Conservative Diary

Opinion polls

9 Mar 2013 10:24:30

Tories could gain 17 seats from the Liberal Democrats but risk losing many, many more marginal seats to Labour

By Tim Montgomerie
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Lord Ashcroft's latest mega poll focuses on the country's 213 more marginal seats. It involves 19,000 interviews and is one of his biggest ever polls. It doesn't find much cheer for Conservatives. If its findings were replicated at a general election the Tories would lose a net 75 seats and Labour would gain 109. This would give Ed Miliband a majority of 84 - a big majority but not the 114 suggested by national opinion polls that also survey safer, non-battleground seats.

Shapps Grant April 12The survey suggests that, despite Eastleigh, Grant Shapps is right to target Lib Dem-held seats so heavily. Lord Ashcroft finds a 5% swing from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives. If this was replicated at a general election this would see about seventeen seats change from yellow to blue. That would include Eastleigh because, as voters told Lord Ashcroft last week, many would vote differently in a general election where much more is seen to be at stake than in a by-election which they use to protest.

The poll does find some good news for the Prime Minister. Lord Ashcroft writes that "across the Battlegrounds the Conservatives’ biggest asset remains David Cameron, who leads as best Prime Minister everywhere except the Lib Dem-Labour Battleground, and having the clearest vision of where they want to take the country". The poll also finds that the Tories lead on the economy in every battleground except the Lib Dem-Labour contests.

Continue reading "Tories could gain 17 seats from the Liberal Democrats but risk losing many, many more marginal seats to Labour " »

4 Mar 2013 17:44:25

More signs that David Cameron’s EU promises aren’t quite connecting

By Peter Hoskin
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Here’s an opinion poll that is worth pondering. It’s from Ipsos MORI, and it asks a single, simple question: ‘Which party do you think has the best policies on Europe – the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, UKIP or some other party?’

So, who came out on top? The Conservatives, after David Cameron’s promise of an EU referendum and the budgetary gains he made in Brussels? Ukip, with Nigel Farage soaring high across the airwaves? Nope, neither. Here’s your answer:

Continue reading "More signs that David Cameron’s EU promises aren’t quite connecting" »

19 Feb 2013 08:33:10

50 per cent of Conservatives support the legal regulation or decriminalisation of cannabis – now where’s that review?

By Peter Hoskin
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The Daily Mail has written up a new opinion poll on drugs policy, conducted by Ipsos MORI. “Just one in seven want drugs laws liberalised and majority say possession should remain criminal offence,” reads their headline – and it’s true. Looking at the full results, only 14 per cent of respondents think that “the law in the UK should be changed so that the possession of small quantities of illegal drugs is decriminalised.” (Although a further 21 per cent support limited trials of such a measure). 60 per cent think there should be no change to the law at all.

But the poll contains other findings that the Mail’s headline doesn’t capture. Turns out, 53 per cent of people support either the legal regulation of cannabis or the decriminalisation of possessing it. And that includes 50 per cent of those respondents who intend to vote Conservative at the next election. It also includes, as it happens, 46 per cent of Daily Mail readers.

Continue reading "50 per cent of Conservatives support the legal regulation or decriminalisation of cannabis – now where’s that review?" »

16 Feb 2013 19:57:14

Labour lead down to 5% in new ComRes poll

By Harry Phibbs
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There is a new ComRes poll out for the Independent on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror. It shows Labour 36%, Conservatives 31%, UKIP 14% and Lib Dems 8%. The previous poll had a 6% Labour lead. However the methodology has changed helping the smaller parties. Apparently that would account for the notional drop of a point in the Labour lead.

However Labour will be disappointed not to do better as the previous poll was just after the announcement of the in/out EU referendum. Of course  the polls are all over the place at the moment. But at this stage Labour should be expecting consistent double digit leads, shouldn't they.

UKIP will be delighted to be clearly ahead of the Lib Dems who are down from 10% last time.

On the economy Labour have fallen back:

I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy

Agree 27% (+2) Disagree 51% (-4) Net agree -24% (+6)

I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about
the economy.

Agree 20% (-1) Disagree 55% (+3) Net agree -35% (-4)

1 Feb 2013 08:15:43

Can Tories turn 2015 into a Cameron versus Miliband presidential contest?

By Tim Montgomerie
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Lord Ashcroft has written about his new poll of more than 2,000 voters here.

He argues that the Europe speech has cheered up the Conservatives - "this is not to be sneezed at" - but has not changed voters' perceptions of our party. The latest YouGov survey certainly suggests the boost we received at the weekend may be fading. It puts Labour 12% ahead. This may be because of the lack of potency of the Europe issue - it may be the economic growth gloom - but it may also partly reflect a failure of the Tory machine. There has been no viral or substantial campaign to follow up on Cameron's speech. One Cabinet minister told me that the Tory Party should have used the last seven days to nail every inch of Ed Miliband into a position where he was defined by his opposition to a referendum. The minister also wondered why Conservative HQ hadn't launched a vivid way of communicating that Cameron is absolutely determined to deliver on his referendum pledge. There is no imagination, they complained. We are seeing the same lack of follow-through that was absent after last October's party conference. A good speech is delivered but where is the campaign to do the other 90% of the selling?

On a day when The Guardian splashes with more speculation against David Cameron's leadership (you'd almost think the newspaper had an agenda!) Lord Ashcroft's poll also suggests that the Cameron v Miliband brand is a much better framing of the next election - as far as Conservatives are concerned - than a Tory v Labour framing.

The table below compares the Conservative and Labour identities:

Screen Shot 2013-02-01 at 07.59.40

Continue reading "Can Tories turn 2015 into a Cameron versus Miliband presidential contest?" »

26 Jan 2013 19:29:41

ComRes is third pollster to give narrow lead to Out campaign... but "In" set for big win if PM can claim successful renegotiation

By Tim Montgomerie
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Sunday morning update: The ComRes poll's topline finding that Labour's lead was down to 6% has been echoed in other polls. Four Sunday newspaper polls all have Labour's lead below 10%.

  • In YouGov's survey for The Sunday Times (£) the Conservatives were up 5% to 33% and UKIP were down 4% to 10%. Labour's overall lead was just 6%. Very poor for this mid-term stage of a parliament.
  • In a Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday the Tories were up 2% and UKIP were down 2%. Modest but in line with the other polls suggesting something of a trend.
  • Angus Reid for The Sunday Express found a 3% increase in Tory support but also a warning to Cameron to shift focus to the economy.

THE TEXT BELOW WAS POSTED AT 7.30PM LAST NIGHT...

EU EXIT SIGN

For what it's worth - at this very early stage of the In/Out campaign - ComRes becomes the third pollster to record the state of public opinion towards Britain's membership of the EU.

  • ComRes (for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror) finds that 43% agree with the statement that "if a referendum were held on Britain’s membership of the EU, I would vote for Britain to leave the EU". 33% disagree.
  • In yesterday's Times (£) Populus found that 40% would leave the EU and 37% would stay. 23% are yet to make up their mind. Unless the No campaign begins to persuade those DKs then they will vote for the status quo if precedent holds.
  • YouGov had a similar percentage as Populus. 40% would vote to leave. 38% would vote to stay.

Continue reading "ComRes is third pollster to give narrow lead to Out campaign... but "In" set for big win if PM can claim successful renegotiation" »

12 Jan 2013 20:32:47

New poll says UKIP could beat Tories into third place in 2014's European Elections

By Tim Montgomerie
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A ComRes poll for tomorrow's People is another sign that the Eurosceptic, centre right vote is becoming worryingly divided. ComRes give the following vote shares for next year's European elections (I've put the gain on last time's results in brackets)...

  • Labour - 35% (+19%)
  • UKIP - 23% (+6%)
  • Conservative - 22% (-6%)
  • Liberal Democrat - 8% (-5%)
  • Green - 5% (-3%)
  • SNP - 4% (+2%)
  • BNP - 2% (-4%)*
  • Plaid Cymru - 1%  (more or less unchanged)

BAb79p2CAAA9dYs.jpg-largeWe know, of course, that UKIP won't get anything like 23% in the following year's general election but the Tory challenge is to get UKIP down to something close to the 3% that they won in 2010 or they'll be the difference between Conservatives holding seats and losing them. All of the evidence suggests that UKIP is taking many more votes from the Conservative Party than Labour. While Europe isn't the only or even the top issue of concern to UKIP voters it is the party's fundamental purpose. Unless Cameron commits to an In/Out vote in his looming speech I can't see how we are going to begin to cap the Farage phenomenon. If tmrw's Mail on Sunday is a clue to Cameron's mood (see right) I'm not sure he's in the right place to tackle UKIP. It may be why George Osborne might be positioning himself to be the sceptic to Cameron's enthusiast.

* The only good news in those figures is that, as expected, Britain should no longer be sending left-wing racists to the European Parliament.

20 Dec 2012 08:21:50

Polls show support for George Osborne’s 1 per cent cap on benefits

By Peter Hoskin
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Oh look, the Welfare Uprating Bill is published today. That’s the Bill which formalises the Government’s plan to increase many benefits by only 1 per cent a year, rather than by the rate of inflation. It’s the Bill which has given us what will surely be one of the defining dividing lines of this Parliament, as well as of the next election.

Which probably helps explain why today’s papers feature not one but two polls examining the Bill’s provisions. Let’s start with the more eye-catching of the pair.

The Populus poll commissioned by the Conservatives, and written up in the Sun, is wholly encouraging for the Government. The tenor of it is captured by its opening question. Respondents are asked to say which of two propositions is closer to their own views. The first is broadly the Tories’ approach:

Continue reading "Polls show support for George Osborne’s 1 per cent cap on benefits" »

18 Dec 2012 06:18:08

UKIP is a magnet for unhappy Tory voters but it's much, much more than Europe that's driving the dissatisfaction

By Tim Montgomerie
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Nigel eating cakes2

The man who spends more on opinion polling than all of the three biggest political parties combined has conducted another landscape survey. This time more than 20,000 people were interviewed last month in order to assess the strength, composition and nature of UKIP's rise. Lord Ashcroft writes about his poll on our Comment pages but in this post I summarise seven of the main findings as I see them.

Continue reading "UKIP is a magnet for unhappy Tory voters but it's much, much more than Europe that's driving the dissatisfaction" »

15 Dec 2012 20:10:42

Economy and same-sex marriage send UKIP soaring to 14% - its highest-ever ComRes rating

Screen shot 2012-12-15 at 19.56.50
By Paul Goodman

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The figures for the Independent on Sunday are:

Conservative    28% (-3)
Labour             39% (-4)
UKIP                14% (+6)
Lib Dem           9% (-1)
Others             9% (+1)

Andrew Hawkins of Comres is quoted as saying:

"The Conservatives are leaking votes to UKIP – one in five (19%) of the party’s 2010 voters say that they now intend to vote UKIP. There is good evidence that many UKIP voters are erstwhile Conservatives on the rebound: large proportions are negative about David Cameron and George Osborne on the economy, and about Mr Cameron’s handling of gay marriage."

Screen shot 2012-12-15 at 20.00.04
We also have an Opinium poll for the Obsever.  The headline figures are:

Conservative 29%
Labour 39%
UKIP 14%
Liberal Democrats 8%

So we have two polls with much the same result.  The evidence to date has suggested that same-sex marriage is losing Conservative activists to UKIP but not Tory voters.  But if future surveys report the same findings that judgement will have to be revised.

Could we be seeing the start of the revenge of "the elderly of the earth"?