During today we'll be publishing the latest results of the ConservativeHome Members' Panel:
- Being unveiled now are the monthly tracking numbers.
- At noon we will publish the ratings of the top ten members of the shadow cabinet.
- At 3pm we will post the Panel's answers to questions about the war on terror.
Tomorrow we'll compare the results of Tory supporters with those of Tory members.
From Monday 20th March the interesting answers given to the "what you think would be the best Conservative Party strategy against Gordon Brown?" open question will form the heart of a week dedicated to thinking about 'Defeating Gordon Brown'.
1,316 Tory Members took part in the February survey compared to 1,351 in January.
SATISFACTION/ DISSATISFACTION WITH DAVID CAMERON
ConservativeHome.com's latest survey of Tory members shows that support for David Cameron remains broad but not quite as deep. The total satisfied number is barely changed at 81% (compared to 82% in January) but the number "very satisfied" (coloured dark blue in the graphic above) has shrunk from 45% to 33%.
The number dissatisfied has increased very marginally - from 16% to 18%. The dark red colour indicates "very dissatisfied" - the light red number represents the "fairly dissatisfied".
LIKELIHOOD OF DAVID CAMERON BECOMING PRIME MINISTER AT NEXT ELECTION
Compared to the January survey there has been a 10% decline in the number of members expecting Mr Cameron to be Prime Minister after the next General Election. 77% thought it "very likely" (dark green) or "fairly likely" (light green) that Mr Cameron would be PM in the January survey. That number is down to 67% in the February survey.
More details of these numbers and questions on party modernisation and right track/ wrong track can be read in this PDF.
NEXT FINDING: Hague is favourite shadow cabinet member (and getting more so)
Thanks to Tony Blair being in power since 1997 we have a country in crisis,in fact pushed to the edge of the abyss. We have been pushed into an illegal war, Hospitals are laying off staff or closing our police forces have lost the plot, I won't even bother with schools and Blair's Acadamies!
The last thing this country needs is New Labour MkII.
Honesty and openness has been sadly lacking not only from Tony Blair but most of his Ministers.
If people can't differenciate between New Labour and you they won't even bother to go out and vote and then we will have New Labour for yet another term. Unless of course Gordon Brown's monetary policies blow up in his face before the next General Election and we have a major recession.
Identity Cards, the government are spending billions on something that is next to useless as far as terrorism is concerned, why aren't we told the truth as to why their is such an emergency to get this bill pushed through?
Until the public can trust politicians once more I see no hope for this country?
Barry Reed
Posted by: Barry Reed | March 09, 2006 at 09:58
Hopefully Mr. Cameron takes heed of our views and of this website! It is high time he realised that this Blair-like spin and show is nothing if it cannot be backed up by views and ideas, Mr. Cameron has, as yet, displayed none! Much like Blair, he is retreating from the education white paper and has scrapped every policy we have had.
Cameron was meant to save the Tories, at this rate, we'll probably be flung further into the abyss. I hope we get drastic changes soon...
Posted by: Pratik Parekh | March 09, 2006 at 10:05
"77% thought it "very likely" (dark green) or "fairly likely" (light green) that Mr Cameron would be PM in the January survey. That number is down to 67% in the February survey."
That still seems a tad optimistic given that such an outcome would depend on securing an outright majority or forming a coalition with one or more other parties.
Posted by: Daniel Vince-Archer | March 09, 2006 at 10:06
I think that we are getting the post honeymoon realism setting in - January we were reeling from the unexpected pleasure of level pegging or leading in the polls.
This is even more so in the likelihood of PM figures. I think many members underestimated the scale of the task facing this party if it expects to win the next election and more are realising that a hung/minority outcome is a strong possibility at next election.
Cameron has to stick to the broad strategy he has set - we can't keep having leaders who start the leadership with one set of objectives then reverse back to the 1990's messages.
Posted by: Ted | March 09, 2006 at 10:11
I'd like to make something clear about the polls - we are doing far better than people realise. Many pollsters have suffered in recent years from over-stating Labour and there is no reason to believe this is not still happening. Polls such as YouGov and ICM which have been more accurate than the rest give Cameron a clear lead, and the latest Cameron v Brown poll had Cameron six points ahead. We really shouldn't give any credence to pollsters such as Mori whose methodology and track-record leave much to be desired.
Posted by: Julian H | March 09, 2006 at 10:34
I think that perhaps many people are becoming impatient with the lack of clear policy announcements emanating from Central Office. Obviously we don't expect a manifesto years before an election but at least some indication of what the Tories would like to do would be nice. No more nebulous comments about "protecting the environment". Who doesn't?!
Posted by: Richard | March 09, 2006 at 10:55
"Cameron has to stick to the broad strategy he has set - we can't keep having leaders who start the leadership with one set of objectives then reverse back to the 1990's messages."
Well some would say (not me, I hasten to add) that Cameron's brand of 'reheated Majorism' is skipping the first part and reverting straight back to the 1990s messages.
"The latest Cameron v Brown poll had Cameron six points ahead. We really shouldn't give any credence to pollsters such as Mori whose methodology and track-record leave much to be desired."
You've contradicted yourself there. The six-point lead was in a BPIX poll, which is an even more shadowy pollster than Ipsos-MORI according to Smithson.
I do agree with you that YouGov is probably a better indicator, but their results do not show the Conservatives having the sort of lead required to start banging on the door of Number 10.
Posted by: Daniel Vince-Archer | March 09, 2006 at 11:11
DC isn't after your votes. He's after the votes of all the people in the centre who still don't trust us and who have consistently voted Labour since 97. A pretty good definition of insanity is to repeat the same behavior and expect a different result.
Posted by: Opus Dave Member | March 09, 2006 at 11:13
DVA - "You've contradicted yourself there. The six-point lead was in a BPIX poll, which is an even more shadowy pollster than Ipsos-MORI according to Smithson."
Nope - it was Populus, the BPIX one had the parties neck-and-neck under Brown. Hypothetical polls with Brown as leader are here.
Posted by: Anthony | March 09, 2006 at 11:33
There has been a noticeable reduction in the bias of BBC TV political reporting. Most days this week BBC News has reported government failures and in most cases they’ve given a nod to Conservatives. We are becoming more mainstream, and I attribute that to the change of emphasis under David Cameron’s leadership.
Posted by: Mark Fulford | March 09, 2006 at 11:34
"You've contradicted yourself there."
Guilty as charged; I didn't think anyone would be perceptive enough to notice.
"but their results do not show the Conservatives having the sort of lead required to start banging on the door of Number 10."
No, but why should they after just three months? Give the man time, it's all building nicely.
Richard - you may have noticed Cameron setting up a variety of innovative committees aimed at analysing and formulating all kinds of new policy. They will report over the next two years.
Posted by: Julian H | March 09, 2006 at 11:35
"Richard - you may have noticed Cameron setting up a variety of innovative committees aimed at analysing and formulating all kinds of new policy. They will report over the next two years."
Indeed I have. But whereas they are examining policies in depth it would be nice if the leadership would give some broad indications as to how it intends to achieve its objectives. For example, it is clear that Cameron and co support greater independence for schools.
Posted by: Richard | March 09, 2006 at 11:38
The eighteen month policy reviews are in danger of becoming a real achilles heel. People need to see David Cameron's leadership skills. They need to see a leader who is willing to take tough choices on issues like pensions and nuclear power. It is difficult for him to do so when all of the big decisions have been subcontracted to Lilley, Gummer, IDS and the other policy group chieftans...
Posted by: Editor | March 09, 2006 at 11:43
i agree that 18 months does seem a long time for the policy reviews, maybe 12 months would have been better. but the party needs to be seen to be really thinking through the issues and coming uip with weel-thought out, well costed, detailed policies to the long term problems of the country. this means it takes time. its no good trying to put together a series of "gimmick" policies in a few months before an election. they take time to formulate and therefore we should let cameron and his groups get on with it. i dont think it will be his achilles heel, i think its his greatest asset - showing the public we really are gonna come up with good policies.
Posted by: spagbob | March 09, 2006 at 11:48
What a brilliant way of presenting the results.
Posted by: Peter Franklin | March 09, 2006 at 11:55
At the launch of each policy group David Cameron did give indications on the direction they’d be heading. For example, in the Social Justice launch he talked about the necessity for politicians to relinquish control and empower the independent sector with hands-off funding. It would be wrong for David Cameron to provide any further pre-emption and I'm satisfied that committees of sensible Conservatives will arrive at sensible Conservative answers.
True, there’ll be situations where Conservatives have to vote on contentious issues before the 18 months are up, but they’re relatively rare and there are ways around it.
Posted by: Mark Fulford | March 09, 2006 at 11:58
Isnt it damned if you do damned if you dont. If you come up with polices that in effect are going to make up your manifesto years before an election - what happens - your opponents steal any good ideas. If you wait - then you are criticised for not being bold enough. Im not sure what the answer is. When is the right time to come up with clear policies?
Posted by: Jonathan Sheppard | March 09, 2006 at 12:01
Are you going to be publishing the results of the other questions asked in the survey Editor?
Posted by: malcolm | March 09, 2006 at 12:02
...and if they don't steal them they have lots of time to respond/trash them/lie about them.
Posted by: Ted | March 09, 2006 at 12:05
"DC isn't after your votes. "
Well, if he doesn't get them, he'll be in trouble.
Posted by: Sean Fear | March 09, 2006 at 12:05
maybe 18 months is a good time period after all then!
Posted by: spagbob | March 09, 2006 at 12:12
"Nope - it was Populus, the BPIX one had the parties neck-and-neck under Brown. Hypothetical polls with Brown as leader are here."
I stand corrected!
"There has been a noticeable reduction in the bias of BBC TV political reporting. Most days this week BBC News has reported government failures and in most cases they’ve given a nod to Conservatives. We are becoming more mainstream, and I attribute that to the change of emphasis under David Cameron’s leadership."
Really? The most prominent criticism of the government over the past week (Jowell aside) was regarding the failure to take action against the Moslem protesters who were advocating terrorism. The Conservatives were largely ignored in BBC coverage, and where the Conservatives were mentioned, it had nothing to do with David Cameron.
"No, but why should they after just three months? Give the man time, it's all building nicely."
I'm not saying they should. I just feel that the number of respondents expecting David Cameron to be Prime Minister after the next General Election is a bit high given that indicators suggest the Conservatives do not have the level of support required yet.
Posted by: Daniel Vince-Archer | March 09, 2006 at 12:12
Malcolm: "Are you going to be publishing the results of the other questions asked in the survey Editor?"
Yes, Malcolm. As I said at the beginning of the post!
Posted by: Editor | March 09, 2006 at 12:22
Sorry Editor!Will pay more attention in future!
Posted by: malcolm | March 09, 2006 at 12:44
I think Davis Cameron as been excellent in the short time he as been leader.
He as put into place the machinary to examine the party`s policies and is slowly working to give the party a new image.
As long as he gets loyalty and syupport and everyone works hard in backing him the party can look forward with realistic optimism of victory at the next election.
I am afraid people like Pratik would see dark clouds even when there wasn`t a cloud in the sky!
Posted by: Jack Stone | March 09, 2006 at 14:06
Hurrah! My favourite David Cameron spokesman is back! Oh Jack, why 'as' it been so long since your last post?
"I think Davis Cameron as been excellent in the short time he as been leader."
Davis Cameron? Is that the product of the civil partnership that was a constant joke during the leadership hustings? I don't think it's fair to call Cameron an 'as-been' either...
"He as put into place the machinary to examine the party`s policies and is slowly working to give the party a new image."
Slowly being the operative word.
"As long as he gets loyalty and syupport and everyone works hard in backing him the party can look forward with realistic optimism of victory at the next election."
It's going to take more than that Jack. Showing that we have the ideas and policies to address the nation's problems will be the main factor in deciding whether we can look forward to victory, not rebranding and slavish loyalty.
"I am afraid people like Pratik would see dark clouds even when there wasn`t a cloud in the sky!"
Still, that's not a problem as the sun shines out of David Cameron's backside doesn't it Jack?
Posted by: Daniel Vince-Archer | March 09, 2006 at 14:58
I think the comment about the Cameron strategy being aimed at swing voters not us Conservative anoraks is spot on. We cannot possibly win an election unless we reach out and identify with that centre ground. If we go back to the shrill messages we had before we will lose yet again. David Cameron needs to stick to his strategy. What I would say is that it is not so much detail on policies that we need but a short and very clear staement of what we stand for. The Built to Last paper is quite good but far too long and vague. We want a one liner really and that should be built into everything and demonstrated in every press release etc.
Matt
Posted by: matt wright | March 11, 2006 at 22:16
The average british person is both honest and law abiding. One day we will vote for a hopefully Conservative goverment that can preach they are all average British people!
Posted by: Trevor Way | March 30, 2006 at 17:14
What I want from my government.
1. I want to be able to live my life without fear, oppression, discrimination.
2. I want to expect protection from hooligans, criminals and undesirables.
3. I want a government that will instil a culture of respect and unselfishness in the general population.
4. I want a government that will insist on higher moral standards.
5. I want a government that will listen to the general will of the people.
6. Not to have my government jeopardise my safety or the environment I live in.
7. I want a government that practises truth and honesty.
8. I want a government that respects the rights of citizens and instructs the population to respect other people, the environment they live in, public and private property and the rights of others to have freedom of choice.
9. I would like to see an end to minority groups of all persuasions having disproportionate influence over the silent majority. I would like to have a government that promotes morality and the Christian ethic.
10. I want a government that governs for the whole of the country and not just the towns and cities.
11. I want a government that recognises that rural communities have a legitimate right to their way of life, in all aspects, and that the countryside is not a theme park for urban dwellers to exploit at weekends, or worse, open space to build on.
12. I want a government that lets me choose how I spend my hard-earned money and not the state decide through taxes.
13. I want this country to be governed by our government and not Brussels.
14. I want less political correctness.
14. I want to be dictated to less by do-gooders, health & safety freaks and other busy bodies.
15. I want my government to interfere less in the affairs of other nations unless specifically requested by the UN.
16. I want more efficient government with far fewer employees.
17. A parliament that represents the constituencies it passes laws on and a stop to Scottish and Welsh MPs voting on English affairs.
18. I want the Regional Assemblies abolished.
Will a DC government deliver any of these?
Posted by: Peter Brown | March 30, 2006 at 17:59
The State is far too big,too intrusive and everything it meddles with always requires more money and more resources too make it less worse.
We Tories should be opposing the growth of the State not supporting it. We do not now live in a democracy, but an elected dictatorship which ignores the wishes of the electorate,concentrating instead on working with special interest groups. These groups weren't elected but they do have deeeeep pockets!
Thus the relationship between the Government and the Electorate is skewed and distorted. Apathy sets in because successive governments follow their own agenda instead of offering vision and leadership. But its okay because by the time the results of these policies are manifest the offending politicians have moved on-taking their pensions with them!
If David Cameron continues the way he is going we might as well save ourselves a lot of bother and keep Tony!
The Welfare State is busy destroying the innocence and security of our children by brainwashing them with their rights to abortions and birth control.
Posted by: John Winlow | March 30, 2006 at 18:24
Wow! 82% are satisifed with Cameron in February. It would be really interesting to know what's in the minds of those who are satisfied. What has the useless leftie said or done that would make anyone want to vote Tory? He isn't going to reduce the tax burden; he's going to let developers build all over the South of England; and he supported the government on its pathetic education bill. So how does any of that differentiate the Tories from the Socialists? One day soon, I hope Cameron gets the push. Then I might re-join the party.
Posted by: Paul, Southampton | March 30, 2006 at 19:12
I am bitterly disappointed in Cameron. He is proving a real "wet" and refuses to grasp nettles. He keeps throwing lifelines to a discredited prime minister and is betraying opinions and attitudes that have stood the party in good stead.
As more and more become dependents of Brown's welfare state it is vital to break the link - or we will never win.
Education is a shambles and being deliberately sabotaged supported by Cameron
Nuclear power is unpopular but inescapable if we are not to die of hypothermia {!} while industry - what's left of it - closes. Cameron puts a 3-bulb generator on his roof. Ye Gods!
The NHS is a disaster area - silence from Cameron.
Pensions MUST go to 65 earliest. Silence from Cameron.
ETC-- - - - - -ETC
Posted by: christina speight | March 30, 2006 at 19:45
Things have changed with this month. I expect Cameron to fall a fair bit this month. The Education Bill and ID Cards along with the loans/donations mess, which Cameron is not killing. Its been a bad month for Cameron.
Posted by: James Maskell | March 30, 2006 at 20:18
I have responded to the last two surveys with a call to go for the voters who want to leave the EU. Although I find that many members of the CP agree with me and that many of the people I canvass do too, my comments somehow don't get published in your listing of comments. I wonder why. Or are you as guilty of spin as politicians generally? Or are you just suppressing views with which you disagree? Unless there is a complete and honest debate you are wasting every one's time.
Posted by: Peter Kirby | March 30, 2006 at 21:20
One way the conservatives can gain support in England is to offer England it's own parliament and end the unfair Barnet formula.
Posted by: revinkevin | March 30, 2006 at 22:01
I agree with Peter Brown's 10 points! DC seems wet and a weak image of Tony Blair. If this is just a cover to regain the middle ground that has voted New labour in 3 elections, I can understand the strategy but it seems somehow immoral and dishonest to present ones self as different from the reality. We've had enough spin,smoke and mirrors, most people want the truth.
Posted by: Myrtle Boal / N. Ireland | March 30, 2006 at 22:11
"As more and more become dependents of Brown's welfare state it is vital to break the link - or we will never win".
Precisely, Watson, precisely. Mr Brown has been buying votes and his master probably hoping that he can import some with the help of the EU; as we know, Watson, turkeys don't vote for Christmas and there are now lots of turkeys around. So, Watson, what do you detect to be the answer to the conundrum: how do the Tories win? Is to be the chicken, or rather, the turkey or the egg. What will help the Tories win the next election under Cameron, Watson?
Bird flu, Holmes, bird flu!
Precisely, Holmes, precisely! Cameron will need bird flu in the form of a collapsed economy to win. He will need a wing and a prayer.
Posted by: Dontmakemelaugh | March 30, 2006 at 22:12
Oh dear ,David Cameron needs a few tips from Alan Sugar on how not to be a light weight. Speak up David , we are not hearing you, You and your team know what needs to be said, well, say it, LOUDLY.
Long live Britannia and the rest.
Posted by: maggie snook | March 30, 2006 at 22:38
I agree with Peter Brown's wishlist for a DC Govt.
I want a Government that is tough on criminals, yobs and terrorists without reducing the freedom of the law-abiding (as ID cards would do)
It is good that DC is modernising by showing concern for the environment and for the family and society, not just financial gain. But:
1) I note support for DC is softening slightly. Would this be since his rejecting grammar schools? I speak as someone who did not pass the 11+ and went to a Secondary Mod, but I do understand that grammar schools aid social mobility by offering more able children from less well-off backgrounds a better chance.
2) DC's change on house-building is disappointing. Building all these extra houses will surely never reduce house prices anywhere near enough to make a family house in the SE (or many other areas) affordable for young families on average or low incomes. We need to be honest and ask why we need all these extra houses when the birth rate has been falling.
3) Concern for the environment is good but means more than DC putting a windmill on his house and washing his dishes in recycled bathwater. The impact of transport needs to be addressed. Will he support the electrification and development of the railways to provide an environmentally better choice?
Posted by: Philip | March 30, 2006 at 23:36
We should continue to support David Cameron and all the good work he is doing, he has to also continue to move the party forward whilst not forgetting what the party has brought to this country over the years.
I am not sure that supporting the Labour Education Bill was a good. With the Labour Government we are in a state of complete change with Police, Fire, Health, Local Government, Education etc. all facing complete changes, the cost to the tax payer will be millions of pounds for what.
The only thing this government wants is to distroy the Shire Counties, the heartland of the conservative party.
I would like David Cameron to insist that all conservative members of parliament are made to support their constituuency, some do not in fact work against their constituency.
Posted by: Neville Price | March 31, 2006 at 09:11
It is important to for David and his spokesmen to criticise the Labour party by name rather than Blair himself as he probably will not be there at the next election. We need to word our sentences as "The labour party has caused the crisis in the NHS" or "Brown and Blairs'e divisivenous have caused chaos in the Dept of Work and Pensions."
More power to you elbow. Regards Chris, Carshalton and Wallington
Posted by: chris Wortley | March 31, 2006 at 09:54
I have been a supporter of David Cameron from the beginning. I agree he cannot show his hand too quickly, otherwise the Government will copy or scupper it.
BUT WE DO NEED STRONG LEADERSHIP and this Government is still getting away with MURDER, and wasting our money without any outcry from our Party.
David Cameron must realise that his first DUTY is to get rid of Tony Blair and his CORRUPT Cronies, so that we have a chance to make this Country a place we want to live in.
Posted by: Roy Seeman | March 31, 2006 at 10:22
This government has spent enormous sums of money in the key areas of health and education and is failing miserably in both. Our shadow ministers should be attacking the goverment daily on this failure - boring to do, yes, but necessary. The constant drip, drip effect will wear them down and eventually become embedded in the national psyche. It will also - importantly - demonstrate that this party has strength in depth not just David Cameron. David is doing well but he will not win power on his own.
Posted by: Patrick | March 31, 2006 at 11:11
An excellent comment, Roy. I have just completed the current survey and against most of the Shadow cabinet I had to put "don't know"! They have GOT to get out there and make fierce, but responsible, attacks on this government's failures. At the moment the media (generally to be treated with contempt, but not in this area) is the only realy opposition.
The drip, drip effect works deeply on the voters' psyche. Think back to that awful tag wrongly hung around our necks - "the Tories don't care". We are still trying to dispel that one and I think that this is partly responsible for the tack that DC is having to take in getting back our mass popularity
Posted by: Stephen Hillier | March 31, 2006 at 14:56
Can you please include a question in the survey along the lines of 'Do you support a reduction in the number of MP's representing non-English constituencies in the Westminster parliament.' We have to get this question to the top of the agenda and included in the manifesto. It would solve the labour majority problem at a stroke.
Posted by: roger | March 31, 2006 at 16:57
Too slow in replying to Labour over our millions given on loan,we have lost the middle ground again.
Funding in education,Primary schools get£1,000 less per pupil in the North West compared to the South East--should be equal.
Posted by: pamela dixon | March 31, 2006 at 23:09
Too slow in replying to Labour over our millions given on loan,we have lost the middle ground again.
Funding in education,Primary schools get£1,000 less per pupil in the North West compared to the South East--should be equal.
Posted by: pamela dixon | March 31, 2006 at 23:10
The conservative top boys & MPs are still not taking note of what the people of this country are saying the over 60,s, the voters and their pensions.
the MPs get £12,000 per year after only 8 years in office, which is telling the voters that they are still looking after themselfs.
And still they tell us to work longer & pay more in to our Pension fund.
The labour party will still be in power after the next Gen. Election.
why do i have to be on line in order to make these comments
Posted by: neville p judd | April 01, 2006 at 06:33
Trevor Way echoes my thoughts completely and those of most of my friends.As elderly people we are more than cross, we are sad to see our country the way it going...not least the way we are being swamped by people who make no contribution financially, but are draining resources so much our elderly are suffering after years of contribution financially and in the defence of our great nation.
Posted by: helen nash (mrs) | April 01, 2006 at 13:14
England needs to have control of her own affairs. It is unfair and very dangerous to allow the anomoly between the Countries of Britain to remain. England needs a parliament and this must be addressed. The Conservative party needs to become an English party. There is and will never be conservative support in Scot/Wales/NI.
Posted by: Fred Bishop | April 02, 2006 at 09:16
>>>>There is and will never be conservative support in Scot/Wales/NI<<<<
Rural Scotland and Ulster used to be the most strongly Conservative part of the UK, fanatically Unionist and anti-Communist, anti-Socialist, anti-Anarchist and anti-Liberal and pro the Crown, after 1959 the Conservatives slipped a lot in Scotland and because of Edward Heath's closing of the Parliament at Stormont and later the Anglo-Irish Agreement the Conservative Party fell out with the Unionists, surely if the Conservative Party was to ally itself with the DUP on the status of Ulster and rejection of all formal power sharing agreements and all involvement of the Irish Republic in Ulster affairs then as well as being right to support those fighting to keep Ulster free it would also add 9-13 seats onto the Conservative Parliamentary strength which when forming a government could be vital.
Certainly Wales is the one part of the country where to my knowledge there has never been a Conservative majority, it was mainly Liberal before Labour dominated it although for the first time ever it actually has more Conservative representation than Scotland does, things change though and just as Scotland's political scene has changed radically so Wales's political scene could go away from Labour if not to the Conservative Party itself then maybe to UKIP and surely in future the Conservative Party would look to any UKIP MP's as well as to the Unionists to form a Coalition in the event of being just short of an overall majority.
Posted by: Yet Another Anon | April 02, 2006 at 09:35
The Conservatives had a very good run in Wales in 1979, 1983 and 1987.
Back in 1983, we had 14 MPs in Wales, our best tally ever (if you exclude the National Government of 1931). Were we to win an election, one would expect 6-10 MPs in Wales.
Posted by: Sean Fear | April 02, 2006 at 10:19
I cannot really remember a worse time for the current government but we will not win by their actions and need to present the party as one with new ideas and solutions. It is not the case of listing their problems but of presenting workable and realistic solutions
Are we actually achieving this position ?
Posted by: Dr Howard Bloom | April 02, 2006 at 15:44
The poll is showing a small but significant change in mood of members and supporters toward DC. Word on the doorsteps in the run up to the locals is similar. The mood swing will intensify.
So 'The honeymoon period is over'.
We believers in Conservatism and Britain can't affort honeymoon periods. Sadly it has taken some of the membership 3 months to catch on that DC was never going to offer any hope for the millions of disollusioned Britons who still dont know who to turn to for the answer.
Centrist PC populist politics is the curse that will destroy this nation. DC wishes to build on the Blair/Brown legacy. Surely this is a legacy that should be utterly eradicated?
Whilst all around our society, values, traditions, institutions, economy, heritage, security, infrastructure, laws &c, are crumbling, I hear no strong voice, just the wimper of the Tory front gaurd as they limp around all the major issues, to afraid of their own shadows to tackle anything head on.
Please God.
Posted by: Chris Hossack | April 02, 2006 at 18:15
We will not win the next election by being new New Labour, or even New Tory. We need to return to the core values which I believe are easily understood and respected by most of the electorate
1) small government -- less interference in our everyday lives
2) lower taxes -- more freedom in how we spend our money
3) consumer choice -- in education and health the consumers' needs should come first
3) strong defences -- support and defend a libertarian society with strong borders
4) freedom of speech and expression -- without state intervention
5) freedom from legislation -- only legislate as a last resort
6) reforms to drive public sector productivity -- % of GDP is currently unsustainable and needs to be addressed
7) law and order -- meaningful penalties properly enforced
So, please can we have some real policies that we can rally behind. It is time to contrast ourselves with Labour by pledging to reduce the tax burden, by offering real choice through introduction of school vouchers, by offering real reform of the public sector, by capping council tax increases and reducing the amount of pointless activities local authorities are expected to carry out, by repealing burdensome legislation, by abolishing the complex tax credit systems, by putting money back into the pension funds through abolishion of the tax on dividends, by abolishing inheritance tax.
Posted by: Andrew Clint | April 03, 2006 at 06:56
The Tories have to be more radical....TB got into power on the promise that he would be radical and sort out education, NHS and the welfare state....he has wimped out on all his promises and totally failed the electorate...We need to be revolutionary on all matters...We need to strive for the best education for all.........We need to be honest about the NHS....Can it really be supported in its current state?......We need radical ideas put forward not anodyne proposals....That is what we hoped DC would do....such as no tax for those earning say less than £16,000.....and get rid of all the ridiculous and complex tax legislation introduced by Brown that no one understands....why not go the flat tax route?....why not promise to scrap Stamp duty on principal residences?...why not promise to scrap the £5bn tax raid on private pensions?.....why not talk more about the impact on our council taxes of the "resource reallocation" taking place by Prescott which means that the Southern County Councils have had vast monies removed and redirected to the North to places like Durham.....Hampshire County Council has now had £48m removed then £28mm and now another £14mm.....Hampshire County Council now gets approx £75/person as opposed to Durham who get £235/person.....where is the equity in this?....Why not talk more about all these issues?...these are what really matters to the electorate...
The Tory MPs need to be more vocally critical of the status quo.....Why have the Tories permitted New Labour to tar them with the same brush as theirs in relation to the Loans scandal...The Conservatives did not lie about the existence of their loans.....they did not have fraudulent accounts and a Treasurer who was kept in the dark.....It is not the same story but the media has depicted the Tories as having committed the same crimes.....and got away with it.....
Finally, we need passion and charisma from the Tories and a genuine belief that we can achieve great things for this country and not only stop the ever increasing hand of the State in meddling in our lives but promise to reverse all the Stalinist actions committed by the current Government as well.
Posted by: Onnalee Cubitt | April 04, 2006 at 19:07
I am concerned that there has been too many statements from David Cameron about policy prempting policy units studies have been received. Suggest he keeps his powder dry!
Posted by: timothy royle | April 05, 2006 at 09:29
Off the cuff semi-insults as expressed by DC re UKIP do not really help. Think before speaking!
The current Pension scandal and concern to the electorate, is not apparently a concern for MP's of all parties who continue to award themselves excess pension entitlments and to have a pension plan way beyond the average working man/woman.
A positive sacrifical approach by all Conservative MP's would I believe create credit and confidence amongst the public.
Posted by: N F Townsend | April 05, 2006 at 17:56
Can we see the Party doing more for animal welfare - publicly?
A fair amount goes on behind the scenes, so let's hear more about the Party view on various issues.
We have the Conservative Animal Welfare Group - so please support this. Find us at www.cawg.org.uk
Posted by: Suzy Gale | April 06, 2006 at 12:28
Absolutely, Suzy. I still remember the article in the Mail on Sunday sometime ago about China and its disgracefully weak response to the illegal fur trade. It makes the stomach turn. The CAWG does a great job in promoting animal welfare.
Posted by: James Maskell | April 06, 2006 at 12:42
We criticised New Labour for throwing their integrity out of the window in their desperation for power. They promised the earth to the trade unions to gain their support and welched on every deal that they made. They are, emphatically, not a Labour government and their own members know it.
I do not want my party to lose its integrity by throwing away all our principals in order to gain power at any cost. We are the Conservative Party and we are above all that. Better we lose with our head held high than win with our tail between our legs. We seem, at present, in danger of throwing the baby out with the bath water. New Labour is becoming ever more vulnerable and we need to hit them with everything that we've got.
Sleaze? Ours was a thousand pounds in a brown envelope, theirs appears to be counted in millions.
Posted by: Cllr Terry Justice | April 07, 2006 at 13:33
"Better we lose with our head held high than win with our tail between our legs. We seem, at present, in danger of throwing the baby out with the bath water."
It would also appear that too many cooks spoil the broth and that a stitch in time saves nine. One must never, ever forget though, that all that glistens is not gold.
Posted by: Gareth | April 07, 2006 at 13:44
How can 'Dave' talk about Modernisation and
then appoint such old has-beens as Heseltine,Clarke and,yes, Duncan-Smith to
key roles?
Posted by: Ian Wood | April 12, 2006 at 10:46
It appears that circa 95% of the comments are anti David Cameron (DC)and this is from Conservative inclined voters. Can I suggest that many of the contributors try mixing with people from across the social spectrum, rather than looking at things from their own narrow perspective.
I want to win and quite clearly our strategy since leaving office has not had sufficiently broad appeal. I find it ironic that DC's critics are from within his own party. To date his opponents have failed to land a significant punch. Why, because DC has effectively negated their lines of attack. For example 'Sharing the proceeds of growth' is clever, it doesn't rule out tax cuts but it prevents his opponents making claims that he will cut public services.
Hague, IDS and Howard despite their individual qualities failed to obtain significant media coverage. In this respect DC is brilliant, his trip to Norway was a pubic relations dream. In both presentation and subject matter he is appealing to the voters who will put us in power.
Power is about appealing to all the people, whether they are black or white, gay or straight, Protestant, Catholic, Muslim, Jewish, Hindu.
I am Conservative to the core, but more than anything else I want power. To me DC recognises why we are in opposition and has determined a strategy that has the potential to return us to power. So my message to each and everyone of you, is support DC. My message to David Cameron, is to implement your strategy and unlike your three predecessors, you will be propelled into Number 10.
Posted by: P Hain | April 28, 2006 at 10:54