Reports of the death of the LibDems have been exaggerated

Gordon Brown has a new MP... a Liberal Democrat MP.   A swing of 16% gives the scandal-struck third party its 63rd parliamentary seat.  It is a huge blow to the Chancellor.  He actively intervened in the by-election campaign but was unable to prevent anger at the Iraq war from helping to defeat the Labour candidate.   

The result also ends a poor week for David Cameron.  Tony Blair got the better of the Tory leader at this week's PMQs and Mr Cameron's big strategy to destroy the LibDems has been set back by this result.  The Times:

"The poor Tory showing is an embarrassment for David Cameron, the Conservative leader, who made a direct appeal to Liberal Democrats in the constituency to come over to the Conservatives, claiming that he was a “liberal Conservative” and that his party now agreed with the Lib Dems on Iraq. That apparent gaffe was exploited to the full by Tony Blair in the Commons but he may well have helped the Lib Dem cause."

The Tory vote was squeezed by the LibDems as they pushed past the Labour candidate but the fall in Tory support from over 10% to under 8% is a reminder of the long, hard road that still lies before the Conservative Party.

Comments

[Ted]

A disappointing result for us and one that shows the LD still masters of by-election politics.
It was unlikely that we would from 4th place offer any real alternative to Labour so I think we can reasonably claim tactical voting affected our share - and it was good that the tactical votes went to the LDS and not the SNP.
I am concerned though that the "liberal conservative" message also gave 'permission' to our potential voters to move across - why vote for the liberal Tory when you can vote for the liberal?
...though perhaps in Lab/Lib marginals we should sprinkle our literature with lib supporting rhetoric to get Labour out while in Lab/Con & Lib/Con we lose the liberal tag and use a different set of messages (now which party is it that has different policies in different parts of the countries?)

[Stephen B]

Ted, I'm not sure whether replacing Labour with Liberals is neccessarily a good thing - after all they are in bed with each other in government here is Scotland and seem to generally be enthusiastic about pursuing the same busted policies as each other.

If a Tory revival ever occurs in Scotland (and I have my doubts) it will take a long time and will start at ground level with councillors, not with MPs at by-elections.

[EU Serf]

Its a splash of cold water to bring us to our senses. Sure we have risen in the polls, but actually winning is going to be a slog.

[Rob]

Yep a disppointing result but insignificant in terms of the wider picture.

[Kevin Davis]

Seems like falling turonout and drift to the Lib Dems did it. Pretty impressive that with so many high profile politicians marching across the patch they could only get a turnout of 48%!!

Depressing nevertheless!!

[Rob Largan]

On a whole this by-election doesnt tell us very much at all about Cameron's success. We will have to wait until the local elections get any real picture of how he actually doing amoung voters. This really doesnt look very good though.

[Rob]

'This really doesnt look very good though.'

Yep, I agree that it doesn't help on the perception front and it was probably a tactical mistake to raise any expectations of an improvement in an area like Dunfermline. Yet, still don't think the result has any wider ramifications.

[Matthew Hewitt]

I agree whith those who have commented that this doesn't mean a lot in the scheme of things. The Lib Dems appear to have benefitted from a strong anti-government reaction and we were never going to be in a position to win. I think this makes the future very interesting as Labour will struggle at the next election the way things are going.

[malcolm]

Ed,do you know anyone who was involved with our campaign in Dunfermline?Perhaps you could get them to write of their impressions of what happened there as coverage in the national press has been lamentable.
Personally I am suprised at the result,I thought Labour would retain this seat easily because they seemed to be trying harder than anyone else and the fact that the last month has been a disaster for the Lib Dems.I did expect our share to increase and am disappointed that it didn't.

[James Hellyer]

A cynic might say that this shows that the success of Cameron has little reach beyond the liberal metropolitan elite.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

I see the usual Cameronite spinmeisters are at work again. Let's face facts guys - this result was very poor indeed for Cameron, who maintained a very visible presence during this campaign, and was a damning indictment of the candidate selection, nay, imposition process that the new regime is so keen on.

[Richard]

All political parties involved in yesterday's by-election will have lessons to learn. For us the result was not good, in fact Hague, IDS and Howard all did better in by-elections than Cameron did yesterday. Yesterday our share of the vote went down. How could this have happened, especially when the opinion polls look so good? I think it is down to two things. Firstly we parachuted in a candidate against the wishes of the local association, thus displacing a loyal and seemingly popular local councillor. It would have been interesting to see how the local press ran with this. Secondly we put out mixed messages, leaving voters slightly unsure as to where we stood.

As a party we need to learn the lessons of yesterday so that we don't repeat them again.

[Alan Howard]

"A cynic might say that this shows that the success of Cameron has little reach beyond the liberal metropolitan elite."

Not a cynic, but an optimistic realist.

Most UK voters live in the urban South/East, where the opinions of the liberal metropolitan elite are by far the most important factor in swinging votes.

By contrast, a little town in Scotland is completely irrelevant. Sorry!

[Rob Largan]

I hope I'm not included in 'the usual Cameronite spinmeisters'.

[Rob]

'This result was very poor indeed for Cameron, who maintained a very visible presence during this campaign, and was a damning indictment of the candidate selection, nay, imposition process that the new regime is so keen on.'

Yep, as I said on a previous post I think it was a tactical mistake to have raised expectations here. This was a catastrophic result for Labour and it's a pity that we have allowed even a smidgeon of an opportunity for people to say that 'it was also bad for the Tories'.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

"Most UK voters live in the urban South/East, where the opinions of the liberal metropolitan elite are by far the most important factor in swinging votes.

By contrast, a little town in Scotland is completely irrelevant. Sorry!"

So your ideal strategy for the next election would be to not bother contesting seats outside the South and East? Genius!

[James Turner]

For an electoral geek and Conservative like me, the biggest disappointment in recent years has been the dearth of Lab/Con marginal byelections. When we have one of those, then we can see what effect Cameron is really having on the electoral as opposed to purely political landscape. I have to say I think this is a terrible blow to Brown.

[Rob]

Richard

The reason our share of the vote went down is because we suffered from a classic by-election squeeze. It is actually slightly surprising that it didn't go dowh further.

[malcolm]

What's the story on us parachuting in this candidate against the wishes of the local association?I wasn't aware of it.

[Rob Largan]

It is possible that a number of Conservative voters, may have voted tactically to give Gordon Brown the finger. This still looks very bad.

[Rob]

I think that if you wanted to extrapolate something from this onto the large political picture it would be that the next election will be a very closely fought contest.

This result was possibly Labour's worst by-election defeat they have had because it is right in he middle of their heartland and the Brown factor (apparently negative) was in play. This government, from this evidence, is on the way out.

Of course, we would all have wanted the party to leap from 4th to 1st in a by-election miracle but that is 'fantasy' politics.

[Andy Peterkin]

Im certainly no "Cameronite Spinmeister", but lets keep some perspective. We missed by 2,500 votes in this seat in 1983 (when there was considerably less of Dunfermline and more of Fife in it).

Q: Do we need to do well here to win a thumping Westminster majority?

A: No.

As for perception, I don't think anyone is going to have "the Conservatives doing badly" as their central memory of this by-election, nor do I think it gives the Lib Dems much of a fillip in the Home Counties and the South West, which is what we're interested in.

That said, a doable Lab/Con by-election would be good, both to assess our new strategy, and to build some momentum.

[Alan]

Rob,

All I'm saying is that Cameron can easily form a Government without a single Scottish Tory MP.

Scottish politics is increasingly disengaging from the UK following devolution and the Tories require a separate strategy there. Our votes north of the border are likely to have little to do with what Cameron gets up to in London.

However, winning seats from LibDems and Labour in England is what the next election is all about. Look at the demographics.

I repeat: Yesterday's by-election is irrelevant to that contest.

[Sean Fear]

Most UK voters live in the urban South/East, where the opinions of the liberal metropolitan elite are by far the most important factor in swinging votes

Actually, we did reasonably well in those areas on May 5th; voters in the South and East Anglia are, on average, to the Right of centre.

Where we did badly was in Scotland, the North, and the urban Midlands.

[Rob]

Andy

For possibly the first time on this blog I agree with your analysis. That's a relief.

[Account Deleted]

I think that the by-election might have shown Cameron has yet to persuade people to go out and vote for us - to show them the 'vision' thing. Without it, people think 'I might as well vote Lib Dem to protest against Labour'. Plus the Lib Dems can promise everything under the sun as they will never actually be the sole party in power.

Cameron simply dropping policies might 'deconatminate' the brand, but we also need to have a positive message to get across, which at this stage in the electoral cycle we just don't have, and to some extent, can't have.

I think that we have to wait a while to see where we are going - though those who think Cameron is an automatic ticket to power are mistaken, those who are grumbling already need to give him more than 3 months to prove himself.

It was also a terrible night for Labour as well. But then again, governments in power tend to do appallingly in by-elections. It is just as worrying for us that our vote fell - despite the fact our voters tend to turn out in any case, which inflates our vote in low turnout contests. This didn't seem to happen here.

Long and short - we need to be seen as a positive and realistic alternative, which we are not yet.

[Rob]

'But then again, governments in power tend to do appallingly in by-elections'

Agreed. But there was something additional going on here. In a traditional Labour heartland, with the active and high profile support of the government's next 'almost' annointed leader, they are given a complete kicking. That is more than disgruntlement about an incumbent governmet;that is profound disillusionment.

[James Cleverly]

Can we put this into perspective, we were in fourth place with 10% of the vote, we were a minority party, a political irrelevance. The voters in Dunfermline clearly wanted to give Labour a bloody nose and we were squeezed in the process.

I agree that by raising the profile of our campaign there we have provided a bit of ammunition to the media to knock us with, but I imagine that they were looking for that story anyway. The press can only be gushing about DC for so long.

I think that the real loser was Gordon Brown, If he can’t swing things in his own back yard he should start to worry.

[Frank Young]

This is a massive collapse of the Labour vote and indicates serious trouble. We wouldn't expect to see an increase in our vote in this seat but Labour should have held the seat, especially with a sympathy vote.

[Account Deleted]

I do think it is worrying that people believe we only need to do well in the south and east. Even taken together, the Eastern region, the South East, East Anglia, and the South West gives a total of 234 seats. That's if we win every single one. Which still leaves us around 100 seats short of a working majority.

[Account Deleted]

I agree Labour did appallingly badly. But they have been in power for 9 years. A similiar analogy for them would be the by-elections for us in the third Thatcher term. These were lost on huge swings but we still came back in 1992. I do believe Labour is in trouble but not as much as this indicates. Labour in the last parliament suffered a 29% swing in Brent and a 15% swing in Leiecester South. They are still comfortably in power with a 64 seat majority.

[Andy Peterkin]

1AM - realistically, in terms of the Lib Dems, we are pricipally concerned with London Orbital (Richmond Park, Carshalton etc.), South Central (Winchester, Eastliegh), South West (Devon), and some Northern outposts like Westmorland & Lonsdale, Cheadle, Hazel Grove and Harrogate.

Getting squeezed by them in a two horse race by-election in a seat we've never won is really small beer in national terms.

[Ted]

A bit of light relief (thanks to Dan on PoliticalBetting)

Based on the vote changes in the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election, here are the results of a General Election:

Liberal Democrat Majority 140

L D 38.24% 393 MPs
Con 30.74% 220 MPs
Lab 19.30% 1 MP

[William Norton]

This result is disappointing precisely because it is unsurprising and irrelevant. It marks no change to the narrative of the last few years (people still think the best way to punish Labour is to vote Lib Dem) and no break out of the Tory heartland (if our vote had taken off in this election it would have been an unequivocal sign of a sea-change).

[Account Deleted]

I agree - it is probably too early to know how we'd do till we have a straight lib dem- conservative fight.

I just don't think that the Labour Party did as appallingly as it looks, and that we can be complacent.

[Rob Largan]

The extent to which labour has been damaged by this result shouldnt be under estimated. It does look like a government in free fall, cant win votes in the Commons or By-elections in its heartlands. However bad the result might look for Cameron's Conservatives, it looks 100 times worse for Gordon Brown's Labour Party.

[Michael Tombs]

One of the main lessons to take from the result is the resilience of the Lib Dems. Things could hardly have gone worse for them over the past month, and yet they have pulled off what is a stunning victory.

The strategy of extending the Conservative reach into what is Lib Dem territory may prove much harder to implement than Cameron and co may have thought.

[William Norton]

Were there any council elections yesterday? I don't know enough about Scotch politics to know how representative Dunfermline & Whatsit is, but perhaps we could get a better grip on the context with some other results from around the country?

[James Cleverly]

I can’t believe that the Lib Dems got in because there was a real passion about returning a Lib Dem MP. There result was a more to do with supporting the party most likely to unseat the Labour MP.

A real concern of mine is the number of Labour seats where we were in second place after 2001 and are now in third. If we do not come up with something to neutralise the “Two horse race” campaigning of the Lib Dems we will suffer in 2009/2010.

It is essential that we make the idea of voting for the Lib Dems politically unacceptable.

[Andy Peterkin]

Hartburn Ward, Stockton BC

Terence Laing (Con) - 1396
Joseph Rayner (Lab) - 277
David Hamilton-Milburn (LD) - 115

Con Hold.

With Authority.

[Sean Fear]

I'm not so bothered by that James. Out of the 100 most marginal Labour seats, we're second in 88. Where we slipped into third was, in general, where it didn't really matter.

[johnC]

3 depressing statistics:

The last Tory by-election victory was in 1999 (Kensington)

The last Tory by-election gain was in 1982
(Merton Mitcham and Morden)

The last Tory by-election victory in Scotland was in 1973 (Edinburgh North)

[Sean Fear]

"The last Tory by-election victory in Scotland was in 1973 (Edinburgh North)"

Surely it was Glasgow Pollock in 1967? Although our win in Ayr, in 2000, was at Scottish Parliamentary level.

[johnC]

The by-electiion at Edinburgh North on 8th November 1973 returned the Conservative candidate, A.M. Fletcher, the by-election having been caused by the succession to the Dukedom of Buccleugh by the Earl of Dalkieth.

[Sean Fear]

Ah. I was thinking of by-election *gains*. Given how unpopular we were in 1973, that was an extremely good result.

[johnC]

I think it must also be the last by-election caused by succession to the peerage.

[Chris Palmer]

I am curious. There were 6,500 postal votes. I wonder if they were all valid, or if there was some tampering?

[Graeme Archer]

I think two things about Dunfermline (apart from - Gordon Brown! ha ha! Our next PM is from another country and has an opposition MP representing him at Westminster. Bring on the West Lothian stuff).

1) Unfortunately politics in Scotland has gone from being difficult for the centre right to just bloody ridiculous. Scotland won't wake up from its whinging victim culture (with the concomittant vote for who-will-pay-me-most politics) until forced into proper independence, I would guess.

2) The astonishing thing is not that we were 4th, it's that the lib dems and not the nationalists won the seat from Labour. I can't imagine that it was an antiwar vote that gave the LDs their win so am assuming it was an anti-govt vote which makes me wonder to what extent the SNP are the ones really in trouble as a result of this by-election.

oh and 3) PS sorry to be scottish-whinger etc ad nauseam, William - it's "scots" or "scottish"; scotch being a decent drink traditionally used in lieu of sherry north of the border to determine the suitability or otherwise of PPCs.

[Rob]

How about a policy commitment from us that, if elected, we would offer the Scots a referendum on 'independence'

[Selsdon Man]

The Guardian statistics show that we were second to Rachel Squire in 1992 with 8890 votes. We are now fourth with less than 3000. That matters IMO.

[Editor]

On Malcolm's point... if anyone out there knows about the Dunfermline campaign and would like to write about it please email me at [email protected].

[Chris]

I'm of the view that is held by quite a few that we never had a chance in this constituency, who is going to waste their vote on the 4th party, if they are desperate to see a regime change. We were simply a victim of tactical voting orth of the border, its nothing to be ashamed of.

"How about a policy commitment from us that, if elected, we would offer the Scots a referendum on 'independence'"
I'd rather phrase the question as "We are going to scrap all current devolution, would you like independence?", then again despite it being the right thing to o, it would probably be political suicide.

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

We are very unlikely to win any parliamentary by-election where we were on less than 20% in 2005. The Fife by-election doesn’t matter for us – the real losers were New Labour and the SNP. The real question is have we learnt anything from the LibDems when it comes to by-election campaigning/winning? I think not but even if we had, the Fife result would have been the same!

[Richard]

"Most UK voters live in the urban South/East, where the opinions of the liberal metropolitan elite are by far the most important factor in swinging votes

Actually, we did reasonably well in those areas on May 5th; voters in the South and East Anglia are, on average, to the Right of centre.

Where we did badly was in Scotland, the North, and the urban Midlands."

Good point Sean, I would like to see one of the modernisers answer this.

As for the Scottish result, I can't say I'm surprised. 1)The Tories were never going to win so 2)Tory voters either stayed at home or voted tactically for the Lib Dems.

Nevertheless it's amazing to think the Tories used to get over 50% of the Scottish vote. I'm curious to know how we lost it (I'm aware of the poll tax fiasco but I expect our vote had been dropping before then).

[Selsdon Man]

Chris, we were second in that constituency until 1997 when we came fourth. Last night's result was awful - our vote slumped by a third compared to May. We were supposed to have the new model candidate that would take us close to third. That did not happen.

[Selsdon Man]

The SNP share of the vote went up too. That was not tactical voting.

[Rob]

'Last night's result was awful'

For Gordon Brown and Labour

[Mark Fulford]

It seems to me that the appeal to similarity can be read both ways. In constituencies where we’re third, not second, Conservatives can justify a vote to Lib Dem because David Cameron is telling us that some parts of the parties are similar.

Provided that it works the other way too, and I suspect it does, this is not bad news and could even be interpreted as vindication of the strategy… constituencies where we’re third are lost causes for us but, similarly, constituencies where Lib Dems are third are lost causes for them. It’s two-and-a-half party politics.

[Account Deleted]

I have to say that the idea of the "liberal metropolitan elite" being enough to swing it for us is laughable.

Even in Islington I have met a lot of people who (quietly) will agree with tax breaks for marriage, limits on immigration, complain about political correctness, poor discipline in schools, lack of police action on the ground, etc etc.

The reason such people don't tend to like us is they think we are only in it for ourselves and the rich. And even if they are middle class it makes them uncomfortable. Besides, they can afford NuLab's wasted tax bills, (though their enthusiasm is waning) and it is a small price for them to pay for feeling good about themselves.

In Scotland people are socialist, not liberal. I dated a Scottish guy and his views on politics could have been written by a Trade Unionist circa 1979. And he was a smart guy!

[Rob]

Mark

You might be right. Some people talked about 'tactical vote unwind' at the last election and what we might see at the next election, is tactical voting between Conservative and Lib Dems to keep Labour out. Depends on what strategy the next Lib Dem leader adopts.

[Ted]

Richard - interestingly same happened in Quebec; major cities leftist most of province conservative then the Nationalists took over. Last election saw a move back to conservatives from nationalists though.
Graeme - though I'm unionist would a rebranded Scots Conservative Party with a separate Scots identity be more or less likely to attract Scots voters? I'm thinking of the Germany CDU with Bavarian CSU but with a closer tie up. We could perhaps also look to extending this to Wales & N Ireland. Is the Conservative Party too identified with English interests?

[On the Scottish List (but for how much longer?)]

Carrie Ruxton was imposed on the association by means of a rigged shortlist announced from central office. The previous candidate, Stuart Randall, despite being a by-election approved candidate, was excluded from it by David Mundell, MP. Stuart was a hard working activist, who devoted the last 8 years of his life to working for the party - and won our first local cllr in the area.

Ruxton had: no connections to the area, no involvement in Tory politics north of the border, and fought a dreadful Westminster campaign in Northavon in 2001. After a very poor performance as a candidate, she turned a Tory target seat into a safe Lib Dem constituency for Steve Webb. She will doubtless be rewarded with a high-up place on the Party List for Hoylrood though.

At Ruxton's 'selection meeting' this time, so disgusted were D&WF Tories at the pitiful choice put before them, only 6 of them turned up. Of the other 2 candidates on the compulsory SCO shortlist, both were non-runners. The token male was a student, and the other woman did not know she was on the shortlist until Central Office rang her up and told her she was.

In consequence, Cameron was determined to have a woman for his first by-election as leader. And he got one, and a single mother to boot. She waged a bad campaign this time, just as she did in 2001, and Cameron's high profile interventions in the by-election have only helped stabilise the Liberals. This is the upshot of Central Office's politically correct efforts to rig candidate selection. This is what happens when people's "friends" are parachuted into high-profile seats.

We should have run with Stuart, boring middle aged white man as he doubtless seems to the clever people in London. And if anyone thinks that, 'Gordon Brown is the real loser', you are deluding yourselves. WE are only going to win the next election, or even come close, if we win 30 to 40 Liberal seats. This is our problem. The result in Scotland last night is a shot in the arm for the Liberals, and a demonstration that Cameron's tactics are wrong-headed.

I expect to be attacked by the leader's cheerleaders for having said all this. Those attacks I would respect a little bit more if I did not know for sure that the very same people would have been beating their chests if we had got into 3rd place/increased our share of the vote/or done anything that could be made to look like a step forward.

Local Tories should be allowed to select our candidates: they do a better job of it than David Cameron and Central Office.

[Campbell Storey]

As a Tory from Newcastle, I find some of the comments above deeply disturbing. Apparently, Scotland doesn't matter because we could secure a majority without it. It may seem old fashioned, but MPs are elected to Westminster, which is the Parliament of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. By attempting to secure Westminster majorities based on a strategy of 'South-east plus' the party will become increasingly marginalised, and guess what, end up as an irrelevance which comes fourth. Outside the south-east we are being ignored, and frankly, we give the electorate no reason to do other.

[Chad]

"I did expect our share to increase and am disappointed that it didn't."

I'm no Inspector Clouseau, but seeing as Gordon Brown lives in the neighbouring constituency, and seeing as that now infamous CCameron onservative campaign leaflet was posted through his door, could it be.. that we campaigned in the wrong constituency?

[Chris]

Chris, we were second in that constituency until 1997 when we came fourth. Last night's result was awful - our vote slumped by a third compared to May. We were supposed to have the new model candidate that would take us close to third.
This is what happens when a candidate is forced upon a constituency. Personally I feel we'd do a lot bette in by-elections if we fielded the same candidate as we did in the general election pre-ceding it, then we'd seem more like we wanted to help be part of the community, rather than just win the seat to boost our numbers.

Apparently, Scotland doesn't matter because we could secure a majority without it. It may seem old fashioned, but MPs are elected to Westminster, which is the Parliament of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
The thikng is the only thing Scots are currently interested in is increasing the power of their parliament (To reverse the foolish decisions made in Westminster) whilst continuing to allow English taxes to fund them. Scotland is in effect a lost cause, and I found it an absolute miracle when we won a Scottish seat last May.

[Selsdon Man]

Carrie Ruxton did have connections with the area. She born and raised in Fife. She stood as Scottish Parliament candidate for Dunfermline East in 1999. One of her election leaflets, available for download on a Glasgow academic site, bore the imprint of a Mrs P Ruxton of Dalgety Bay, probably her mother.

I have a lot of sympathy for Stuart Randall who would have made an excellent candidate. It is wrong, however, to make smear Ms Ruxton with inaccuracies. You expose the Editor to legal action.

[On the Scottish List (but for how much longer?)]

Thanks Selsdon for picking up on what was a typo. I had meant to write "recent" before political connections. But on reflection, even this would have been too weak. So yes, Carrie had some local form, BUT, you've got to know the area. She's Fife, D&WF is much more D than it is F.

[TC]

Gordon Brown lives in the constituency but has his seat in the neighbouring constituency. Now he knows what it is like to have to have the embarassment of having a LD fruit cake as a MP.

"We are only going to win the next election, or even come close, if we win 30 to 40 Liberal seats. This is our problem."

The truth is if we do win the next election, it is still unlikely that we would get above 4th place in this seat.

[Michael McGowan]

A fascinating outcome. The Lib Dems have shown their resilience, despite the infighting among their own metropolitan elite, and their well-entrenched boring white male middle class but LOCAL candidate has played a blinder. CCO's crude attempt to replicate NuLabour's failed strategy in Blaenau Gwent has predictably backfired.

The message to DC and Francis Maude is the same one that the New Zealand press delivered to Alastair Campbell after the All Blacks crushed the Lions: now spin that!!

[Cllr Iain Lindley]

Yesterday was a disastrous day for Labour, and yet the usual suspects are using it to have another go at their own party. How depressing.

I won't claim 8% of the vote is a good result - it plainly isn't. I also think we made a PR error in raising expectations. However, in wider terms our result in a seat like Dunfermline and West Fife is about as significant for us as Labour's results in the Romsey and Cheadle by-elections.

A sustained campaign over months and years will improve our position in those seats. A month's smash-and-grab by-election campaigning, when at least two other parties are putting out daily leaflets saying "the Tories can't win here", will not - whoever our candidate is, whoever our leader is, whoever our Scottish leader is, however good our literature is.

[Goldie]

That we didn't do better in Gordon Brown's backyard isn't at all surprising.

The Swing to the LibDems is much more surprising, but it shows their tremendous strength in retail politics. Something we should learn from. Local candidates, local campaigns, local passion together deliver local results. Of course this goes against Maude's centralizing.

But the big error here was that stupid visit by DC and especially his openly uttered expectation that there would be a conservative surprise of sorts. He should have known better.

[Chris Palmer]

Anyone who stands as a Conservative party candidate, and achieves a result that is far worse that the national swing should not be on the Conservative A-list. I will give you two very good examples:

1) Iain Dale in the 2005 General Election in North Norfolk had a swing of -6.3 when as a whole, the Conservative party gained nationally. Such an appauling result should discount him from standing in another constituency at the next election. (If he does stand, it will be obvious that it is a result of his homosexuality rather than of his proven track record.)

2) David Cameron. He stood in 1997 for the safe seat of Stafford (a Conservative majority of 10,000 votes.) However, he lost the seat by 4,000 votes - a swing far worse than the national average. He was then handed the safe seat of Whitney in 2001. Based on this, would Mr Cameron be on his own A-list, especially as he is white, male and middle-aged?

[Chris Palmer]

Anyone who stands as a Conservative party candidate, and achieves a result that is far worse that the national swing should not be on the Conservative A-list. I will give you two very good examples:

1) Iain Dale in the 2005 General Election in North Norfolk had a swing of -6.3 when as a whole, the Conservative party gained nationally. Such an appauling result should discount him from standing in another constituency at the next election. (If he does stand, it will be obvious that it is a result of his homosexuality rather than of his proven track record.)

2) David Cameron. He stood in 1997 for the safe seat of Stafford (a Conservative majority of 10,000 votes.) However, he lost the seat by 4,000 votes - a swing far worse than the national average. He was then handed the safe seat of Whitney in 2001. Based on this, would Mr Cameron be on his own A-list, especially as he is white, male and middle-aged?

[Selsdon Man]

Yesterday's result should be seen as a reflection of the decline of the party's electoral performance in Scotland, especially over the last ten to twenty years. In the 1950s, the Conservatives got over 50% of the vote in Scotland.

[Michael McGowan]

Just one comment to Iain Lindley: this was a significantly worse result for the Tories than May 2005, despite Cameron's honeymoon, Labour's declining popularity and the Lib Dems' bad PR in the national press. I don't for one moment think that this byelectionhas huge widespread significance.....but are you next going to tell me that the Tory result last May in Dunfermline and Fife was a great result, so that this isn't a setback at all?

[Cllr Iain Lindley]

Chris, I am not surprised you mention Iain Dale in that list, given the consistent homophobia of your blog entries. I'm sure it was completely random.

In any case, you are talking rot. Some candidates are poor, and others are lumbered with dreadful constituency associations. Sometimes - believe it or not - the opposition candidate is particularly popular. Automatic barring of failed candidates would remove an awful lot of talented individuals.

Secondly, Cameron's result in Stafford has already been done to death. The Stafford constituency was substantially altered by boundary changes, and his notional majority was a mere 6.6%. Every single Conservative candidate in that position got annihilated, including many extremely good candidates.

Ask yourself, if Stafford was safe, why did (sitting MP) Bill Cash choose to fight Stone instead?

[Sean Fear]

Chris, sometimes you can just be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

One man who would have made an outstanding Tory MP was Peter Goldman. But he had the misfortune to be chosen as our candidate for the Orpington by-election in 1962.

Cameron's result in Stafford in 1997 was no worse than the national average (a swing of 10.6%).

[Rob Largan]

"this was a significantly worse result for the Tories than May 2005"

Could be something to do with the fact that in 2005 we had a Welsh leader now we have a very very English leader.

[comstock]

"Apparently, Scotland doesn't matter because we could secure a majority without it. It may seem old fashioned, but MPs are elected to Westminster, which is the Parliament of Great Britain and Northern Ireland"

Well Northern Ireland has been ruled for years by parties that have not a single *vote*, let alone seat over there!

[Chris Palmer]

"Chris, I am not surprised you mention Iain Dale in that list, given the consistent homophobia of your blog entries. I'm sure it was completely random." - Cllr Iain Lindley

Iain Dale is a good example. In my opinion, his performance was sufficiently poor enough that he should not be given a place on the A-list. Like I said before, if he does get a place, it will be because he was David Davis' campaign manager or that he's a homosexual. North Norfolk was not a dreadful constituency, it was a high priority Conservative target seat and he completely fluffed it.

My point about David Cameron was questioning rather than a statement. What I have said is not "rot" - it's just that you don't like it. Tell me Iain, do you believe that after such a performance, Mr Dale should be given another seat when there are equally good candidates that want a chance?

[Chris Palmer]

"Automatic barring of failed candidates would remove an awful lot of talented individuals." - Cllr Iain Lindley

Also, I wasn't talking about the automatic barring of candidates, I was talking about the barring of candidates who performed substantially worse than the national swing.

[Selsdon Man]

I should point out that the Scottish Mail on Sunday (last Sunday) ran an article headline "Dave's Doll, the sex doctor and the strange case of the miracle slim pills".

It alleged that Ms Ruxton was involved in research for slimming pills, paid for by a Danish doctor who writes sex books. It also alleged that she undertook research for the British sugar industry and quoted her in a research paper as claiming that there is no clear link between sugar consumption and adverse health effects.

The tone of the critical piece was very hostile. Such an article so close to election day could affected the Conservative vote on polling day.

[John Hustings]

On another point, I thought that the new Lib Dem MP gave a truly appalling acceptance speech. If you ever win a close contest, it is a good idea to show a little graciousness afterwards.

[malcolm]

On the Scottish list etc...thanks for answering my question.It does seem that we should pick candidates with strong local connections and it would be most helpful if we gave candidates some time to build a local profile.'Parachuting' candidates at short notice into anything other than the safest of seats does not seem to me good politics.
Chris Palmer,I thought your post regarding Iain Dale and Cameron ill judged.Iain,I have known for many years and a harder working person for the party I've yet to meet. I don't know why he suffered a swing against him and I suspect neither do you.There is as far as I'm aware no evidence that it was personal.
Camerons election at the Stafford seat has been well discussed.I'm glad he's been given a second chance,I hope Iain is too.

[Cllr Iain Lindley]

Also, I wasn't talking about the automatic barring of candidates, I was talking about the barring of candidates who performed substantially worse than the national swing.

I think this would be unwise, because it gives no regard to why they underperformed the swing. Some factors that come into play, that are by-and-large out of the hands of the candidate:

1. How strong is the local association? Is there any infighting? Is the membership low? Are the local members unwilling to help?

2. Did the seat outperform the average last time? Less room for improvement if so...

3. How strong is the opposition campaign? Is the sitting MP popular? Are they standing down? Is there a strong third-party candidate?

[Selsdon Man]

Does anyone know whether the Lib Dems used Iain Dale's homosexuality against him - like Simon Hughes did against Peter Tatchell?

[malcolm]

As far as I'm aware they did not.The only person who seemed to think it an issue was Simon Heffer who wrote an anti homosexual candidate piece in the D.Mail

[Cllr Iain Lindley]

I might add to my previous post that I'm not trying to defend weak candidates, and there undoubtedly are weak candidates. However, some weak candidates score good results, and some strong candidates perform poorly, both due to factors outside the individuals control.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

As the site's self-appointed resident Stafford 97 expert, I just have to say Chris Palmer's assessment of David Cameron's performance is correct and no amount of blather from the usual Cameron apologists is going to change that.

[Ted]

This thread started off about today and the future and is yet again becoming a navel gazing view backwards about what happened where & when.
We didn't do well, was this because there was a sensible tactical move to unseat the Labour candidate? was it worsened by constituency in-fighting over candidates? is it a particularly Scots problem? what should CCO & constituencies learn from this?

[Selsdon Man]

The party needs to look at how it runs by-election campaigns. The Lib Dems are much better at it, even when they run an outsider as the candidate.

[malcolm]

Good post Ted.You're absolutely right.

[Ted]

Question?
Which of these two alternatives would bloggers have preferred this morning:
1 Labour scrape home by 900 votes to hold Dunnfermline with reduced majority. Tories vote share rises to 15%
2 Labour lose Dunfermline to Lib Dems, Tory vote drops.

I preferred answer 2 though I realise 1 would have shown we were recovering in Scotland. Labour are much more damaged, and Gordon in particular (even if Darling has taken the blame - how? what did he do?).

[Rob Largan]

It would appear we didnt do well due to tactical voting to unseat Labour and give Gordon Brown the finger. Because of possible problems with our candidate. Because of any number of 'local difficulties'. Because it was in Socialist Scotland. What must we learn? Clearly that this stratergy of going for the Lib Dem vote, will not work.

[Jaz]

CCHQ, Mr Cameron need to wake up!

Scotland does not see the Tory party as viable alternatives to either the SNP, LibDems OR Labour.

The Tory party needs to review entirely its position in Scotland. We are the 3rd/4th Party there and we need to ACT like we are. Currently the Scottish tories believe they can run the same campaign as we do in England where we are either 1st or 2nd in many seats.

The underlying problem is this...

Libdems are continuously lying to the Scottish "pretending" to be the low tax party.
The electorate in THIS by-election constituency should be disgusted to vote in a member whos leaders have had more scandals in the past 4 weeks than any party in a whole term of parliament.

The good news is....
The tories are not mentioned in the media about their decline...
Brown looks crap....
Labour vote is collapsing...!

[Ted]

or perhaps adopt the LD logarithmic graphs showing that we are close behind and could win?

I think we should go for the LD votes but through presentation of messages about their issues not by saying we are all liberals now. Hopefully that lesson will be learnt.

[Rob]

'Clearly that this stratergy of going for the Lib Dem vote, will not work.' Possibly not in Scotland 8 weeks into the new leadership but will work in other areas of the country where we need to win.

[malcolm]

Why Rob Largan?We need to get votes from somewhere in Scotland,should we target the Scots Nats? I don't think so.The only alternative is to give up!
My tuppence.In bye elections always choose a local candidate who has been in the area a while and campaign primarily on local issues.All the senior Lib Dems went to Dunfermline, did ours?OK I know this didn't work for Brown!Could we have made more use of high profile Scots like Fox or Rifkind?
Apart from Camerons one visit I've heard nothing else about our campaign at all.

[Ted]

Asked Graeme Archer earlier if a truly separate Scots Party in federation with the Conservative Party in England for UK election purposes (CDU/CSU) would be the answer in Scotland or is that defeatist?

[Jaz]

The problem the libdems have in England are entirely different.

Their success in Scotland is due to the lack of conservative precense.

The tories in England can benifit hugely from strong libdems... The labour-Cons marginals will almost all go tory when the labour vote gets split between two ways.

In Scotland there is no strong 3rd party..