Is this MORI poll believable?

MORI's polls are routinely more variable than the other pollsters and the polling organisation's latest survey - for today's Sun - is more volatile than most.  It has certainly caused a large movement in ConservativeHome's poll of polls - putting the LibDems above 20% for the first time since the fallout from Charles Kennedy's resignation.

Whether the poll's exact numbers are accurate the survey is in line with movements in other polls (as with yesterday's ICM survey).  We are observing big falls in Labour support and we are seeing the LibDems - rather than the Tories - benefiting from Labour's unpopularity.

Comments

[James Hellyer]

It's not entirely surprising that the Lib Deems would benefit from many of the government's current problems. The supporters Labour is having the most trouble with - as was the case at the general election - are from it's left (as could be seen when Patricia Hewitt was heckled by UNISON).Such people are far more likely to switch their allegiance, even just as a protest, to the Lib Dems.

Although MORI polls are generally more volative than any other pollster's, if correct these figures would show that David Cameron's strategy isn't only not working, but failing. Faced with a government apparently on the skids, his only consolation would be to have lost less support than the government.

[Ted]

Yes seems to be the answer.

Mori is more volatile, it has a worse record but in general terms the Labour Party are losing support massively and the Conservatives are going backwards in a range of polls.

We can turn it around, not sure Labour can as easily.

[Suggestion]

Agree. Yes. It's not believable. Mori is rubbish.

In general I feel the polls are doing us down. I suppose we will see at the locals.

[Tim Aker]

Seems people are voting Green, going Green while our voters are scurrying to the BNP as the Lib Dems swepe up the rest.

I think come the morning of may 5th, people will reflect on this as the election people protested against the Blair/Cameron duopoly at the centre. And rightly so!

[Chad]

The Evening Standard had an article on this rise of independent candidates this week and now the Times has an article (link here)questioning why we need national political parties at all.

Perhaps this poll goes overboard, but it is consistent with others in showing the rapid fall in support for the big 3 parties.

This message is shining through; people no longer trust the big 3 parties to deliver.

Our big 3 parties are becoming ever isolated from the people, and no amount of rebranding as 'change' can hide the fact that the people are rejecting the dinosaur idea of just 3 national parties at a time when those big 3 seek to protect and isolate themselves from the people even further with a self-serving state funding plan.

It will backfire. The people are demanding choice.