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I find this astounding!

When i have talked to people in my local area the general feeling is that Brown is less popular than Blair!

It is the same story within my family,they much prefer Blair.

Poll numbers remain disappointing for DC.

I'm not sure how much store to set by this poll. In terms of the numbers, YouGov and ICM tend to have a better track record. That said, the trends it points to are interesting.

Contrary to received wisdom, Gordon Brown remains an asset to Labour (that's why we dropped the "vote Blair, get Brown" line before the last election).

As for this:

"Was David Cameron not the author of the 2005 Conservative manifesto, the most reactionary of modern times?"

Reactionary?!? It accepted a huge amount of the status quo, and can therefore hardly be described in those terms.

"Was he not the brains behind Black Wednesday?"

LOL. Yes, I'm sure it was David Cameron's idea!

Rebel-i reject that the poll results have been disappointing.
Since Cameron became leader we have had a sustained period of leads over labour.I feel that some people were expecting far to much of Cameron.To reach a lead over labour without any policy to speak of is a huge achievement for this party.We have not had these kinds of results in years and Cameron has made an impact.The notion that we should somehow be 6-10 points ahead is highly unrealisic.No matter who became leader of our great party would have been faced with a huge uphill struggle to win the next election.I always thought that the target of a win at the next election was unreachable.The poll results of late point towards a hung parliment,and if we acvhieve that in my opinion it would be a massive acheivement!

"Poll numbers remain disappointing for DC."

oh please 'Rebel', this stuff is getting tiresome. It must be so disappinting to have the best sustained polling in over a decade, the best chance of victory at the next election since 1992 and the most chance of being taken seriously as a party of government since 1990.

Apparently BPIX don't make their questions or data available so it's hard to know how much faith to put in the Brown as leader question - it might be a watered down repeat of the farcical News of the World poll.

However the trend of BPIX polls is in our favour and the LDs on these numbers get wiped out when doing simple predictions on Electoral Calculus; which is always a pleasant way to spend 5 minutes.

"However the trend of BPIX polls is in our favour and the LDs on these numbers get wiped out when doing simple predictions on Electoral Calculus; which is always a pleasant way to spend 5 minutes."

Is Electoral Calculus still online? Every time I try to visit these days, I get the 'Cannot Find Server' page. I wanted to plug Smithson's 38/38/13 figures in and laugh my head off at the prospect of LD wipeout... :-(

Daniel - definitely still there, at http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/index.html

Daniel try this:

Electoral Calculus

it works OK for me!

on 38/38/13 it gives the LDs 3 seats and Ming the Merciless falls to us, his empire reduced to some chilly outposts in the far north of Scotland - ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha (continue for at least 5 minutes before looking round to check no-one overheard you)

"Was he not the brains behind Black Wednesday?"

Which bit is he referring to? The 15% base rate or the actual withdrawal from the ERM ("White Wednesday")?

"on 38/38/13 it gives the LDs 3 seats and Ming the Merciless falls to us, his empire reduced to some chilly outposts in the far north of Scotland - ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha (continue for at least 5 minutes before looking round to check no-one overheard you) "

Sadly those figures would also produce a Labour majority of 58. Let's remember our objective is to win elections, not a embarrass a potential Labour vote-splitting party.

Does electoral calculus take intro account the new seats boundaries? If it doesn't Labour's majority falls by about 20 (I think).

Sadly those figures would also produce a Labour majority of 58

Quite right, such exercises are of course merely displacement activity to get away from the marking (I'm a teacher) I should be doing!

According to Electoral Calculus we should gain about 22 seats from the boundary changes but their predictions don't take this into account yet. Of course the predictions assume uniform national swing and we know this isn't going to happen.

"Let's remember our objective is to win elections, not a embarrass a potential Labour vote-splitting party."

Yes, but, oh, what fun!

*sulks* Nope still can't get to Electoral Calculus. Perhaps I'm banned.

I just clicked on Kingbongo's link and got it first time. Very interesting, though with three years to go only theoretical!

"Quite right, such exercises are of course merely displacement activity to get away from the marking (I'm a teacher) I should be doing!"

You're not alone! As someone on the other end of the teacher/student scale, I fully sympthasise with the use of electoralcalculus as displacement activity. It sure beats writing essays about Mussolini's consolidation of power...

It depends how strongly the libdem leaching of labour is......

The poll is fantastic, this month was Cameron's worst and he's doing well and not dived...

Ime sorry this is very much off topic but i thought i would ask the question here because alot of members are currently posting here.

I recently joined the party,as i am classed as ‘youth’ i presumed i would also be joining conservative future,however when i recieved my membership package on friday,there was nothing that mentioned Conservative Future.All i got was a small booklet about the the conservatives and a letter that also contained my card.

I would like to know if this is normal practice or if a mistake had been made and i was meant to recieve something from Conservative Future?

Again ime sorry to go off-topic!

Ah, the Conservative Future...I didnt get anything from the Conservative Future per se but that was because I joined with the Association direct. You dont necessarily get anything extra for joining the CF (those 30 or under) but to be frank, dont expect anything...

You won't get any central material sent out from CF. It'll depend entirely on whether your association or branch has an active CF organisation. Get in touch with your local association...


Brown probably *is* more popular than Blair overall, but with different people.

Blair is the more popular with leftish Conservatives. He comes over as one of them, and that explains why Labour has been able to hold onto so many Southern middle class seats (albeit losing a considerable amount of ground last year).

Brown is more popular with Labour voters. He'd probably motivate a lot more people to come out and vote Labour in seats that Labour already holds. It's quite possible that 38% under Brown would produce a worse result for Labour than 36% under Blair - becasuse Brown would be piling up votes in all the wrong places for Labour.

In reality, Brown is neither more nor less left-wing than Blair - but people seem to think he is.

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