By Tim Montgomerie
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This morning's Times (£) reports that the No Turning Back Group of Tory MPs recently met and discussed the prospect of finding a way of bringing the Coalition to an end and some members even raised the possibility of unseating David Cameron. The Times' story comes at a time when there is frenzied speculation about Theresa May's ambitions. The Mail pours a little cold water on the idea that she might be a near time challenger for the Tory leadership but it also presents "Britain's Mrs Merkel" (© ConHome) as the "Stop Boris" candidate at some point after the next election. In The Telegraph yesterday Benedict Brogan even suggested that Mrs May and Philip Hammond were mounting some sort of joint operation. He talked of Mrs May as a future leader with Mr Hammond as her Chancellor. That suggestion followed Paul Goodman's blog in which he talked about Hammond, May and Grayling all positioning for the leadership race to come.
Continue reading "Cameron and a united Conservative Party can still do well at the next election" »
By Paul Goodman
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There's a triple significance to the post-Eastleigh interventions of the three main Conservative members of the National Union of Ministers - Philip Hammond, Theresa May, and Chris Grayling.
It may look at first glance as though Hammond's plea for savings from welfare to be found to protect his budget, and May and Grayling's interventions over the European Court of Human Rights and the Human Rights Act last weekend, have little connection, if any - but they've more in common than meets the eye.
Continue reading "The next Conservative leadership election is under way" »
From All Sunday Editions
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Panic bells were clamouring in Downing Street tonight and Conservative Campaign Headquarters was thrown into turmoil at claims that glamour-denuded, "post-political" and IPSA-impoverished backbencher J.Alfred Prufrock is poised to issue a historic challenge today to David Cameron for the Tory leadership.
Turqoise manifesto
One source close to the now Twitter-enabled MP said that he will issue his "Turquoise Manifesto" this morning, and that a list of supporters - who will be branded as "Candidate Champions" - will follow by lunchtime. An intervention at Prime Minister's Questions is planned for later this week, with letters of no-confidence in Cameron to be sent by Thursday to Graham Brady, the '22 Committe Chairman.
Prufrock himself, however, denied the claim when contacted by ConservativeHome earlier this evening and asked for his comments on the story. "This is a very naughty conversation. You are being very mischievous," he said. "I supported David Cameron to become leader. I love him and want him to be leader for the next thousand years. I am going to end this conversation." He then hung up.
"Frockheads"
However, friends of Prufrock insist that "Albert is sitting on up to 60 no-confidence letters", that over 150 Tory MPs are "signed up in blood", and that a team of secret backers, known in the lobbies as "FrockHeads", have been stalking the tearoom gathering support. "We have enough signatures to send Cameron to sleep with the fishes," one supporter said earlier today. "Alfred is poised to throw his toupee into the ring."
Prufrock's "No Change, No Chance" manifesto offers a "Five Point Plan to Save Your Seat":
Other populist manifesto features include "a real ale supermarket maximum pricing scheme".
Prufrock, who describes himself as a "a pragmatic Euro-realist sceptic", will also push for Britain to supplement its special relationship with the U.S with "a new strategic alliance with the Faroe Islands". A plan to encourage annual school visits to the Molineux Stadium has been dropped. Asked by ConservativeHome for his views on same-sex marriage, a supporter said: "His position is a stroke of political genius. He is both for it and against it."
Prufrock leads Telegraph leadership poll
A chaos-stricken Number 10 conceded earlier that it is facing defeat. "We can't think of anything unpleasant to say, because we've simply never heard of him," a senior Downing Street source admitted. But Prufrock's allies hit back: "Albern is completely unforgettable, once you can remember who he is," one said. "Dull is the new cool." Earlier yesterday, the Grummidge MP was narrowly outstripping Boris Johnson in the Daily Telegraph's Tory leadership reader poll.
Grant Shapps, the Conservative Party Chairman, claimed that "I have spoken to Aldrich, and can confirm that like all of us he is 100% behind David Cameron. There's nothing to see here: just move along, now." However, Prufrock sources claimed that in a re-enactment of the famous scene from "Spartacus", a crack team of 50 hardline "Frockheads" will stand in their places crying "I'm Prufrock!" during Wednesday's PMQs, before stripping to T-shirts bearing the slogan.
I'm Spartacus! I'm Prufrock!
Quizzied over whether their man is a "Stalking Horse" or a "Stalking Donkey", in the tradition of Sir Anthony Meyer, a Prufrock supporter described him solemnly as a "Stalking Womble". Asked if he was aware that the leadership rules no longer require a stalking horse, the supporter paused for a very long time. There is no sign that this fact has dampened the plot. Nor that it will prevent us, since we're desparate for a splash on a rainy January Sunday, from writing about it.
By Tim Montgomerie
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Some spectacularly ill-timed press speculation this morning about David Cameron's future as Tory leader. Both the Mail on Sunday and the Sunday Times (for the second week in a row) are puffing up the idea that David Cameron's leadership is in danger. They do so on the morning when Labour's lead has fallen below 10% in four Sunday newspaper opinion polls. You could say five if you count the ICM poll for last week's Guardian. If any leadership should be in trouble it should be Ed Miliband's. For reasons I won't repeat this morning, Labour has significant structural advantages but (i) Ed Miliband's personal unpopularity and (ii) his failure to detoxify his party's spendthrift image mean his party is failing to capitalise on the Coalition's not insignificant weaknesses.
The Mail on Sunday and Sunday Times (£) are suggesting that backbench Tory MP Adam Afriyie is lining up a campaign to challenge for the Tory leadership - most likely after the next election but possibly beforehand. Mr Afriyie - inevitably dubbed the "Tory Obama" - is said to have an eight strong parliamentary campaign team, which includes Cities of London and Westminster MP Mark Field. One hundred Tory MPs are reported to have been contacted to elicit whether they would back an Afriyie candidacy.
By Paul Goodman
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It is possible to imagine a Conservative Cabinet consisting only of men. Come to think of it, the present one has more male Liberal Democrat MPs than female Conservative ones.
But is it possible to imagine the present Parliamentary Party furnishing an all-women Cabinet?
I have had a go, have come up with the following, and expect no-one to agree with it (least of all women Tory MPs for whom there wasn't room).
Continue reading "An All-Women Cabinet of Conservative MPs" »
By Paul Goodman
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"Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, the third time it's enemy action" - Ian Fleming, Goldfinger.
David Cameron wants Britain to stay in the EU. Michael Gove would vote for it to come out.
Happenstance.
Mr Cameron believes that UKIP members are "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists, mostly". Mr Gove says that UKIP is a mainstream political party.
Coincidence.
When do we get the enemy action?
By Tim Montgomerie
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The charts below summarise the main findings of the latest ConHome poll of Tory grassroots members, conducted in association with The Independent and Radio 4's Westminster Hour. Some of the key findings:
Continue reading "50% of Tory members are satisfied with David Cameron. 49% are not." »
By Tim Montgomerie
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John Major was the main guest on this morning's Andrew Marr show and his interview was notable for five main things...
First, he suggested that economic recovery was probably underway. Twenty years ago Norman Lamont said that the green shoots of recovery were emerging and he was shot down for saying so. But, said Sir John, he was right. Today, he suggested, it was also probably true: "Recovery begins from the darkest moment. I am not sure but I think we have passed the darkest moment." The former PM pointed to employment and manufacturing data that suggested Britain had turned the corner, as did stock market sentiment. The recovery would be slow, he continued, but it was underway. This was Lord Bates' argument this time, last week, on ConHome.Downing street thinks the same but won't say so until there's a lot more data in. What they can't work out is whether economic recovery will lead to political recovery. Will the return of a modest feel good factor overwhelm the pain of difficult cuts?
Second, Major urged the Conservative Party to unite behind David Cameron. There is, he said, an "inevitability" about division and leadership speculation in politics. For the last thirty years the Conservative Party has been divided in different ways - first between economic wets and dries and then, in the 1990s, over Europe. “If the Conservative Party has learnt anything," Sir John told Andrew Marr, "it’s that regicide is not a good idea.” The man who benefitted from Lady Thatcher's "regicide" and went on to win the 1992 election as a result, praised the Mayor of London as an "attractive, able" politician who is "doing a supremely good job". Boris Johnson is not in parliament, however, and keeps saying he has no intention of challenging David Cameron. People talking of a leadership challenge were filling newspapers but weren't living "in the real world". The party, Sir John said, needed to remember that "disunity costs votes".
By Tim Montgomerie
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There are stories in this morning's newspapers about Boris Johnson possibly returning to parliament before 2015 and challenging Cameron. I've blogged previously about how this might happen. I've also said that there's only a 20% chance of David Cameron being ousted as Tory leader before the next election. A year ago I would have only given it a 1% chance but that was before the Coalition descended into its paralysis of the last six months. This last week, however, we've seen some early signs that this paralysis might - just might - be being overcome.
As well as the difficulties of Boris becoming an MP before 2015 - or of another alternative Tory leader emerging - there are also the huge practical obstacles inherent in a disputed contest. And the contest will certainly be disputed. SteveHiltonGuru has set out the contours of that dispute. Compared to 1990 when Margaret Thatcher was ousted - the last time the Conservatives took the enormous step of removing a sitting PM - there are two big differences:
Devil: Come on, Boris, old bean. This is your moment! Cameron is unpopular. You are popular - loved, idolised, adored: look at the Olympics. The Party knows that he won't and can't win. Just look at this morning's borrowing figures - benefit spending up, corporation tax receipts down: Osborne in crisis. Get back in the Commons now! Mount a coup! Take over, call a general election and win! Go for glory!
Boris: Ah...er...
Angel : Look, Boris, my old chumaroo, this is all a pyramid of inverted piffle. First of all, being an MP and Mayor is one thing - though are you certain you'd find a by-election that suits? - but being Leader and Mayor is quite another. There'd have to be a Mayoral by-election - in which case the media and some London Tories would round on you: adventurism, selfishness, abandoning the capital to Labour - you know the score. Or else you'd have to try both jobs at once - and get the same reaction, but on a national scale. This is madness, my friend, sheer madness.
Boris: ...Er...ah...
Devil: Bunkum and balderdash! You can find a way of fudging it! Look at the polls - the voters want you, and outside London too. If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly! Screw your courage to the sticking place!
Boris: ...Yah...um...
Angel : Hang on for a minute. Take this polls business. One solitary poll - just one - put you marginally ahead in London and the regions. But its headline finding put you level with Cameron. Another poll on the same day found you made no real difference. ConservativeHome found that 18% of respondents want you to lead the Party into the next election. 49% want...Cameron!
Boris: ...Gosh...um...
Devil: That'll change when voters get a real choice: you or Miliband. You can transform the mood and change the psychology. Infirm of purpose! Give me the daggers!
Boris: ...Er...Yikes!
Angel : It won't change. Cameron's problem isn't the current polls. It's that he's stuffed without the boundary review. He can't get seven points ahead of Labour, let alone ten points - and that's the kind of lead he needs to form a majority Government. And nor could you! You'd be taking over the wheel of the Flying Dutchman!
Boris: Cripes!...Er -
Devil: - Let's tackle that head-on. The boundary review problem will get no easier after an election. So your bird in the band is worth two in the bush. You can't afford to hang on. There may be some other strong runner by 2015, or whenever the election takes place. Hammond. Greening. An unknown! By 2015 you could be yesterday's man! They flee from me that sometimes did me seek, with naked foot stalking in my chamber...
Boris: ...Arrgghh...Urrgghh...
Angel : Go on then! Just try it - and see what happens. Do you really believe that even if you somehow find a seat, win a by-election, contrive a no-confidence vote in Cameron, and then win a leadership election that there would be no consequences? Cameron, Osborne and many others would never, ever forgive you. The party's loyalties would split asunder. Months of intense briefing of the most vile, no-holds-barred, personal kind! And he who wields the knife, etcetera: remember Heseltine!
Boris: Urrrggghhh!...Arrrggghhh!
Well, dear reader, there you have it. Those are the arguments either way. I can't help thinking the angel has the better of them.
But we're talking Boris. And with Boris, you never quite know what will happen next. He is the great exception to every rule. Indeed, I dreamed of him last night. His legs bestrid the ocean: his rear'd arm crested the world: his voice was propertied as all the tuned spheres, and that to friends; but when he meant to quail and shake the orb, he was as rattling thunder...