Sunday polls give 'Cameron's Conservatives' the lead

Two opinion polls give David Cameron a lead tomorrow.  ICM for The Sunday Telegraph gives 'Cameron's Conservatives' a 2% lead.  YouGov for The Sunday Times gives the Tories a 1% lead.  The opinion polls are discussed on YouGov's Polling Blog.  ICM finds that the Tory leads widens slightly to 3% if Gordon Brown was leader.  This contradicts the evidence of previous polling which has suggested that Labour would do better with Brown than Blair.  This may ease the pressure on Blair from within his parliamentary party and cause some Labour strategists to scratch their heads...

Labour will not be too worried by these polls at this stage, however.  The surveys follow a period when the Conservatives in general and David Cameron, in particular, have enjoyed extensive and unusually favourable coverage.  Nonetheless Francis Maude welcomed the polls: "We seem to be at the dawn of a new era. There is much work still to be done, but this is a great start."  So much for Tory politicians not commenting on polls!

The most worrying findings for Labour come in the detail of YouGov's polling.  UK Polling Blog:

"YouGov’s polls have consistently found that the overwhelming majority of people thought that Gordon Brown was doing a good job as Chancellor - his approval ratings have been consistently high - normally around +30 and, at the end of last year and earlier this year, +40 and +41. YouGov’s poll this week - conducted just after his announcement that his earlier growth figures were wrong - has Brown’s net approval rating down to only +4."

Comments

[James Maskell]

The polls are great but as Tim rightfully said, this is the bounce factor. What will the polls say in perhaps 2 months time? Not only that but for the Conservative Party to really be ahead in terms of "If a General Election is called tomorrow...", it needs to be ahead in the polls some 6-7% at least.

[Wat Tyler]

For all of us- even those of us who didn’t support DC for leader- this is a week to remember. Now two- maybe three- polls all showing a Tory lead, and all carrying the same unambiguous message.

As Matthew Parris said this morning, the Force is with Cameron’s Conservatives. It’s one of those historic tell-your-grandchildren turning points…what we’re looking at right here and now is the end of Labour’s 13 year hegemony.

Yes, many of us do still have concerns about policy, and there are doubtless many struggles ahead. But this all feels very different to what we've been used to.

So crack open another bottle of that Bulgarian Claret and… rejoice, rejoice.

[Ed R]

A delightful start -- but it's still all to play for.

The EPP business is going to the first landmine issue for Cameron. It's important to do for reasons that he's put forward, but anything linking the Tories to Europe is a bed of thorns. Luckily, time may be on Cameron's side here: if the withdrawal happens over Christmas, it's fairly unlikely to generate too much of a fuss. This would be the best outcome really.

The other potential problem is the long lead time until the policy review groups reporting back. Cameron is right not to want "eye-catching initiatives" for the news papers, but the policy review groups need to be public enough that things are seen to be happening. And the ministers need to find a way of handing journalists who may want to say that any criticism of other parties' policies without offering a clear alternative up front is just the party "having its cake and eating it". Cameron shouldn't be rushed: but he needs to find some way to give the impression of momentum in policy development too. May 2007 is a long way away.

Let's not fool ourselves: these numbers need to be much higher if we're going to be serious contenders next election, and the hard work of pushing those numbers up will kick in after the initial honeymoon bump. But it's good news so far, and from what I can see, Cameron deserves that good news. Winning the leadership was a good start, of course, but since then he:
- Proved his mettle in the chamber by taming Blair.
- Set out a clear agenda for policy development using many of the party's talents, and addressing areas like the environment and social justice which haven't been associated with the party previously.
- Hired a strong (if somewhat cautious) Shadow Cabinet.
- Will see plans for major (if somewhat incautious) party reforms.
- Has rejuvenated the Conservatives' media image, and conveyed the optimism he's talked about.

Long way to go yet, but all things considered, that's a pretty jam-packed first four days. Roll on the next four years.

[Derek]

It's good news, but let's not get carried away. This lead is soft, based on the unusual positive press coverage we have been receiving, but it will give our members a much needed boost for Christmas. There is a very long way to go. Governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them!

[Cllr Iain Lindley]

Labour actually do better percentage-wise with Brown according to that poll, however it looks like the effect of a Brown leadership is to bring Tory and Labour voters who are flirting with the Liberal Democrats back into their original folds - to our (slight) advantage.

[Martin Smith]

"however it looks like the effect of a Brown leadership is to bring Tory and Labour voters who are flirting with the Liberal Democrats back into their original folds"

Maybe...although the Con+Lab+Lib sum vote actually goes up from 93 to 95 with Brown in. Where's this coming from? I'd guess UKIP or something. Those 3 Lib Dem points are probably all going to Labour as leftwingers go back to Brown, with 1 further Labour point (as centrists desert Labour) and 2 UKIP points to the Tories.

UKIP voters coming back on board to the Tories just to make sure Labour and Brown lose, whereas with Blair they don't care between Labour or the Tories and are more likely just to vote on Europe.

It's a theory anyway.

[Anthony]

"Where's this coming from? I'd guess UKIP or something."

It's more likely to come from Don't Knows - a lot of the differences in polls asking how you'd vote with different leaders are normally people moving in and out of "don't know".

[Ed R]

I'd think the nationalist parties have more clout than UKIP. A perceived "proper" Labour party might draw support from these. In this case, that shift might be masking a greater shift from Labour to the Conservatives. But the numbers are too soft to be able to say much at all for certain.

[Graham]

Which ever way you look at it, we're ahead in the polls. We havnt been ahead in the opinion polls for over a decade!

If ever a tory leader (of the past 3 failed ones) needed a kick start week to propell them into No.10, they wouldnt of minded taking this one.

I think the point taken from these polls (because its so early) is the optimism generated by Cameron, and that people really want Cameron and all of us in the party, to do better...

[Graham]

Which ever way you look at it, we're ahead in the polls. We havnt been ahead in the opinion polls for over a decade!

If ever a tory leader (of the past 3 failed ones) needed a kick start week to propell them into No.10, they wouldnt of minded taking this one.

I think the point taken from these polls (because its so early) is the optimism generated by Cameron, and that people really want Cameron and all of us in the party to do better. The people are ready for us to do better...

[James Maskell]

This is the honeymoon period, nothing more. Lets not get ahead of ourselves here. Lets be realistic. This feeling wont last forever.

[Jaz]

"This is the honeymoon period, nothing more. Lets not get ahead of ourselves here. Lets be realistic. This feeling wont last forever."

Well atleast it shows the party has the potential of overtaking labour in the polls without any serious happening in current affairs to influence the poll. (like petrol prices etc).

The idea is that Cameron MUST get close to this result nearer to the general election and a lot more to win.

[Dave J]

"We havnt been ahead in the opinion polls for over a decade!"

How quickly people forget the petrol drivers thing: the Tories got a big temporary bounce out of that that vanished within weeks.

That said, this is surely a more significant turning point. Not the end of Labour, of course, but at least the beginning of the end of Blair's suspension of "politics as usual."

[Clare Lewis]

Good news, however we do need momentum to get it up to 40% and keep it there. People are fickle but we need to capture their imaginations. Personally, even though I am female, I don't think this centralising approach to candidate selectionis a good thing at all. We should allow constituencies the right to choose their candidate. We forget it is he members of the constituency who will be delivering leaflets and knocking doors for this individual. Females will be selected if they are good enough (or even if they aren't, eg. Anne Main, Maria Millar and Anne Milton - the latter especially). We need more Widdecombes, Spelmans and Laits, it is policy that will attract them, not gimmicks.

[Cllr Iain Lindley]

Even during the fuel protests we didn't hit 40% - the highest was 38% from MORI - and given that the polls in 1992 backed a Labour victory, it must be 15 years at least since two concurrent polls gave us a lead.

[Frank Young]

It's all very encouraging, I think though we need to be wary of falling into an opposition-ist mindset. Cameron should very much see himself as a "shadow" prime minster leading an alternative government. Leave Labour to squabble amongst themselves and lok increasingly out of touch while we focus on solving many of the great problems that beset this country.

[howard Stevenson]

I feels good to be a Tory again!
Its the news we wanted, and I should say expected. The media do currently love Cameron.
He produced a shadow cabinet of all the talents. Found work for Clarke and IDS to do.

He got the press talking about woman PPCs in positive light, an issue he his using to show the party is changing. The same as talking about the environment and the inspired first event in London, where a group of disadvantaged black children say how great he came across.

That all been said, the hardwork starts here. We are the ones who will have to sell the message/policies on the doorstep. We need some of those before the May council elections.

[Richard]

These polls are indeed good news. What is more interesting is the Cameron/Brown poll which pus us on 40%! These polls are nothing but bad news for the Lib Dems who in two are on 18%!

Yes the EPP-ED issue will be tricky, but we are doing it for the right reasons and the mood of the people right across Europe is with us. Leaving the EPP-ED may be the start of us forming a genuine Conservative foreign policy with the interests of Britain at its core.

[Andrew]

I would say those results look rather more encouraging than one would first think. Although in May we needed a 6% or 7% lead over Labour to merely result in a hung parliament, today's situation is different.

The Liberal Democrats have took a direct hit from David Cameron's appeal for Liberals to come aboard with us.

Furthermore, the issues David has addressed are mostly issues young Liberal Democrat voters would be concerned with, such as social justice in the third world, and the environment.

The Labour vote will be maimed when the vote on the Education Act takes place, and it only passes thanks to Conservative support.

That will secure a few percentage swing from Labour to us, and that will be enough to secure our lead, and secure the next election.

[Jon White]

Andrew, so why are we supporting it. Please remind me. I was under the impression that we were the opposition.

[John Hustings]

"Andrew, so why are we supporting it. Please remind me. I was under the impression that we were the opposition."

Some say that if the bill passes, but only because of Conservative support, that that will hurt the government more than the bill failing.

I am very dubious about this idea, personally.