Blair to stay as PM but resign as Labour leader?

TB-GB stories 'grace' the political pages most days but the tension between the two architects of New Labour now appears to be reaching fever pitch.

Derek Draper, former spindoctor to Peter Mandelson (but now estranged), writes in this morning's Mail on Sunday about an audacious plan by Tony Blair to resign as Labour leader at this year's October conference but stay on as PM for another couple of years.  The plan - which Draper thinks the Labour ruling body should declare "unacceptable" - is apparently the brainchild of Mandelson, Milburn and Blair.

The increasingly desperate Blairite faction is still anxiously scrabbling around for a way to stop Brown from becoming PM.  Under their 'bunker plan' Alan Milburn will contest Gordon Brown for the Labour crown - a story that is also taken seriously in the Sunday Mirror.   Alan Milburn, Draper writes, won't be a stalking horse candidate - but an "attack dog".  His intention would not be to win the Labour leadership but "to fatally wound the Chancellor".  Then, continues Draper:

"Then, with all in chaos, Young Turk David Miliband will come up through the middle as the 'fresh face' needed to heal the party's wounds."

It all sounds pretty unlikely but even if it's completely untrue it reveals some of the poison that now clogs the arteries of the Labour beast.  Voters hate party disunity and the real beneficiaries will be Cameron and Campbell on 4th May.  Relations at the top of Labour deteriorated during the last week when Blairites Byers and Milburn challenged Brown's approach to pensions.   Brown has, The Observer reports, been dropped from Labour's local election launch - apparently after Number Ten's fury at Brown's withdrawal of the £200 council tax discount for pensioners.  Downing Street thinks the withdrawal was designed by Brown to worsen Labour's local election results next month and hasten Blair's departure.  Brownites, meanwhile, have apparently stopped co-operating with Blair's inner circle over the Chancellor's transition plans: "The Chancellor's allies now claim they cannot even trust top civil servants with Brown's plans for future policies because they are "leaked to Number Ten" and then adopted by Blair" (Sunday Mirror).

Meanwhile, in the News of the World, a poll which is headlined as 'it's time for Blair to leave', actually  finds that the name number of voters - 30% each - identify Brown or Blair as the better PM (almost exactly the same percentages as identified by YouGov for Friday's Telegraph).

Comments

[Yet Another Anon]

David Milliband is not a serious contender for the leadership of the Labour Party, nor is Alan Milburn who only returns to the forefront at the urging of Tony Blair and has shown himself reluctant to put himself forward on the grounds that he feels it weakens his family time.

I imagine when the vote on who should be leader eventually comes that probably Frank Field will stand against Gordon Brown and probably get very few votes comparitively.

I imagine Tony Blair will stand down as leader after the 2008 Local Elections (probably announce it before) but then carry on until the end of 2008 or turn of 2009 which will both beat the length of time that Margaret Thatcher was PM and leave his successor starting off dealing with a new President (Probably John McCain) and Vice-President in the USA as Dubya cannot stand again under the law and the election is in October 2008 and the inauguration in January 2009.

There have been times in the past where the Party Leader was different from the Prime Minister if you go back into the 19th century and early 20th century - in the situation in which the party has a majority it is probably unsustainable for more than a matter of months for either of the 2 main parties certainly in the Labour Party so if Tony Blair stands down as leader at this years party conference saying he will stand down as Prime Minister in 2 years time then I think the pressure will just build and build and he'd be forced out by the New Year with Gordon Brown taking over, if he planned to go as party leader at the Conference this year realistically he would have to say he was standing down as Prime Minister by the Summer.

[Ben]

I’d agree that the details of the story are probably untrue but I would also agree that the story does suggest the depth to which relations between Blair and Brown have sunk.

Blair’s authority within his government and within the PLP seems to be almost on the verge of collapse. However, at the same time a combination of attacks by Cameron/ Osborne and Blair loyalist is seeing Brown’s credibility under sustained pressure.

The result of this is that it seems increasingly likely that the leadership election that follows Blair’s departure could get ugly.

It seems clear that Milburn, Reid, Byers et-al see their chief as being undermined by the Chancellor and his allies and feel aggrieved by this. This means that Milburn (or perhaps Reid) would contemplate challenging Brown in an effort both to defend the Blairite legacy and on a more basic level out of a desire for revenge against the chancellor.

But I would dispute the idea that this would promote the chances of Miliband as a “unity candidate” between the warring Blair/Brown factions, Instead a more established figure would be more likely to emerge IMHO.

Such a candidate would come from the cabinet (Miliband isn’t) and boast good relations with both camps (Miliband does not) while also standing a good chance of commanding the loyalty of the majority of the parliamentary party (Miliband is too much of nonentity at the moment to do that) as well as the support of the broader party in the country (Miliband doesn’t have that kind of profile).

That candidate, at least in my estimation would be either Hillary Benn or Alan Johnson, both are well respected and accomplished members of the cabinet, both command widespread respect and neither would be tainted with the bloody letting that seems to be imminent between the Blair/Brown factions.

What is more of those two I would argue that Benn would be the more likely to emerge as a leader and, more to the point, the more credible candidate to oppose and beat Brown.

Anon

To be fair the media mention Miliband simply because he is a name they know it is the same with Reid and Clark (neither of whom would be stomached by the Labour Party faithful).

As I have argued, a unity candidate would emerge from the cabinet and it would be most likely to be either Benn or Johnson, not Clark or Reid (too closely allied to Blair) nor Miliband (too inexperienced).

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>To be fair the media mention Miliband simply because he is a name they know it is the same with Reid and Clark (neither of whom would be stomached by the Labour Party faithful).<<<<
David Milliband is one of Tony Blair's creatures, I don't think he's any better known inside the Labour Party than outside - I'm sure that if his name was brought up frequently people would say David Who? He'd probably get called Millipede as well.

As for John Reid or Charles Clarke I think they probably are more popular inside the Labour Party than outside but that they are probably realistic in realising that they perhaps don't come over particularily well in the media.

I'm not sure how popular Alan Milburn is inside the Labour Party, I think Frank Field actually would be a much more popular contender but I think a combination of looking for someone authoratative to take over and what will be seen as a duty the party has to John Smith that Gordon Brown will sale through.

John Prescott has said before that it would be his last function as Deputy Leader to see through the Leadership race before standing down, so a race for the Deputy Leadership should start soon after and that could be very bitter with people seeking either to establish themselves as probably one of the most powerful people in the government after Gordon Brown and some seeing it as a stepping stone to a leadership election when Gordon Brown finishes as leader probably in 2018 or so - at which point the same speculation may well be focused on Gordon Brown as it is now on Tony Blair. I imagine Patricia Hewitt, Geoff Hoon, Peter Hain, maybe Ed Balls, David Blunkett perhaps, maybe Alastair Darling, Diane Abbott, Claire Short could all be after that job.

[Elena]

Milliband won't get it. They rave about him but he doesn't come across well on telly at all. Neither does his brother. Both end up sounding about as sanctimonious as Patricia Hewitt, which must have taken some doing.

[a]

Anyone who thinks Derek Draper knows about the inner workings of the Labour Party needs their head examined. The story is utter rubbish printed in a paper that would print anything and everything it thinks will damage Labour and won't end up in the libel courts.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

"That candidate, at least in my estimation would be either Hillary Benn or Alan Johnson, both are well respected and accomplished members of the cabinet, both command widespread respect and neither would be tainted with the bloody letting that seems to be imminent between the Blair/Brown factions."

These are the two men I would least like to see as Labour leader due to the fact that, despite being fully paid-up members of that rabble, they both strike me as decent, likeable chaps who would play well with the voters, unlike the generally obnoxious Blairites typified by Byers, Milburn and Miliband or the wall-eyed Brownites.

The thought of the run-of-the-Milburn is quite amusing though.

[Ben]

Daniel

I'd agree in the end both Johnson and Benn would be stronger leaders than either Brown or Miliband IMHO... however i would fully expect most Labour Party members not to realise that and to dutyfully vote for Brown in the next leadership election.

[Voice from the South West]

I've said this before but I cannot see Blair outlasting Thatcher. Ben probably knows more about the mood of the Labour Party than I could ever do, but I can't see Labour allowing Blair to carry on for another two or three years - if he's as weak as everybody's claiming he is, imagine what it would be like in a couple of years time when the government will almost certainly be more unpopular than it is now.

[Editor]

I think Ben is right about Benn. I think he is incredibly impressive. I also admire the way he gave up the chance for 'promotion' in order to stay at international development. Tories underestimate the job's political and inherent importance.

[Gary Barford]

For clarification Miliband is in the Cabinet; he is only a Minister of State, not a Secretary of State, but it is a cabinet-level position.

[Voice from the South West]

Editor - I suspect Benn knew exactly what he was doing in turning down any "promotions" to Education or Work & Pensions. Far better to remain in International Development rather than allowing his reputation to get soiled by the mess those two departments could have got him into.

[Account Deleted]

I think Benn is the best person on the Labour frontbenches, and think if he had a serious chance of getting in, we should be worried. Though thank God they would never have the sense to pick him.

I have met various people who have met him who say he is hard working, decent and pragmatic, though obviously a social democrat in temperament. I don't think he turned down promotion because he is too politically astute (or at least, not just because of this), but because he wants to make DfID better before he leaves, not just portfolio hop to the top.

He combines the best features of his father (being a decent person) without the worst features (being a bit of a headbanger...)

[Ben]

"Ben probably knows more about the mood of the Labour Party than I could ever do"

I don't know, I quit the party months ago; not an easy decision but I’m only twenty and you have to do what you thinks “right”.

Oddly, while the vast majority of defections from Labour are from the dissatisfied left, I find myself part of a trickle of folks of a centrist or centre right bent who’ve left.

There really is very little room for a person who is pro-life, pro-Iraq War, pro-reform and distrustful of the authoritarian, big state leanings of this government, within the Labour Party membership.

As I say it wasn’t easy, the troubling thing is I have many friends who are involved in conservative future trying to get me to join, and to be honest I do tend to agree with them a great deal :) .

But I’ll stick by my point on Benn, if a “unity” candidate where to emerge to challenge for the leadership in an atmosphere where a wounded Brown was heading for victory in a negative contests with an aggressive Blairite candidate then that candidate would be someone like Benn, or maybe Johnson.

[Voice from the South West]

"As I say it wasn’t easy, the troubling thing is I have many friends who are involved in conservative future trying to get me to join, and to be honest I do tend to agree with them a great deal :)"

Go on Ben, give in to your feelings, you know you want to ;-)

As I'm not a member of the Labour Party, and don't intend to become one, my general point was that, whether you’re an ex-member or not, is that you would probably be able to judge the mood of ordinary activists better than what I could in their attitude towards Blair et al.

[Annabel Herriott]

I agree with Yet another Anon. TB goes end of 2007/early part of 2008. Gordon gets a blast at being PM. Hung-ish parliament 2009/10 - ish. Falls flat on his face, and we win with DC in the next one 2013/14 ish. There will be so may chickens coming home to roost 2009/10, we dont want to be the ones left to pick up the eggs. Let NuLab pick up their own rotten eggs, then we can start with a clean sheet.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>I think Ben is right about Benn. I think he is incredibly impressive. I also admire the way he gave up the chance for 'promotion' in order to stay at international development. Tories underestimate the job's political and inherent importance.<<<<
Hilary Benn though would be too associated with his father, if he were to be made Labour leader then Labour support would collapse, the very name Benn conjures up images of Red Wedge and attempts to push the Labour Party onto ever more radically Socialist Party - Labour would be lucky to win 30% of the vote at the next General Election under such circumstances.

[Yet Another Anon]

I actually think that Gordon Brown probably will get his 10 years as Prime Minister and Ed Balls will take them through another election but that in 2024 or so Labour will lose all momentum and a more socially Conservative what would have been referred as a more right wing position campaigning for strong defence and pre-emptive strikes, there will be a strengthening desire for stronger Anti-Terrorist action at home and abroad, demands for Tax Cuts and Spending Cuts, restriction of social spending, restoration of Capital Punishment as party policy on a 3 line whip, if the EU has not gone along similar lines then withdrawal from the EU and a rejection of the permissive society that will unite Conservative Catholics, Conservative Evangelicals, Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs as there will probably be a re-emergence of religion based on fundamentals and possibly Conservatives could be in coalition with the DUP and UKIP.

The Labour Party will collapse in internal warfare between Trotskyites, Fabians and Social Democrats and there will be decades of Conservative rule - comparable perhaps to the situation in Japan where the governing party has been continuosly in government for 56 years.