It is not only David Cameron that will be celebrating this morning. YouGov also predicted the result very accurately.
As ConservativeHome noted on Saturday - YouGov predicted a 67% to 33% victory. The actual result was 68% to 32%. YouGov also predicted 2001's IDS-Clarke race accurately. The good news for this site is that our 69% to 31% prediction was also highly accurate.
'Our' 69% to 31% prediction comes from the new ConservativeDemocracy.com website that you can access here. By taking the survey on that site you can join the Conservative Members' Panel. That monthly Panel and survey will be an essential part of this website's mission. ConservativeHome.com successfully championed members' right to a vote in the leadership election and we aim to continue to be a site run by members for members. The Panel will be a way of ensuring the new leadership is kept in touch with members' concerns on issues of policy, candidate selection and party reform.
More results of the latest Panel Survey will be revealed soon but as Mr Cameron makes final touches to his shadow cabinet we thought he might like to know what you think should be done with David Davis...
The Panel was asked: "What should happen to David Davis under a David Cameron leadership?"
767 members had answered by 2pm yesterday afternoon:
- 23% said that he should become Deputy Leader
- 31% wanted him to remain Home Secretary
- 8% thought that Mr Davis should be demoted to a lesser role
- 2% think he should be sacked
- 34% said that it was a decision for David Cameron to decide.
The only problem I can see with leaving DD where he is, is the problem of where to put Fox if Hague takes over as foreign secretary.
Posted by: Chris | December 07, 2005 at 07:48
There is plenty of work to be done - I'd hope there is room for all the talent pool to be put to good use.
Posted by: Jonathan Sheppard | December 07, 2005 at 07:56
Congratulations on the survey result. A double victory for internet polling. The question now is why even bother with any other kind of polling? Either the results are way off the truth or subject to so many adjustments that the result is whatever the polling organisation wants it to be (i.e. not too far away from whatever YouGov is predicting).
Posted by: Peter Franklin | December 07, 2005 at 09:28
I can't see DD staying at the top table. It looks pretty clear that Osborne, Hague and Fox will take the top three posts when it really should be Davis, Hague and Fox. If he is offered Defence (presumably withouth the deputy leadership) I hope he accepts but I wouldn't be surprised, or blame him, for resturning to the backbenches.
Posted by: Richard Allen | December 07, 2005 at 09:30
In that other leadership election taking place yesterday, Timothy Kirkhope was re-elected leader of the Tory MEP delegation in Brussels he won with two thirds of the vote. Kirkhope was the pro staying in the EPP-ED candidate and he won convincingly, it will be interesting to see if Cameron does anything about our membership of the EPP-ED. If he does he will have a huge fight on his hands, if he does not then there will be a lot of very angry Euro-sceptic MEPs and MPs, many of whom only voted for Cameron because he pladged to withdraw the Tories from the EPP-ED.
Posted by: Richard | December 07, 2005 at 09:40
Yes Richard you're right.This will be the first test of Camerons leadership.I don't think he will flunk it and fully expect Tim Kirkhope and his friends will soon learn that they will have to do what Cameron (and most of our party) want.
Posted by: malcolm | December 07, 2005 at 09:49
For the first time in ages the biggest problem a Conservative leader has is there are too many good people for the Shadow Cabinet, and not too little. Nothing is being said about David Willetts, what will happen to him? He's too important to waste on the backbenches.
Posted by: Welshtory | December 07, 2005 at 10:00
So the majority of voters want Davis promoted or kept in place...
Posted by: James Hellyer | December 07, 2005 at 10:44
According to Nick Robinson on Today this am, it's definitely Osborne, Hague, and DD...unclear what he's going to do with Fox, although the Times reckons Defence and the Deputy Leadership.
Posted by: Wat Tyler | December 07, 2005 at 10:54
Lord Kalms was on the Today programme arguing that Davis should be given a very senior post.
Posted by: James Hellyer | December 07, 2005 at 11:13
Editor,
Where can we find the full results of the surveys?
Posted by: Disraeli | December 07, 2005 at 16:19
Hey, welcome back Disreali.It's been so long since you posted I was beginning to think you were dead!
Posted by: malcolm | December 07, 2005 at 16:23
Nope - just watching the contest from beyond the blog. Very pleased with the result and pleased that the Conservative Party will be led again from the moderate centre.
This 'Tory Diary' looks to be an impressive new feature.
Posted by: Disraeli | December 07, 2005 at 17:36
I did not personally believe the polls showing that the Tory Party's members have fallen into a swoon about this man who blatantly despised most of their opinions.
Well, I've learned from that experience. The conservative party is even more decrepit, deluded and desperate than I had imagined.
Posted by: JRT | December 07, 2005 at 23:44
err i keep getting an error when trying to skip to da next article
Would you be interested in exchanging site roll
Posted by: banana boat | July 24, 2010 at 01:04