wrt the sampling distributions of each. So you produce a poll of polls by adding t1 and t2 together and averaging. So your "estimate" of Tory support is, in expectation, (T+b1+T+b2)/2 = T+(b1+b2)/2.

This estimator does NOT tend to T either as the number of pollsters increases or as the number of months pass.

It is biased, and what's worse, you don't know whether positively or negatively.

[Umbongo]

Goldie

Couldn't agree with you more.

If the polls are any indication of the truth then the truth is, to say the least, a disaster for the party. Anecdote tells me - talking with my neighbours (supporters of all 3 major parties) in what should be a "natural" Conservative London constituency (Hornsey & Wood Green - once Sir Hugh Rossi's seat, now a safeish LibDem seat both nationally and locally) - that although vaguely interested in DC's cavortings in Norway, ecology is furthest away from their concerns. They (and I) cannot understand why now, when pre-DC party policies might appeal to a wider electorate, DC has junked those policies and is going for the Blair effect. It's worse than pathetic it's stupid.

[Richard]

"They had a brief affair with Cameron, then decided to go back to their natural home the LD's. Labour is not at all worried about the Con's, its hanging onto the flitting 5% that does. Ever since Iraq, they've been P****d of with Blair."

Then one must ask what happened to those who voted Tory back in 1992. I fear that since over a decade has passed it may be too simplistic to assume we can somehow win them back. Many will have died and the number of anti-Tory young people has increased.

[michael]

Richard, that was my point to rick. We can't content ourselves with the thought that since 1992, all those Conservatives in the City of Durham and elsewhere in the North East have been sitting at home waiting for the day when they can fling open their front doors and dash out to vote Conservative once again. Yes turnout has fallen, but that isn't in proportion to the decline in our vote, so we can't say the fall in our vote is down to stay at homes. The fact is that regionally a lot of our vote has gone Lib Dem. If I had a pound for every time a voter has told me they would normally vote Conservative, but they are voting Lib Dem to get Labour out, then I would have enough money to buy myself a Labour Peerage. Anyway, if a voter is staying at home or voting Lib Dem it's largely academic as either way, they aren't voting for us.

We have to attract those people back.

[Richard]

For the record I'm not the Richard who made the post about Yorkshire.

[Rick]

Agreed you are not. It was myself with a typo. Apologies for putting you in the frame Richard - hope they didn't beat you too severely !

[Rick]

Sir Hugh Rossi's seat

We used to call his daughter "Vermouth" at University

[Richard]

Cameron recently said in the NOTW that he would make criminals serve their full sentences and that society "needed a break" from persistent offenders.

Amazing ! Where will he build the new prisons ? How many billion will he invest ? Where will he re-open courts they have closed so many.

Why not read the Blog "West of Ealing" by a Magistrate about the shambles they deal with each day ?

This country has a National Debt of £459 billion excluding PFI and Pension Liabilities which probably add a further £600 billion; the National Debt has increased 46% in just 4 years under Prudence Brown.

There will be no money in future - like Mother Hubbard the cupboard will be bare. The country wil have a huge Oil Deficit on the BofP and a large tax increase to fund the PSBR at the same time that it needs to deflate house prices.

It is more likely a future Govt will relive 1992 than 1997

[eugene]

Labour is collapsing. This poll taken before we found out that 1000 dangerous criminals have been let out in error....and Comrade Hewitt's remarks had not quite sunk in.Labour have the same problems the Tories had in 1994-banana skins. They are a corrupt government on their way out.

[Jack Stone]

Some very strange comments!
First we have someone who is so keen to talk the Conservative Party down he trys to make out that a poll showing the party on 34% and Labour on 32% actually means that Labour are in the lead. Can only think we have another UKIP nutter here.
Then we have someone suggesting that David Cameron is a Socialist. I am afraid that anyone who for a moment thinks DC is a Socialist is also likely to think that Hitler was a Liberal!Absolutely absurd
I wish people who haven`t got anything sensible to say would say nothing.

[Patsy Sergeant]

If you wanted to know why the LibDems have gone up in the Polls, you only needed to listen to the PPB just now, apart from extolling Campbell so that the punter would know who he was and which party he belonged to, the PPB said all the things that the average person wants to hear. I don't vote LD, but I found it persuasive.

I am afraid when it comes down to basics (so to speak!), Norway doesn't score very highly alongside cock-ups of the nature that have been admitted today. I think we should encourage Mr. Cameron if he says he plans to build more prisons, not scoff about where on earth the money would come from - demolish a few Labour/Socialist quangoes, and remove the 'advisors' that seem to have sprung up all over the place.

[Richard]

"I am afraid that anyone who for a moment thinks DC is a Socialist is also likely to think that Hitler was a Liberal!Absolutely absurd"

Well, since you mentioned it:

http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/12765.html

Naturally it is good that the Tories are doing better than Labour. However, 34% still strikes me as a little too low. I'm not expecting them to be at 40% at this stage - we still don't know key policies yet. Let us hope that Cameron doesn't put too much emphasis on the environment. It would be interesting to hear him say something about mroe mainstream issues without getting trapped into sticking to crime and immigration.

[John Hustings]

"I wish people who haven`t got anything sensible to say would say nothing."

Perhaps you should apply that test to yourself, Jack.

[Richard]

"Perhaps you should apply that test to yourself, Jack."

Now we know he's a UKIP supporter trying to stir up trouble I find his posts entertaining. I actually look forward to them!

[houndtang]

If left of centre Labour voters are disenchanted with Labour they are not going to vote for a right of centre party. Therefore they vote Lib Dem - seems fairly obvious.

[Richard]

"If left of centre Labour voters are disenchanted with Labour they are not going to vote for a right of centre party. Therefore they vote Lib Dem - seems fairly obvious."

Indeed. Perhaps the problem is that there just aren't enough right-of-centre voters out there, at least on economic issues.

[Goldie]

Jack Stone writes, dismissively, about someone arguing that a poll showing the party on 34% and Labour on 32% actually means that Labour are in the lead.

Of course, that is exactly what it means. If this is the results at the next general elections, Gordon Brown will be prime minister.

[Rick]

I wish people who haven`t got anything sensible to say would say nothing.

Posted by: Jack Stone | April 25, 2006 at 19:01

Practising what you preach is sound advice, Jack !

[Patsy Sergeant]

Annabel I would like to think that on some pretext some nurses would stick some blunt needles into Ms. Hewitt, but that is just a fantasy.

I also feel though that it is a pity that nurses seem to be encouraged to think that going to university to 'learn nursing' is what makes them a good nurse, because it doesn't, and it may well be inclined to make some people feel that bedpans, and bedsores, and coping with vomitting is 'beneath' them! What is it - 'Too many chiefs and not enough indians or just caring nurses'.

[Annabel Herriott]

Patsy, I couldnt agree more! Project 200 wasnt it, when the rot started? Then the Salmon report, bringing managers into community nursing? Fat lot of good that did. AND a few idiots got moved sideways into management on the back of that! Malone may be ineffective as a previous poster said, BUT the media will be gagging for another pop at Hewitt will they not?? Wonder if she will duck out of the RCN gig?

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>Having said that it would be nice to see them flatlining at 32% for ten or twelve years!<<<<
Surely it would be desirable to see indefinite government of the finest and political enemies utterly destroyed for ever.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

Tom Bradby has just reported that a Sun poll tomorrow will be even worse for Labour.

[Ted]

Patsy, Annabel

OT - During a terrible stay a couple of years ago (where the nursing staff was different every day and so no one noticed I was about to expire with pneumonia) the nurse who efficiently cleaned the ward, put the equipment back where it could be found, changed bedclothes, washed patients and found time to chat to us (isolated because of MRSA) all in less time and better than any other nurse did just one of those was a nurse-consultant temping as agency nurse.

She said that it wasn't just the money but she enjoyed being a real nurse for once.

[Patsy Sergeant]

Ted - May I ask please what does OT mean, I often see it, I know 'imo' & 'imho', but there others I don't have a clue about?

About your comment on your experience with the nurse, there are always going to be exceptions to every 'rule'. I only remember from my recent experience with my partner in intensive care, the heirachy seemed to be either head nurses or ward maids, I suppose they would have some other fancy name nowadays. Maybe I am wrong, but there doesn't seem to be a heirachy any more - 1st year, 2nd year and so on until you became a staff nurse. I think this progression gave one the incentive to care about ones work in order to get to the next level. What actual incentives are there now apart from aiming to become part of managment, or endlessly wanting more money?

[Rick]

"OT" = Off Topic

[Patsy Sergeant]

Thank you Rick!