The voters give their verdict on the economy: The Coalition is rubbish but Labour would be even worse

By Tim Montgomerie
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The latest YouGov survey for The Sun (PDF) confirms that the public have a very low view of the political class and its ability to lead Britain out of the economic mess.

Taking the bad news for the Tories and the Coalition first...

• 35% think the Coalition is doing a good job of managing the economy. 58% think it's doing a bad job.
• Only 24% think George Osborne is doing a good job. 53% think he's doing a bad job. That's not as bad as in June, however. Only 15% thought he was doing a good job then.
• 25% think the cuts are being made fairly. 61% do not.
• 45% think the economy is still getting worse. 34% think the deterioration has stopped but there are no signs of recovery.

Continue reading "The voters give their verdict on the economy: The Coalition is rubbish but Labour would be even worse" »

Labour 9% ahead of the Conservatives. Cameron 8% ahead of Miliband. Lord Ashcroft's new mega poll of 8,000 voters.

By Tim Montgomerie
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Labour has a 41% to 32% overall lead in Lord Ashcroft's latest mega opinion poll of more than 8,000 voters but Cameron has a 48% to 40% lead over Ed Miliband when the respondents were asked who would make the best PM.

Those are the headline findings of a poll rich in detail. Entitled 'Project Red Alert' Lord Ashcroft writes about the strategic dilemma facing Ed Miliband on this morning's Comment pages:

"He can either make clear to his supporters that there will be no return to the days of lavish spending, or he can fight an election knowing that most voters do not believe Labour have learned their lessons, and that many of his potential voters fear Labour would once again borrow and spend more than the country can afford."

But there is also plenty for the Tories to benefit from in this huge survey. Over on LeftWatch I've listed five big weak points in Labour's electoral position.

Here are ten other key findings from the report:

(1) Voters prefer idea of Red-led government to Blue-led government... 56% would like to see Labour in power in some form and only 44% would like to see the Conservatives in office (on their own or in coalition with the Lib Dems).

(2) ...despite the fact that more than half of voters say Labour can't be trusted with power again! More than half of voters 52% surveyed by Lord Ashcroft say "Labour have not yet learned the right lessons from what went wrong during their time in government, and cannot yet be trusted to run the country again". 48% think Labour have learnt the right lessons from their defeat (35%) or didn't have any lessons to learn (13%).

(3) Cameron still ahead on prime ministerial qualities... On six measures of prime ministerial qualities (representing Britain in international negotiations, making unpopular but necessary decisions, clarity of agenda, ability to lead a team and overall skills) David Cameron beats Ed Miliband. The Labour leader has a 63% to 37% advantage in the one area of understanding ordinary people.

(4) Overall, Ed Miliband remains a substantial drag on his party's fortunes: 40% feel more favourable to Labour than to Ed Miliband and just 9% feel more favourable to Ed Miliband than to Labour.

(5) ...But Labour brand stronger than Tory brand: 49% think Labour is the party that most wants to help ordinary people get on in life compared to just 24% thinking the same of the Conservatives (or the Liberal Democrats). 39% think the Labour Party is "on the side of ordinary people" compared to 27% who think that of the Conservative Party. On only one quality are the Conservatives ahead - "willing to take tough decisions for the long term" - by 48% to 28%.

(6) Tories still more trusted on the economy but only narrowly: By 53% to 47% Cameron and Osborne are preferred over Miliband and Balls "to manage the economy in the best interests of Britain".

(7) The two parties appear to be level-pegging when it comes to competence... 30% of voters see Labour as "competent and capable" - exactly the same as for the Conservatives.

(8) ...But voters thing nearly everything would have been worse if Labour had been in power. Asked if they thought key areas of national performance would have been better or worse if Labour had been in power over recent years, rather than the Coalition, voters think things would have been worse in most key areas of public policy:

• Britain's overall level of debt: -32% (49% of voters think the debt level would have been worse and only 17% think it would have been better if Labour had been in charge)
• The problem of some people living on benefits when they are able to work: -30% (47% over 17%)
• Managing immigration into Britain: -25% (43% over 18%)
• Overall state of economy: -19% (45% over 26%)
• Britain's overall reputation in the world: -17% (37% over 20%)
• The crime rate: -11% (29% over 18%)
• Unemployment rate: -4% (35% over 31%)
• Public services like the NHS: +12% (26% over 38%)
• Impact of public spending cuts: +14% (28% over 42%).

(9) The Liberal Democrats' numbers are dreadful throughout the poll. Lord Ashcroft is one of the people least willing to write off Clegg's party. Only yesterday, in his much-reported memo to Lynton Crosby, "people in Lib Dem-held constituencies are much more likely to say they will stay with the party". Nonetheless the poll pours cold water on any idea that the Lib Dems have won serious economic credibility from joining the Coalition government. One question, in particular, stands out. 46% say the Tories have the best overall approach to dealing with the economy. The Labour number is 42%. The Lib Dems are way down on just 12%.

(10) Boris Johnson is the politician that voters feel most positively towards. On a scale of zero to ten (where zero equals most negative and ten is most positive) David Cameron scored 4.69 compared to 4.55 for the Labour leader. Boris at 5.99 was the only politician named who got more than halfway up the scale with more voters feeling, on the whole, positively towards him than felt negatively. William Hague came second with a 4.94 average ranking.

The poll was conducted nearly one month ago - between 17th and 28th October but its headline finding of a 9% lead matches today's daily YouGov tracker poll.

Go to Lord Ashcroft polls for more detail.

A quarter of Tory voters would be open to voting for UKIP

By Matthew Barrett
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A new poll by ComRes for the Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday released tonight shows how a significant minority of Tory voters would be prepared to lend their vote to UKIP.

The ComRes question was:

"Which, if any, of these parties would you seriously consider voting for at a General Election if it were held tomorrow?"

The poll found that 26% of Tory voters would "seriously consider" voting for UKIP. Other findings in the poll confirmed Britain's and - the Tory grassroots' - Eurosceptic stance. Britons want a cut in our contributions to Europe, they think we should leave if we don't get powers back, and so on. The openness of Tories voting for UKIP is probably the most important finding, however - especially as David Cameron heads off to the latest European budget summit next week. Downing Street's plans to build a Conservative majority in 2015 become a lot harder if even just a part of that 26% decide not to vote Tory.

At a ConservativeHome event on Monday, David Davis MP is expected to warn the party leadership that a failure to address the European issue could be a gift to Nigel Farage and his party.

Headline voting intention figures for the poll are Lab 43 / Con 31 / Lib 10. This 12-point lead is the highest Labour have enjoyed in a ComRes poll since March 2005.

A measly 5% of Britons would vote for an anti-state party and it's time for all Tories to drop the libertarian language

By Tim Montgomerie
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Last month ConHome asked YouGov to ask people which of three visions of a society they were most attracted to. The exact question was:

"Which of the three following visions of society most appeals to you? Even if none describe exactly the society you would like, please say which one comes closest to your ideal?"

• Nearly a quarter (24%) chose what might be called a socialist vision of the good society - which in the survey we defined as "A society where government plays a big role in society, taking a large role in running the economy and people’s lives and directing jobs, welfare and housing to create a good society".
• A measly 5% chose a libertarian brave new world - which our question described as "a society where individuals are almost completely free of both government control and assistance, and rely entirely on themselves, their families and job creators to make a good society".
• The top option was a mixed economy - chosen by 61% of respondents: "A society where government plays a limited role in society, providing services and a safety net in hard times but where we largely rely on families, education and job creators to create a good society".

No doubt some libertarians would say I mischaracterised their position and perhaps I have. Perhaps a slight change in the way in which the question was posed would have increased that 5% to 6, 7, 8 or even 10%! I would urge readers not to quibble pointlessly with the specifics of the question, however, but ponder on the broad implications of the results. Voters aren't anti-State. Most voters (95% in this poll) want some role for government. When Conservatives are constantly bashing government it puts middle-of-the-road, moderate people off and it frightens people who depend upon government help for part or all of their income - or who, may be wholly independent today, but who wouldn't want the safety-net dismantled.

Continue reading "A measly 5% of Britons would vote for an anti-state party and it's time for all Tories to drop the libertarian language" »

14% of voters can remember hearing about imaginary Labour MP Audrey Cockburn using union funds to redecorate her home

By Tim Montgomerie
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Earlier today I noted that 41% of Britons couldn't spontaneously identify one single political event from recent weeks.

The finding came from a Lord Ashcroft poll that asked another slice of voters to look through a list of political events and say whether they'd heard a great deal, a bit or nothing of certain events*. Click on the table below to more clearly see the results...

Voters might not be being honest but it is encouraging - on the face of it - that they do regard economic growth, new measures against burglars and capping rail fares as much more important than whether, for example, Cameron accidentally left one of his children behind in a pub.

The findings I most love though is the fact that 14% of voters remembered imaginary Labour MP Audrey Cockburn using union campaign funds to redecorate her home and 11% recalled hearing about married Tory MP David Williams having a gay affair. Perhaps the story fits what many voters expect of MPs?

> Read Lord Ashcroft's commentary on his poll.

* The exact question was: "Below is a list of political stories that you may have heard about in the last few weeks or months. Some of these are true, and some are invented. We would like to know whether you have heard about each one. For each story please indicate whether you have heard a great deal, a bit, or nothing at all about this. If you have not heard about a story please be honest and say so – this is not a general knowledge test. // Please say how important you think each story is on a 0-10 scale, where 0 means “not important at all” and 10 means “extremely important”."

41% of voters can't remember a single political event from recent weeks or months

By Tim Montgomerie
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For those of us who spend way too much time immersed in the world of politics here's an interesting poll that Lord Ashcroft has just completed.

Nearly 1,700 adults were asked to write down any political events or stories that they could remember from the last few weeks or months. 41% couldn't suggest anything at all. All they could offer was the equivalent of a completely blank look. The Word Cloud above summarises the results in graphic form. Only two events were named by more than 10% of people: Andrew Mitchell's encounter with the Downing Street police and George Osborne's upgrade to a first class ticket. The numbers able to spontaneously mention any other political event were all below 10%.

Only 8% were, for example, able to mention the Scottish referendum.

7% could spontaneously mention child benefit cuts.

6% mentioned David Cameron's energy policy remarks.

5% mentioned the recovery in GDP.

4% mentioned the party conference season.

3% mentioned the pressure for an EU referendum.

2% mentioned the badger cull.

1% mentioned the Cabinet reshuffle.

Continue reading "41% of voters can't remember a single political event from recent weeks or months" »

69% of voters see Tories as divided as Cameron is urged to hold EU referendum (only 35% see Labour as divided)

By Tim Montgomerie
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ComRes has completed a survey for the People's Pledge campaign in David Cameron's own Oxfordshire constituency of Witney. These are the findings:

• 64% of all Witney voters want an EU referendum;
• 68% of Conservative voters want an EU referendum;
• 30% of all voters would seriously consider voting for another party if it offered an EU referendum;
• 29% of Conservative voters would seriously consider voting for another party if it offered an EU referendum;
• 47% of voters in David Cameron’s own constituency think it unlikely that he will hold a referendum on the EU if he wins the next General Election;
• 35% of Conservative voters in Witney think it unlikely that he will hold a referendum on the EU if he wins the next General Election; 53% of Conservative voters think there is no point in a referendum which doesn’t offer In/Out.

The poll - seized on by The Sun - will undoubtedly be used to increase the pressure on David Cameron to promise a referendum before too long. In today's Mail on Sunday James Forsyth writes that the PM will give a major speech on Europe before Christmas but what will he say that can satisfy both the sceptics in his own party but without frightening Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats? I'm not even sure that he can deliver a message that can satisfy his whole party.

Continue reading "69% of voters see Tories as divided as Cameron is urged to hold EU referendum (only 35% see Labour as divided)" »

Thatcher seen as most competent of living Prime Ministers and Brixton's John Major as least out of touch

By Tim Montgomerie
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The latest YouGov poll for The Sunday Times not only suggests that Labour's lead may be narrowing it also asked questions about all five living PMs. It found that Margaret Thatcher was seen as the most competent and Gordon Brown as the most incompetent. Tony Blair was seen as the most in touch and John Major as the least out of touch. The results are summarised in the table below - please follow the colours ---

It's hard to judge Cameron at this stage of his time at Number 10. If the economy recovers over the next few years and he embeds the Gove and IDS reforms his numbers will improve substantially.

> The original numbers can be found in this PDF.

No sign that Labour is extending its opinion poll lead BUT the Cameron-Miliband gap is closing

By Tim Montgomerie
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Over the last 24 hours we've had four opinion polls:

• TNS-BRMB: Lab 44%, Con 30%, LibDem 8%, UKIP 7% = LABOUR LEAD OF 14%
• YouGov for The Sun: Lab 45%, Con 32%, LibDem 8%, UKIP 8% = LABOUR LEAD OF 13%
• ICM for The Guardian: Lab 41%, Con 33%, LibDem 14%, UKIP 5% = LABOUR LEAD OF 8%
• Populus for The Times (£): Lab 40%, Con 35%, LibDem 9%, No UKIP figure = LABOUR LEAD OF 5%

The real comfort for Conservatives in the underlying data is that Cameron and Osborne remain more trusted on the economy than Miliband and Balls (except very marginally in the latest YouGov poll, see below). Their advantage has narrowed but as The Guardian points out, voters have moved to the don't know column rather than to Labour. Those believing that Balls and Miliband are best placed to run the economy has also actually fallen in the ICM/Guardian survey. Tories hope that if they can stay ahead of Labour on economic competence during a double dip recession then they can widen their economic advantage if an economic recovery narrative takes hold.

Continue reading "No sign that Labour is extending its opinion poll lead BUT the Cameron-Miliband gap is closing" »

How much government help do "strivers" want... and how much do they want government out of their way?

By Tim Montgomerie
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Lord Ashcroft's latest mega poll has been published this morning. He writes about it on our Comment pages - People need to hear that Conservatives will help them to succeed and won't leave them on their own.

There has been a lot of talk about blue collar voters recently - not least on ConHome. Michael's new polling attempts to understand who they are and what motivates and worries them. Crucially he tries to distinguish between their expectations of government. Some expect a lot of help from government and these voters, unsurprisingly, lean heavily towards Labour. Those who are more ambitious for themselves - and perhaps a little more able - are less keen on government assistance and want to be left uninhibited so that they can fulfil their aspirations. This group leans towards the Conservatives. A group of voters in the middle will decide the next election. Lord Ashcroft calls them the suspicious strivers. They are caught between wanting to be allowed to get on and being anxious about whether it's possible anymore. They wonder if the system is now stacked against them and if the link between effort and reward has broken down. Additionally they wonder whether the government will be there to help them if they face tough times or if the whole government is now unfairly configured to look after the very dependent and the already secure and well-connected.

Conservatives need to think carefully about these findings. The socially mobile are vital job creators and innovators but 'setting people free' and 'extending opportunity' can only be one (big) part of our message. We must also be the party that stands with the little guy and offers him and her all the help they need to get or stay on their own feet. We also need to be concerned that we are seen as the party of the pensioner who has already made it rather than the young person who is looking for work.

Continue reading "How much government help do "strivers" want... and how much do they want government out of their way?" »