82% of Tory members are satisfied with David Cameron's leadership...

Sometimes you read the comment threads on this blog and you'd think that dissatisfaction with David Cameron's leadership of the Conservative Party was running high.  It isn't.

SATISFACTION WITH CAMERON'S LEADERSHIP

There are concerns about policy direction but 82% of Tory members are either very satisfied or fairly satisfied with his leadership of the Conservative Party.  Only 16% are in some way dissatisfied.  We'll be publishing a tracker poll on the extent to which these satisfaction ratings rise or fall each and every month of David Cameron's leadership.

TORY PARTY IS ON THE RIGHT COURSE

76% of party members currently think that the Conservative Party is on the right course.  Only 17% think it is on the wrong track.

MEMBERS THINK CAMERON SET TO BE NEXT PM

Buoyed by progress in the opinion polls 77% of Tory members expect Mr Cameron to be Prime Minister after the next General Election.  17%, however, think it unlikely that 'David and Samantha' will be the residents of Number Ten Downing Street after polling day.  The overall grassroots optimism represents an enormous turnaround in the hopes of Tory members since Michael Howard passed the crown to his protege.   

EXTENT OF MODERNISATION

Most members think that the process of modernisation in the Conservative Party has some way still to go.  38% think it has a "long way" to go and 28% think it has a "little way" to go.  12% think it is pretty much in the right place.  14% think modernisation has already gone a "little too far".  6% told ConservativeHome that it had gone "much too far".

Comments

[Peter Franklin]

This poll is great news. Strong endorsement for DC, with criticism well directed at the grammar schools issue and, to a lesser extent, the A-list.

There is a linking theme here, which is social mobility. Grammar schools promote social mobility -- and so should the A list.
Though more women and ethnic minority MPs would be good for the Party, what is more important is more representative spread of educational and professional backgrounds.

As far as I'm aware such considerations are missing for the A-list scheme.

[Clare Lewis]

I was one of those who registered a dissatisfied vote. This is not due to any deep seated dislike of DC but based on his recent strange policy announcements. Tony Blair actually hit the nail on the head when he said at PMQ's that DC is ditching all of his policies which weren't intiated by new Labour. With the new policy groupings I have noticed that Shadow Cabinet members rarely get an outing in the media these days because policy direction is in the hands of people who DC thinks the public will like. There has been a lot of talk on here about Lib Dems defecting to us, I however think we could see some Tories defecting rightwards before the next election - and I am a pretty pinkish Tory!

[Frank Young]

This is disingenuous. I think Cameron is rightly trying to re-claim the policy instincts that Tony Blair originally stole from us. We have been struggling for years against a policy agenda which is essentially our own. Cameron has rightly realised this and is re-instating our own instincts.

[R UK]

Clare I really don't see many Tories defecting to the right. The only real threat was the Mark Oaten version of liberal democracy and that's gone for a burton.

If you mean UKIP or BNP, then those of an extremist or racist viewpoint will be tempted, but eurosceptics can be very reassured by David Cameron's sticking to his EPP commitment. Those who doubt that UKIP has a dubious progeny don't know its history.

They have an innocuous leader in Knapman, but he doesn't control the party. Those who do have what might be called an interesting past. they also make ocasional electoral pact agreements with BNP. The idea that UKIP is just a more eurosceptic form of conservatism is wrong. There is a racist hue to those in control, much as they deny it of course.

Where UKIP have provided a valuable service is for example in starting the referendum on the Constitution, which forced first Michael Howard to match it, then in turn Blair and then Chirac.

Also Nigel Farage UKIP MEP is a powerful communicator who speaks on radio to millions of Americans each week, and they are, as a result starting to understand why the EU has become such a threat to prosperity and freedom. Cameron is well onto the problem of course, but the requirements of getting the party elected have to come first. No wonder people are satisfied with him.

[Richard Allen]

[i]but eurosceptics can be very reassured by David Cameron's sticking to his EPP commitment.[/i]

While I share your feelings about UKIP I am eurosceptic who takes no reasurance from Cameron's EPP stance. It is a trivial issue which is being used to disguise the fact that we won't be addressing any of the major issue surrounding Britain's relationship with the EU.

[Rob Largan]

I think the results of the survey have, once again been very accurate and close to my own feelings. Hopefully this will send a powerful enough message for Cameron to reconsider on Grammar Schools etc.

I agree very much with Peter Franklin, we must show ourselves to be the party of social mobility. It is undoubtedly the most powerful Conservative message we have.

[petersmith]

"Tony Blair actually hit the nail on the head when he said at PMQ's that DC is ditching all of his policies which weren't intiated by new Labour"

I agree, Clare. If it's a tactic, then fine. If it's to regain the 'permission' to be radical, ok, a little while. But the danger is that we just bolstering Labour's agenda, strengthening the 'intellectual' hegemony of the centre-left.

Is there anywhere else to go? That's not the point. That is a vile way of thinking about the poor voter, who deserves policies that make this country better, not just tactics that get jobs for politicians.

[Richard Allen]

Hopefully this will send a powerful enough message for Cameron to reconsider on Grammar Schools etc.

The message that Cameron will take from this is that it doesn't matter if party members disagree with his policies because they will still support him. It is hardly likely to make him change his mind.

[Sean Fear]

"We have been struggling for years against a policy agenda which is essentially our own"

I'm pretty sure that's not the case. Blair is good at making right wing noises to win over Middle Britain, but the big shift of resources into public spending, the appeasement process in Northern Ireland, the growth in regulation of businesses, and the degree of political correctness in the public sector are all Labour's.

[Chris Palmer]

"If you mean UKIP or BNP, then those of an extremist or racist viewpoint will be tempted, but eurosceptics can be very reassured by David Cameron's sticking to his EPP commitment." - R UK

If Conservative campaigners in local areas meet voters who are waivering towards UKIP or BNP from Conservative, then they need reminding that should they vote either UKIP or BNP - then Labour might get in again, and nobody wants that.

[Editor]

Richard Allen: "The message that Cameron will take from this is that it doesn't matter if party members disagree with his policies because they will still support him. It is hardly likely to make him change his mind."

Perhaps but not necessarily Richard. I don't think it's surprising that members who disagree with DC on grammar schools and the A-List are also satisfied with him at this stage. He's only just been elected and has taken the party ahead in the opinion polls and precipitated a LibDem leadership crisis.

What will be interesting will be the way the satisfaction ratings change over time as we poll every month. Will the honeymoon last? We'll find out with your help...

[John Hustings]

Although I am a little surprised at the degree of "satisfaction" expressed in this survey, there was always going to be a relatively positive outcome from it. As we see from the details, people are suppressing whatever reservations they might have about individual policies (and they do have them) in order to give David Cameron the benefit of the doubt for now.

He has been in the job for just over a month so people will be content for now, especially after, as the Editor points out, we have seen an improvement in the party's ratings.

It will be interesting to see how these figures change in the future depending on what Cameron does. I note that the last two speeches/announcements (police reform, social justice) have seen a slight drawing back on the movement leftward that he was taking, and the tearing up of traditional Tory beliefs. (Let's hope that phrase is over?)

I get the feeling that as time goes by there will be pressure on Cameron to produce "substance" (which inevitably means something a little more conservative) especially in order to win over the Murdoch press. Murdoch was speaking on Five Live this evening and expressed reservations about Cameron, since by apeing Labour he doesn't offer any choice for the electorate (and then Murdoch will stick with Labour I feel).

Cameron will *have to* produce distinctive policies (and preferably conservative ones) to keep everyone as satisfied as they are now (according to this survey) up until the next election.

[Jonathan Sheppard]

Interesting article by Murdoch on Cameron which is worth a read. Highlights some of the criticisms of DC coming from some quarters.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4637948.stm

[A H Matlock]

Rupe needs to go a bit easier on the hair dye. Bit too obvious in that picture....

[Chris Palmer]

"It will be interesting to see how these figures change in the future depending on what Cameron does." - John Hustings

Equally interesting will be the reaction of those who oppose his methods now, and what they say in the future.

[R UK]

Richard Allen thinks exiting the EPP is trivial. Once the new grouping is up and running, openly criticising ever closer union, and proposing inside the EUparl a free trading europe of independent nation states , the pace and direction of eurocratisation will in time be halted.

It is deeply unpopular across the whole continent as demonstrated by recent referenda results. There needs to be a political movement to represent these mass opinions and stop the eurocrats imposing a centralised state which no one wants.

David Cameron has just created such a movement. It will in time probably prove to be the most significant political event of the era - Britain and Cameron starting to set the direction for Europe away from the EU cul de sac.

Sorry but if you think that's trivial, then you are not yet informed. No one can blame you as it has all been kept out of the UK media except Ken Clarke doing his best to stop Cameron forming the new grouping, and commentators claiming this to be a sideshow.

For more on this go to www.rogerhelmer.com/epp.asp and see how impossible it is for opposition to the EU to get a hearing. cameron is setting the pace now. others will have to start falling in or get left behind.

It's historic. Shame no one knows what's going on, but then again that's quite helpful in a way so cameron can also pretend it's of little significance and avoid being misrepresented as anti-european which he is not. many have been fighting for this moment for a very long time.

[Richard]

Rupert Murdoch may be a capitalist but he doesn't strike me as much of a conservative. However, where he says things we agree with (criticising the nanny state for example) we shouldn't be afraid to ally with him.

I think his point about the Tories not appearing to offer an alternative to Labour is a particularly good one. Who represents those who want much lower taxes? Not the Tories it would seem. Unless of course Cameron's agenda regarding the voluntary sector is covertly aimed at shrinking the welfare state and therefore the tax burden. We shall see...

[John Hustings]

"Rupert Murdoch may be a capitalist but he doesn't strike me as much of a conservative."

That's true in the sense of not being a traditionalist. But then Margaret Thatcher wasn't much of a conservative in that case either.

[Jill Gunsell]

In the foreground, Cameron should keep making the electability noises he is making now and, in the background, get on with the work of policy development. The party should be patient and give him time to get the work done. In 18 months, the shadow cabinet (not just the party leader) should come out with all guns blazing, announcing substantive policies which differentiate Conservative from Labour, especially contrasting ‘upward’ social mobility with Labour’s which is ‘downwards’.

The team of Blair at the front being persuasive, despite the war, and Brown behind him getting on with social engineering, has worked well for Labour. The electorate has repeatedly bought the goods without being too concerned with their true value because it has liked the feel-good advertisements, although they’re wearing thin, now, and because the only other shop worth considering seemed to have nothing in stock. (People only use the third shop when they’re cross with the other two.) The Conservative shop should stock up with high quality goods, *then* put up a big ‘Open For Business’ sign. In that order, without being rushed into premature announcements by political journalists who are easily bored and need copy. Meanwhile, a sign saying ‘Under new management’ will have to do.

A major challenge to the Tories’ electability is Brown’s packed vote (of an extra 800,000) on the public payroll, neatly engineered under the banner of ‘improving public services’ which is, unfortunately for the Conservatives, valid up to a point. Floating voters have been lulled into a vague sense that things are more or less moving in the right direction. Talk of stealth taxes has not convinced, because Brown has been stealthy enough to get away with it. Voters will only respond to policies convincing enough to attract them out of this rut, but that means solid work under the new management before advertising the particulars of the new goods.

[Rob G]

Richard: you say Unless of course Cameron's agenda regarding the voluntary sector is covertly aimed at shrinking the welfare state and therefore the tax burden. I think Cameron is open - not covert - about expecting the increase in effective action by the voluntary sector to lead to a reduction in the welfare state. But he is presenting the improvements in education and family life and the reductions in drug, alcohol & debt dependency as being right in themselves, and not just the means to an economic end.

To quote from his recent speech to the Centre for Social Justice "You cannot have a smaller state unless you have bigger, more responsible people.
Growing levels of social breakdown are creating growing demands for welfare and other forms of government intervention.
Limited government is impossible without renewing the forms of behaviour and social structure that prevent poverty and create community".

[Richard]

"That's true in the sense of not being a traditionalist. But then Margaret Thatcher wasn't much of a conservative in that case either."

At least Thatcher wasn't a republican.

[James Hellyer]

You cannot have a smaller state unless you have bigger, more responsible people.

Which is why he believes in ministers controlling things and setting the agenda. No contradiction there.