ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

The most eligible bachelor in politics gets married today

ConservativeHome sends warm congratulations to Liam Fox and Dr Jesmee Baird, who get married today.

Meet David Cameron – a modern, progressive, liberal, mainstream Conservative

David Cameron visited Hereford today and issued a ‘join Cameron’s Conservatives’ appeal to the LibDems in order to “together build a modern, progressive, liberal, mainstream opposition to Labour”..  Here are the points he used to dress up the invitation:

1. Cameron’s Conservatives are representative: “I’ve taken decisive steps to change the face of the Conservative Party.  To end the scandal of women’s under-representation, and to increase the number of MPs from black and minority ethnic backgrounds and with disabilities.”

2. Cameron’s Conservatives are reasonable: “I’ve shown how we will be a consistent and constructive opposition.  We will back the Government when they do the right thing.”

3. Cameron’s Conservatives are compassionate.  I’ve set up a Policy Group “to tackle entrenched problems like persistent poverty, family breakdown, lack of aspiration and drug addiction.”

4. Cameron’s Conservatives are green: “John Gummer and Zac Goldsmith will lead a Policy Group looking at how to achieve strong but sustainable economic growth... they will think radically about issues like transport, energy, housing and the urban environment.”

5. Cameron’s Conservatives are modern: “We’re going to be totally open and transparent.  Everything the Policy Groups do will be published online.”

6. Cameron’s Conservatives are localists: “So I say to Liberal Democrats everywhere: we, like you, are on the side of the local community, and want to give local people more power and control…over how their services are run…their neighbourhoods are policed…and their priorities are delivered.”

7. Cameron’s Conservatives are civil libertarians: “Labour’s style of government shows how little they trust people, and how reluctant they are to share responsibility.  The spinning, the centralising, the partisan point-scoring, the desire to control and bully.  All this is anathema to liberals everywhere.  As is Labour’s cavalier attitude to our most basic British values and democratic rights, like freedom of speech and due process of law.  Labour are casual about civil liberties at a time when it’s vital they’re upheld, to show strength and resolution against those who threaten our way of life.”

8. Cameron’s Conservatives think the Iraq war is an issue of the past: “My Party and the Liberal Democrats were on different sides of that argument.  But I say to Liberal Democrats everywhere: we’re on the same side now.  We want to see the same things happen as quickly as possible: democracy established… security guaranteed… and our troops coming home, as quickly as possible.”

Simon Hughes MP, President of the embattled Liberal Democrats, hit back at Mr Cameron by claiming that the Tories had "changed their salesman" but not "their product".  Mr Hughes is more of a red book Liberal, than an Orange Book modernizer.

Mr Cameron is surely right to face up to the challenge posted by the LibDems.  It is very difficult to see the Conservatives forming a parliamentary majority without either ousting a number of LibDem MPs or forming partnerships with them.  But what was his his key aim in this Hereford speech?  Was it to attract LibDem voters to a blue rosette with yellow and green edges?  Or is he beginning to soften Orange Book LibDem MPs to the possibility of defecting to – or coalescing with – a more “acceptable” Conservative Party?

And – the biggest question of all – where does this leave Conservatives who…

…reject the tomato environmentalism of Kyoto?
…who support Labour on homeland security?
…who think Iraq is but one stage of a war on terror that LibDems have no stomach for?
…and who oppose the quota politics at the heart of David Cameron’s A List?

The And Theory is David Cameron’s best way of keeping the Conservative Coalition together.  The danger is that only one half of the And Theory was on show in Hereford today.

Merkel intervenes in EPP row

The UK Presidency didn’t even begin well.  Its flying birds logo seemed to be a rip-off of the Bruges Group’s logo.  That small PR failure was an omen of the much bigger problems that have followed.

Goran Persson, the Swedish Prime Minister, has suggested that there is only a 50% chance of the Brussels summit agreeing to Tony Blair’s EU budget proposals.  William Hague was on Radio 4 this morning criticising Tony Blair’s failure to defend the British rebate – famously won by Mrs Thatcher at Fontainebleau in 1984.  Mr Hague recollected how Tony Blair had begun the EU Presidency with a commitment not to trade the rebate unless there was reform of the Common Agricultural Policy.  No such reform has been forthcoming since Jacques Chirac used Bastille Day to bizarrely declare that the cash-guzzling Common Agricultural Policy was the future.  President Chirac’s intransigence hasn’t stopped Mr Blair trading the EU rebate, however.

Radio 4’s Jim Naughtie used the interview with Mr Hague to press him on Angela Merkel’s letter to David Cameron about the EPP.  Mrs Merkel had used a letter to the new Tory leader, congratulating him on his election, to pointedly warn him about his plans to quit the European People’s Party.  In her letter, she wrote: "I look forward to good and intensive co-operation with you, and in particular within the framework of the EPP-ED.”  The Europhile Independent also reports that Mr Cameron has caused further upset within Europe’s centre-right parties: “Yesterday, Mr Cameron kept his distance from centre-right leaders by staying away from their traditional meeting before the summit of EU countries in Brussels. Instead, he visited Belfast, which went down badly at the Brussels meeting.”

William Hague said that there would be no retreat from Mr Cameron’s position on the EPP.  It was right, he said, to adopt a principled position and then argue for it.  That was how Mrs Thatcher had won the rebate in 1984 and it was how the Conservatives would proceed under David Cameron’s leadership.  The delay in executing Mr Cameron’s EPP exit is causing increasing frustration amongst Eurosceptics.  They are increasingly concerned to see Ken Clarke, Douglas Hurd, Caroline Jackson and now the Chancellor of Germany being allowed to pick at an open wound.

A twelve point rebuttal of the case for staying in the EPP has been written for The Platform Blog by Dr Lee Rotherham.

Charles Kennedy's ratings slide

Today’s YouGov poll for The Daily Telegraph gives the Conservative Party a 2% lead over Labour – confirming YouGov’s weekend poll for The Sunday Times.  A 5% gain for the Conservatives since May’s General Election has entirely been at the Liberal Democrats’ expense.

The YouGov poll finds more bad news for Charles Kennedy.  Only 11% now think that he would make the best Prime Minister.  That’s down from 18% in May.  Mr Cameron is level-pegging with Mr Blair.  Each has the support of 30% of voters as the best PM.

Charles Kennedy received some support from Ming Campbell on this morning’s Today programme.  Mr Kennedy’s Deputy said that the Liberal Democrats were at their best when Mr Kennedy was in full flight.  He did imply that Mr Kennedy had not been firing on many cylinders recently, however.  Sir Ming said that he would certainly consider standing for the LibDem leadership if a vacancy emerged.  LibDem Home Affairs spokesman Mark Oaten used an interview in The Telegraph to say that he wanted to be leader but that he would not challenge Mr Kennedy.

Mr Cameron will speak in Hereford later today.  He will invite Liberal Democrats to join his modern compassionate Conservative Party and its new emphasis on social justice and environmentalism.  ConservativeHome will digest the speech later.

The Telegraph’s YouGov poll shows that Mr Cameron’s honeymoon is much more modest than that enjoyed by Tony Blair in 1994.  Mr Blair enjoyed a 70% over 10% advantage on “caring”, for example.  Mr Cameron’s advantage is only 32% over 12% because of a much greater number of ‘don’t knows’.  Mr Blair was regarded as decisive by a margin of 60% over 15%.  Mr Cameron’s advantage is only 36% over 10%.  Unlike previous Tory leaders, however, Mr Cameron’s ratings are consistently positive.

Where's Ming?

I've just listened to Radio 4's World at One bulletin and heard another half-hearted endorsement of Charles Kennedy from a LibDem MP.  Susan Kramer MP clearly sees her leader as on probation.  On this morning's Today programme Simon Hughes hesitated before agreeing that Mr Kennedy would fight the next election as LibDem leader.

The big fear for Mr Kennedy, however, is that his deputy Menzies Campbell has finally lost patience with his laziness.  Yesterday 'Ming' would only say:

“I have had a very long and profitable relationship with the leader of the party.”

"Had"?  "Had"!  Mr Campbell has been unavailable for comment today.  Is he planning to challenge Mr Kennedy?  Wat Tyler is keeping the blogging community up-to-speed with his Runners & Riders site.

Cameron and Majorism

David Cameron gave a speech yesterday in which he attempted to distance himself from the economic and political legacy of Black Wednesday (an event in which he played a backroom role - see the photo on the right from today's Times).

David Cameron's connections with the Major years are worth some scrutiny.  As ConservativeHome's review of the leadership contest suggested - Mr Cameron was elected, like John Major, with the votes of The Right.  IDS, Redwood, Howarth, Hayes and Fox were among the leading right-wingers who declared for him.  The right soon became disappointed with Major and there must be a danger that the same happens with David Cameron.

A post on the new Spectator blog gives such cause for concern.  The Spectator's headline is a bit colourful - "Top Cameron Aide [Nicholas Boles] Tells Right - Drop Dead" - but there is something in the story.  Mr Boles, who is a close aide of Cameron, is reported as telling a meeting of right-wing think tanks that they would be disappointed by Mr Cameron if they expected him to depart from the moderate, modern compassionate conservatism of his leadership bid.  "If you’re hoping for tax cuts, school choice and a tough line on the EU – forget it," is The Speccie Online Team's interpretation.  It continues:

"Whereas Labour is gearing up to claim that Cameron is secretly a hard core Thatcherite who is using clever spin to shield an extreme agenda, it seems more likely that the truth is Cameron is what he seems – a traditional Conservative who does not think there is much wrong with Britain, and will resemble Macmillan and Major, not Thatcher, albeit with better PR. Gove is useful bait to attract some elements on the Right, but the ideological tone will be set by Edward Llewellyn, his new Chief of Staff and former Chief of Staff to Patten."

The Speccie's choice of language appears unfair to Mr Boles but there are some significant similarities with the Cameron approach and Majorism:

• The managerial approach to public service reform - emphasising rigour and standards, rather than choice.
• A cautious approach to tax and support for big spending increases.
• The adoption of long-term policy reviews/ commissions.
• Kyoto environmentalism (personified by the return of John Gummer).
• A cautious approach to localism (marked by the appointment of the centralising Ken Clarke to run the "Democracy TaskForce").

There are, of course, differences between Cameron and Major.  Cameron is more charismatic, for example.  John Redwood is part of DC's team - albeit in the semi-detached Economic Competitiveness Policy Group.  Nonetheless the comparison is worthy of further study... and vigilance.

Greening and Shapps appointed to CCHQ

CCHQ has just announced that the following individuals have been appointed as Vice Chairmen of the Conservative Party:

• Justine Greening MP (Youth)
• Margot James (Women) - pictured
• Grant Shapps MP (Campaigning)
• Sayeeda Warsi (Cities)

Announcing the appointments David Cameron said: “We are serious about building up an organisation that is not only world class at political campaigning but continues our outreach to cities, young people and women.  These appointments draw upon a range of talents from both inside and outside the Parliamentary Party that will deliver a Conservative organisation based on an agenda of hope, optimism and change.”

Angela Browning MP (Organisation & Campaigning), Bernard Jenkin MP (Candidates) and Eric Pickles MP (Local Government) had already been appointed as Deputy Chairmen.

Conservative councils (still) cost you less... and provide better services

The Audit Commission's annual assessment of the quality of services provided by local councils provides great material for the next Conservative local elections campaign.  As reported in this morning's Times:

"Four out of five of Britain’s Ivy League of local councils are Tory-controlled, with Wandsworth remaining the party’s flagship council.  The Audit Commission’s annual league of town hall tables show that the Tories dominate at the top with Kensington & Chelsea, Kent, Shropshire and Wandsworth all gaining four stars each.  The two worst performers are the Isles of Scilly, under independent control, and North East Lincolnshire, under no overall control. Three of the six worst councils include two Labour-controlled districts, Sandwell and Hackney, and the Labour-led Hull."

An early Christmas gift for David Burrowes MP

It seems that Stephen Twigg's chances of retaking his old Enfield Southgate seat have suffered a bit of a hiccup... David Burrowes should have a drink to celebrate - but it shouldn't be too big!

Can Norman Lamont's adviser move the Tory Party past Black Wednesday?

“Six hundred and ninety Wednesdays ago, my Party lost its reputation for economic competence.  I was there that day, working in the Treasury.  You may have seen the TV footage.  The events leading up to that day were bad for our economy, disastrous for our Party, but most important of all… made life really difficult for the millions of families who faced high interest rates, negative equity, and repossessions.  No matter that the policy was backed by the CBI and by Gordon Brown and the Labour Party.  That was thirteen years ago.  We’ve learned our lesson.  I will never let that happen again."

Cameron proposes a triple lock to transform the Tories' economic reputation:

• "Independent setting of interest rates by the Bank of England.  He will announce that he will never allow political interference to tarnish Bank of England Independence and that he will not hand over the Bank of England's power to set interest rates to the ECB.
• Independent assessment of fiscal rules.  There will be an independent panel to judge the Golden Rule.
• Independent statistics.  The Office for National Statistics will be given independence."

Download THE FULL SPEECH.pdf

Cameron taunts Blair on his education reforms

Party leaders' topics:  David Cameron raised education and free trade for the developing world.  Charles Kennedy raised extraordinary rendition.

Best joke: At the last election the LibDems pursued their "decapitation strategy" - an unsuccessful strategy to remove the party's leading figures - Oliver Letwin, Theresa May and David Davis.  David Cameron noted that LibDem MPs had a new target for decapitation - Charles Kennedy.

Best line: "White Paper or White Flag?".  David Cameron's question to Tony Blair about whether he'll dilute his education reforms in order to appease his backbenchers or whether he'll keep his reforms intact with the help of Tory votes.

Best behaved person of the day: Hilary Armstrong Labour's chief whip.  After being admonished last week by Mr Cameron for her childish behaviour she was as good as gold.

Biggest cheer of the day: Tory and Labour benches for Charles Kennedy as the embattled LibDem leader rose to his feet.  CK's performance was lacklustre.

Best putdown of the day: Tony Blair to Vincent Cable.  The anti-American party's Treasury spokesman raised the issue of human rights abuses in the US.  Tony Blair defended the USA - although he said that he opposed California's capital punishment regime - but asked why people liked Mr Cable never raised real abuses - like those in North Korea.

Missed topic of the day: Charles Kennedy and a Labour backbencher raised the issue of extraordinary rendition but it was only the PM who talked about Iraq's historic elections.  The green benches are as lopsided in their choice of topics as the Today programme.

Do we want Kennedy to stay or go?

ConservativeHome discussed Charles Kennedy's leadership problems last Thursday and they are now all over the newspapers.  'LibDem Revolt Puts Kennedy On Brink' is how today's tabloid Times puts it on its frontpage.  This is an encouraging time to be a Tory with our leadership issue settled it is our opponents that look uncertain.  The other parties are disunited with Gordon Brown's ratings falling and Charles Kennedy's shadow cabinet in increasingly open rebellion.

An excellent 'political briefing' by Peter Riddell in The Times notes the main reasons for Charles Kennedy's troubles:

• Below-expectations performance at May's elections when the Iraq war presented the party with breakthrough opportunities.
• The arrival of David Cameron.  The LibDems can no longer rely on easy pickings from a weak Tory party.
• "The new [Times/ Populus] poll shows a big drop since September, from 74 to 52 per cent, in the number believing that the party has a strong team of leaders, and from 71 to 53 per cent in the number saying that it is united."
• Growing doubts about Mr Kennedy's hunger and energy.

Mr Kennedy remains popular with many voters and tends to perform well at election time but his party is now unhappy with his lack of focus in the mid-term.  The party's Orange Book young turks would probably like Kennedy to go but they fear that the big-state Simon Hughes (54) would be chosen as his replacement by the grassroots members.  Menzies Campbell (64) might be an alternative safe pair of hands.  Mark Oaten (41) would probably be the Orange Book Liberals' ideal candidate today although they might be better waiting for Nick Clegg to put his name forward in four years' time.  He really does have Cameron-like star quality.

Kennedy staying wouldn't be a bad option for the Tories given all of the reasons stated above.  The best option would be a Hughes leadership as he would undoubtedly take the party leftwards and scare heartland England voters.  The election of an Oaten-like figure might present possibilities, too, however.  The Hughes faction would find such a leadership difficult to swallow and the LibDem coalition might fracture.  The intelligent and statesmanlike image of Menzies Campbell - although, perhaps, a little old - is the interim leader that could present us with the greatest challenge.

David Cameron's different tactical approaches to the EPP and candidates questions

IDS has a letter in today's Times supporting David Cameron on the EPP.  The former Tory leader writes:

"David Cameron won a strong mandate with the clear aim to break with the EPP. He should be allowed to get on with it. The same voices tell us to lead in Europe. I can think of no better way to start than creating a non-federalist centre-right grouping."

Mr Duncan Smith's argument was boosted with a suggestion that Czech centre-right MEPs might also quit the EPP if Tories show the way.

Mr Duncan Smith's intervention will be of mixed value to David Cameron, however.  He probably wishes the issue would go away.  Today was the third day in a row that quitting the EPP was discussed by John Humphrys et al on the Today programme.  Ken Clarke, of course, intervened at the weekend.  Douglas Hurd yesterday.  Caroline Jackson MEP is complaining in an op-ed piece in The Times today.  The decision of Messrs Cameron and Hague to hold months-long consultation on this issue may only cause the debate's protagonists to dig themselves ever deeper into their trenches.

Mr Cameron has certainly acted decisively on candidates.  If his leadership campaign's promise on EPP is subject to consultation there is no such consultation on the candidates' A-list (which featured less prominently in his campaign).  MEPs get consultation.  Marginal seats get an A-list.  The differing approaches have their strengths and weaknesses.  The imposition of the A-list hasn't stopped Simon Heffer and Matthew d'Ancona debating the idea's merits on the pages of today's Telegraph.  A quick decision on the EPP might have meant David Cameron would not have enjoyed a victory honeymoon.  These are difficult tactical decisions but there is no doubt that consultation has been chosen on the question of the EPP and imposition in the case of the A-list.

Website troubles

Not content with denying Liam Fox the job of Shadow Foreign Secretary, the Conservative Party website has now dropped Liam Fox from his position of Shadow Defence Secretary.  See this on Recess Monkey.

At least conservatives.com is still live.  As Guido noted earlier - Labour's site is one of the casualties of the Hemel Hempstead explosion: "Welcome to the Labour Party website. The normal site is temporarily unavailable following an explosion at Buncefield oil depot in Hemel Hempstead on Sunday 11 December.  Part of the offices of our hosting company were extensively damaged, resulting in the loss of our site."  I've just visited now and it's still not back.  Pathetic.

On the subject of Hemel, local MP Mike Penning has been brilliant on the media.  Calm.  Informed.  Concerned for his constituents.  A great performance and much better than Caroline Spelman's confrontational and flustered response on yesterday's Newsnight.

Is Cameron's support for Blair beginning to work?

Cameron's bipartisanship on Labour's education reforms looks very worthy on the surface but there is an underlying politics to it.  In last week's New Statesman Martin Bright captured that politics very well:

"Cameron's tactic, in smothering the government with support, is to make Blair's divorce from his own party permanent."   

The tactic may already be bearing fruit... The Guardian reports signs of a growing rebellion on Labour benches against Tony Blair's education reforms.  Greater freedom on admissions policy is provoking the ire of former Education Secretaries Estelle Morris and, significantly, David Blunkett.  Blunkett may be playing a double game - acting as a rebel when he's really getting into the rebel camp for Tony Blair.  Anyway - it's all looking very interesting...

Green and Gove are highlights of latest appointments

The shadow cabinet are meeting in Birmingham today as part of David Cameron's efforts to present the Conservative Party as a party for the whole nation.  It would be good to hear from readers in the Midlands about the nature of TV/ radio/ newspaper coverage that this gesture receives.

In the meantime Mr Cameron has announced more appointments.

Stand-out appointments for me include:

• Damian Green to immigration.  Damian was a Davis supporter and as a former Shadow Education Secretary before he fell out with Michael Howard he might have hoped for a litte more.  Nonetheless he's a Kent MP and will have a good understanding of how immigration and asylum affects Britain.  He also has the one nation, moderate tone that Mr Cameron probably wants brought to the issue.


• A few new MPs get big promotions -
  
  • Michael Gove to housing;
  • Maria Miller to education;
  • Mark Harper to defence;
  • Jeremy Hunt to the disabilities portfolio;
  • Tobias Ellwood to the Whips' office.

Fleet Street is going to be much poorer for David Cameron's reshuffle.  William Hague left his News of the World perch because of his appointment as Shadow Foreign Secretary.  Boris Johnson resigned as Editor of The Spectator.  Will Michael Gove lose his Times column?  He'll certainly still be welcome as a ConservativeHome blogger...

ADDITIONAL FRONTBENCH APPOINTMENTS...

Your opinions are being noticed

Yesterday we reported the fact that only 35% of members of ConservativeHome.com's Members Panel supported David Cameron's 'A-list' plans.  The Today programme, Times and Independent all reported that fact yesterday.  The Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph and FT have all reported your opinion today.

If you want to join the Panel and help this site to promote the views of Tory members - to the outside world and to the party leadership - please take the December survey that is still online.

Cameron would enjoy 6% lead over Brown

A Populus poll for The Times gives Labour a 3% lead over the Conservatives.  Labour is on 38%, Conservatives on 35% and the Liberal Democrats on 19%.  Since last Tuesday's election of David Cameron we have seen two polls give the Tories a lead and this and a BPIX poll give Labour the lead.  In all cases the parties are very close.  Reflecting on the difference between Populus and YouGov and ICM Peter Riddell writes:

"The Populus poll was carried out between Friday and Sunday, later than the other two, so the immediate euphoria may have worn off."

Mr Cameron has boosted the Tories by about 3%.  Riddell: "This was half the jump in Labour’s rating in summer 1994 when Tony Blair became leader, although his party was already between 10 and 20 points ahead in the polls."

The poll's most interesting finding is that David Cameron would open up a 41%-35% lead if Labour was led by Gordon Brown.  ICM also found that Labour's position would deteriorate under Brown and YouGov found Brown's approval ratings falling fast.

Populus found that Labour still enjoys a 55% to 40% advantage when it comes to "would do a good job of managing the economy".

The previous Populus poll was controversially given front page treatment by The Times.  It gave David Davis a lead amongst Tory voters but only included 122 respondents.

David Cameron's five point action plan on candidates...

This is on conservatives.com:

"Improving candidate selection: David Cameron's 5-point positive action plan

1. Freeze on all candidate selections while a new system that guarantees diversity, fairness and meritocracy is put in place.

2. Priority list of candidates drawn up for target and Conservative-held seats, comprising the brightest and best candidates, with equal numbers of men and women and a significant proportion of black and ethnic minority candidates, and candidates with disabilities.

3. Full progress check review after three months, and in the unlikely event that further action is required, it will be taken.

4. Intensive programme of headhunting and mentoring to attract the brightest and best women and ethnic minorities to apply to become candidates.

5. Community involvement in candidate selection, either through community panels evaluating candidates, or through primaries."

3.30pm update: Link to full text of David Cameron's speech.

Members prefer local to A-List candidates

In a radical statement of his determination to change the look of the Conservative parliamentary party David Cameron will make a speech in Leeds today in which he will set out plans to introduce active discrimination in favour of women candidates.

An 'A' list of candidates will be compiled for use after next year's local elections and it appears that it will include at least 50% women.  Candidate selection will be frozen until then.  ConservativeHome believes that the formation of this 'A' list should not be a closed process and we are compiling our own member-driven GoldList.  The process is already underway with the nomination of Zac Goldsmith.  If you have a nomination please email [email protected].

CCHQ's A-list will be targeted on associations in the most marginal constituencies but these associations will be permitted to choose local candidates in "exceptional" circumstances.  Although the list will not be compulsory Party Chairman Francis Maude did say, however, that David Cameron would expect associations to choose from the list. 

People who are not currently Conservative members will be recruited for the list.  Mr Cameron will also use his speech to say that he is open to associations choosing candidates by open primaries or by allowing registered Conservative voters - not just paid-up members - to choose parliamentary candidates.  As soon as the speech is delivered it will be posted in full on this site.

The ConservativeHome.com Members' Panel - which accurately predicted last week's leadership election result - suggests that members are unenthusiastic about the Cameron-Maude plans:

Featured on this morning's Today programme and in a number of national newspapers the Panel finds that there is much more support for local candidates than a Gold List "that would include more women, more people from minorities and more people from non-traditional Tory backgrounds".

44% of members would also like to see financial help for lower income candidates.  This idea has not featured in advance press coverage of Mr Cameron's speech but may help ensure the party achieves more than a face-deep diversity.   A bursary scheme could ensure that more people from the charitable sector and the public services become Tory candidates.   Many of these candidates would likely be women and it would be consistent with the party's deepening commitment to social justice.

The ConservativeHome Members' Panel also suggests that there is very little support for more co-operation with the Liberal Democrats - of the kind modelled by Oliver Letwin.

You can join the ConservativeHome.com Members Panel by completing the existing survey - which is still online here.

Tory poll progress puts pressure on Charles Kennedy

ConservativeHome has already reported two polls that give 'Cameron's Conservatives' narrow leads over Labour.  Another poll from BPIX for the Mail on Sunday (not online) gives Labour a 38% to 37% lead but that 1% lead advantage contrasts with an 8% lead from just two months ago.

The Tory advance isn't just worrying Labour.  It is piling pressure on to Charles Kennedy - as predicted by ConservativeHome last Thursday.  Thursday's post noted how the LibDems "always appealed to voters because they themselves have appeared moderate, reasonable, consensual and compassionate" but that "David Cameron is now claiming all of those qualities for his own leadership".  Mr Kennedy has been forced to dismiss suggestions that he is to stand down as Liberal Democrat leader next year as "total and absolute nonsense".  Peter Oborne has accused the LibDems of being "in a state of inanition".  The now politically inactive Mr Kennedy is said to be physically exhausted.

The MoS/ BPIX survey found that David Cameron's pregnant wife, Samantha, was more popular than Mrs Blair.  34% thought Samantha Cameron was the best model for Number Ten's 'first lady'.  Only 21% chose Cherie Blair as the best role model.  By 38% to 31% BPIX's 2,087 respondents preferred the idea of dinner with the Camerons to the prospect of eating with the Blairs.

Ken Clarke urges retention of EPP membership

David Cameron's commitment to take Tory MEPs out of the European Peoples' Party was one of the few bankable commitments of his leadership bid.  Earlier this week the new Shadow Foreign Secretary, William Hague, said that the commitment would be honoured but Ken Clarke has used an interview with BBC1's Politics Show to protest against the move.  Mr Clarke is close to many of the Tory Party's MEPs - two-thirds of whom are said to oppose Mr Cameron's policy.

The former Chancellor of the Exchequer attempted to reposition himself as less of a Europhile during his ill-fated leadership bid but he told BBC1 that he thought Mr Cameron's EPP policy was not wise.  It is a "head-banging" policy, he said, and warned Mr Cameron that he was in danger of looking more extreme on Europe than any of his predecessors.  Mr Clarke is worried that, outside of the EPP, Tories could have no choice but to ally themselves with the European Parliament's ultra-right.

Mr Cameron must have hoped that getting Mr Clarke to join his big tent by getting him to chair the Democracy Taskforce would meet Lyndon Johnson's "better to have him inside the tent pissing out, then outside pissing in" maxim.  Mr Clarke has found a way to be inside the tent and still urinate at his leader's policy.

Mr Letwin, also on the Politics Show, attempted to play down the importance of the policy.  Mr Letwin said that voters were much more interested in issues like climate change and social justice - two of the six challenges that his policy groups will investigate over the next eighteen months.  Mr Letwin did insist, however, that Mr Cameron would deliver on his EPP commitment.

Cameron has promised Davis not to downgrade ecstasy

When Rosie Boycott was its editor the Independent on Sunday ran a high profile campaign for the decriminalisation of cannabis.  It is ironic that it is the IoS that, this morning, should break the news that Tony Blair plans to upgrade the status of cannabis from C to B following new evidence that there is a "definitive link between use of the drug and mental illness":

"A Danish study published in the British Journal of Psychiatry found that almost half of patients treated for a cannabis-related mental disorder went on to develop a schizophrenic illness. People who had used the drug developed schizophrenia earlier than those with the illness who had not smoked marijuana."

Mr Cameron's views on drugs were one of the controversies of his leadership campaign but Ned Temko, in today's Observer, reports the outcome of a meeting between Davids Davis and Cameron from last Monday:

"The two men met privately in Cameron's office. Not only was Davis assured he could keep his job as shadow home secretary, Cameron even agreed to his rival's request to shelve plans to downgrade the classification of the drug ecstasy."

In agreeing with Mr Davis on this issue Mr Cameron has avoided a potentially very disruptive row.  He is also starting to fulfil his hustings promise to decide drugs policy by collective shadow cabinet agreement.  Mr Davis was a strong opponent of Mr Blunkett's 2003 decision to downgrade cannabis and he will pressurise Mr Cameron to support Tony Blair's upgrading of the drug.  Without that support the Tories will face the kind of attacks that The Sun aimed at the LibDems during the last election.  Soft on drugs and soft on terror could otherwise become a major weapon in Labour's currently uncertain attempts to curtail the Cameron honeymoon.

Sunday polls give 'Cameron's Conservatives' the lead

Two opinion polls give David Cameron a lead tomorrow.  ICM for The Sunday Telegraph gives 'Cameron's Conservatives' a 2% lead.  YouGov for The Sunday Times gives the Tories a 1% lead.  The opinion polls are discussed on YouGov's Polling Blog.  ICM finds that the Tory leads widens slightly to 3% if Gordon Brown was leader.  This contradicts the evidence of previous polling which has suggested that Labour would do better with Brown than Blair.  This may ease the pressure on Blair from within his parliamentary party and cause some Labour strategists to scratch their heads...

Labour will not be too worried by these polls at this stage, however.  The surveys follow a period when the Conservatives in general and David Cameron, in particular, have enjoyed extensive and unusually favourable coverage.  Nonetheless Francis Maude welcomed the polls: "We seem to be at the dawn of a new era. There is much work still to be done, but this is a great start."  So much for Tory politicians not commenting on polls!

The most worrying findings for Labour come in the detail of YouGov's polling.  UK Polling Blog:

"YouGov’s polls have consistently found that the overwhelming majority of people thought that Gordon Brown was doing a good job as Chancellor - his approval ratings have been consistently high - normally around +30 and, at the end of last year and earlier this year, +40 and +41. YouGov’s poll this week - conducted just after his announcement that his earlier growth figures were wrong - has Brown’s net approval rating down to only +4."

Is British politics at a turning point?

Peter Oborne (a candidate for Boris Johnson's vacated post?) concludes a very interesting article in this week's Spectator with these words:

"David Cameron has become Tory leader at an extraordinary moment, with Tony Blair’s Labour and Charles Kennedy’s Lib Dems not far from falling apart. Suddenly, in a very startling turn of events, the Conservatives are the only united party in British politics."

Mr Oborne lists four main reasons why British politics may be at a breaking point:

• Britain is now near the bottom of the world growth league.  Gordon Brown's taxes and regulations have finally caught up with him.  The economic feel-good factor may no longer be on Labour's side.  As IDS has warned, however, a bad economy doesn't necessarily help the opposition if Labour - like John Major in 1992 - can convince voters to 'hold on to nurse for fear of something worse'.
• The collapse in Tony Blair's standing.  TB has dominated politics for a decade.  He has confused the Conservative Party at every turn.  His reign is now over.  Oborne puts it brilliantly: "Blair remains at the centre of the political landscape, but as an almost irrelevant figure.  He is simultaneously present and absent, a most curious state of affairs."
• Eurosceptic victory.  Acceptance that the euro and EU constitution are not going to happen any time soon closes the faultline that has so injured the Conservative Party for the same Blair-dominated decade.  Oborne: "The defeat of the federal dream in the French and Dutch referendums earlier this year seems to have brought this bitter and rotten period of Conservative politics to an end. In a healing moment, Hurd and (I hope) Patten will both come back into the Tory centre under David Cameron as significant members of his outer circle of advisers."  Some of us - who don't share Oborne's views on Iraq - are not so keen!
• LibDem stasis.  As noted on this site on Thursday, Cameron's moderation and consensual approach poses a big threat to the LibDems.  Oborne suggests that the LibDems are "in a state of inanition" (a new word for me).  Charles Kennedy appears unable or unwilling to reconcile his party's very different factions and the result is zero coherence on strategy and policy: "There are some senior Liberal Democrats who seem to advocate an old-fashioned corporate state and whose most articulate spokesman is Simon Hughes. Meanwhile there is a rising generation of buzzing, technocratic reformers. Neither faction has much, if any, respect for Charles Kennedy. Both factions yearn for a more dynamic leader. But there is no agreement on a replacement; quite the contrary. The Right of the Liberal Democrats greatly fear that disposing of Kennedy would simply have the undesired result of installing Simon Hughes... Many of the recent very damaging leaks about apparently improper Lib Dem financial dealings are thought to have come from within. It is a miracle that this comic state of affairs has not so far been brought to wider public attention."