The police's bleak mid-winter

By Paul Goodman
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The media pendulum that swung all the way, one way, is now swinging all the way, the other - and knocking the police off their perch:

• Nick Herbert in the Observer:

"Last week on Any Questions, broadcast from a Buckinghamshire village, Jonathan Dimbleby gasped as the majority of his audience indicated they were losing trust in the police. Where once minority communities seemed alone in raising doubts, middle England has found common cause. This is not a crisis, but it is serious, and it must be addressed by police leaders. Elected police and crime commissioners must fulfil their new mandate to hold the police to account."

• Robert Harris behind the Sunday Times paywall:

"It is hard to exaggerate the gravity of this case...Elements of the police are apparently out of control. The government couldn’t withstand them. The opposition effectively acted as the parliamentary wing of the Police Federation. The media — with the honourable exception of Channel 4 — failed in its job of scrutinising the powerful. And if this can happen in the heart of Whitehall, to a senior government minister, then most assuredly it can happen to any one of us, anywhere."

• Sir Paul Stephenson, the former Met Commissioner, in the Sunday Telegraph:

"The humiliation of Theresa May, the Home Secretary, at the last Police Federation Conference springs to mind, as does the behaviour of certain factions in the Federation that have exploited the Plebgate story. Not only were these individuals wrong to adopt the tactics that they did, they were also foolish, for now it is they who are in the dock, in effect, not the man who did the swearing. Their treatment of Mitchell was injudicious and juvenile".

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Mitchell never saw the CCTV footage until after he'd resigned but David Davis insisted that he examine it

By Tim Montgomerie
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Andrew Mitchell never saw the CCTV footage of the incident at the Downing Street gates until after he had resigned as the Government’s Chief Whip. He told me this when I had lunch with him yesterday. He also told me that the whole truth of what had happened to him might never have come to light if it hadn’t been for the perseverant friendship of David Davis. I couldn’t have had a better friend, he said.

During the height of the drama that came to be known as ‘Plebgate’ the Downing Street team told Mr Mitchell that the CCTV images were not helpful in establishing the truth. The images were of too poor quality to be useful, he was told, and it was impossible to lip-read anything that either he or the police officers had said.

We now know that the CCTV tells us that the police log at the heart of the case against Andrew Mitchell was materially inaccurate. The log published by The Daily Telegraph claimed that several members of the public were stood at the Downing Street gate during the whole of the incident and were “visibly shocked”. The CCTV clearly demonstrates that only one person was present and that person passed by quickly. The CCTV footage also suggests that not enough time elapsed for all that the police officers claimed to have been said to have actually been said. The average person speaks at two to three words per second. Mr Mitchell and the police officers would have had to be speaking at three or four times normal speed for the police record to have been accurate. A half-decent barrister would easily destroy believability in this log if it was cross-examined in court.

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The PCC inquiry into #Smeargate and Mitchell must report as soon as possible

By Paul Goodman
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Yesterday evening's investigation by Michael Crick into the Andrew Mitchell affair revealed that an e-mail apparently corroborating the police logbook account of what took place didn't come from an ordinary eyewitness - as David Cameron believed when he read it.  It appears to have been sent from the home computer of a member of the Diplomatic Protection Group.  That person told Mr Crick that he didn't witness the incident and didn't send the e-mail either.  The Times (£) reported yesterday that "a member of the Diplomatic Protection Group, the unit which guards Downing Street, had been arrested on suspicion of gross misconduct".

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If Andrew Mitchell lost his career over fabrications, David Cameron should give it him back

By Paul Goodman
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The essence of the case against Andrew Mitchell is that he called police officers "plebs", and told them to "know your place" - and, furthermore, swore at them rather than in passing.  They say he did.  He says he didn't.  Voters showed more of an inclination to believe the police, whose account was recorded in a logbook, and Mr Mitchell thus eventually resigned.  Until or unless his name is cleared, therefore, he is in no position to make a Cabinet comeback - assuming that David Cameron would want this to happen - let alone resume his former post as Chief Whip under this Government.  Mr Mitchell, of course, will want his name to be cleared anyway.  He will also presumably want to return to office.  And he will rightly grasp that the cloud that hangs over his name makes it near-impossible for him to be appointed by Downing Street to almost any post at all.

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Chris Grayling confirms that he may not be able to vote against prisoner voting

By Matthew Barrett
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Chris Grayling, the Justice Secretary, appeared on the Sunday Politics programme today. His appearance mostly concerned the question of whether he would be a "tough" Justice Secretary on issues like giving out prison sentences for knife crimes and stopping mere cautions being used for serious sexual offenders.

However, the second, shorter topic of discussion was just as important: Andrew Neil asked Mr Grayling whether he would be able to vote for prisoners not to have the vote. As I wrote last month, the Government is preparing a Bill which would give the Commons the option of vote for three options on prisoner votes:

1. Votes for prisoners who've been imprisoned for four years or less
2. Votes for prisoners who've been imprisoned for six months or less
3. No votes for prisoners at all

The first two of the three options are designed to give Parliament the option to comply with rulings of the European courts, while the third gives Parliament the option of maintaining the status quo, which Europe considers to be an unacceptable - indeed, illegal - breach of the court's rulings.

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Departmental budgets are coming down: 3) Justice

By Paul Goodman
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And now for something a little bit bigger: The Justice Department.

2010 - 2011 Outturn: £9,338,400 b

2011 - 2012 Outturn: £9,026,000 b

Tim Montgomerie has set out in detail on this site how Ken Clarke made these savings as Justice Secretary.

Mr Clarke may not be ConservativeHome's biggest fan (nor we his) but Tim praised this "master of the departments he leads"..."this effective and fiscally-dry-as-dust minister".

"Unprecedented reductions in spending on public services" - Paul Johnson, Institute of Fiscal Studies.

The Justice and Security Bill: judges, not ministers, must decide what's heard in secret

By Paul Goodman
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When civil liberties and national security clash, the old, old Gilbert and Sullivan saying holds good.  The little liberals go off into one corner, citing threats to individual freedom.  Their fear comes from above: the state abusing the rights of the individual.  The little conservatives go off into the other, claiming collective security is in danger.  Their nightmare comes from below: terrorists endangering public safety.  Either vision can be noble; both can degenerate.  The civil libertarian love of liberty can morph into adolescent revolt against authority figures, or the special interest pleading of fat-cat lawyers with a financial stake.  The national security preoccupation with terror can degenerate into an obsession with order and control rooted in inadequacy and paranoia, or another kind of specal interest pleading: that of public servants who don't want to serve anyone - that's to say, who want ultimately only to be accountable to themselves.

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The Government prepares a compromise to stop Europe giving prisoners the vote

By Matthew Barrett
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The Sunday Telegraph reports this evening that the Government plans to introduce a Bill on prisoner voting this coming Thursday. The newspaper says that the Ministry of Justice's Bill will give Parliament the choice of three options:

1. Votes for prisoners who've been imprisoned for four years or less
2. Votes for prisoners who've been imprisoned for six months or less
3. No votes for prisoners at all

What is unclear is how the Government would proceed if MPs decide, as one might predict, to vote for the third option, not to give prisoners the vote, and the Court decides to fine the Government. The fact that the Government appears to be willing to be fined by Europe rather than defy the will of Parliament will seem a positive step for many Conservatives.

If the different options of the Bill are presented as a free vote, as one would expect, Cabinet members will also be free to vote as they wish, and it will be a point of interest as to how Ministers choose to vote. David Cameron's vote will be watched especially closely. A month ago at PMQs he said:

"I do not want prisoners to have the vote, and they should not get the vote—I am very clear about that. If it helps to have another vote in Parliament on another resolution to make it absolutely clear and help put the legal position beyond doubt, I am happy to do that. But no one should be in any doubt: prisoners are not getting the vote under this Government."

This statement would make it seem inconsistent for the Prime Minister to do anything other than vote for the third option in the Bill.

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Despite the low turnout, David Cameron says PCCs will have more legitimacy than their unelected predecessors. He's right.

By Matthew Barrett
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You wouldn't think there had been an England and Wales-wide election yesterday. Only three newspapers prominently display news of the PCC elections (above). All three make reference to the low turnout, which will be the only memorable feature of the elections for the average person.

To be sure, the turnout was low, and was disappointing, but was it a "humiliating blow" for the Prime Minister? No - or at least it shouldn't be. With elections at a highly unusual time of year, for a new office people might not yet understand, with relatively little awareness advertising (I saw one advert, about a month ago), and no taxpayer-funded leaflet campaigns, I'm not surprised turnout was low. It would have taken a Churchillian giant of British public life to secure any other outcome.

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Corby and Police Commissioner elections rolling blog

By Harry Phibbs
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7.00pm I'm signing off now. (Sorry Devon and Cornwall.)

With 40 out of the 41 PCC results declared, the Conservatives have 15 police commissioners, Labour 13 and independent candidates 12. Considering that Boris Johnson already has responsibility for policing in London and that many of the independents have Conservative views (Kevin Hurley in Surrey, Simon Hayes in Hampshire) it has been a good day for the Conservatives, for democracy and for policing. That will be the lasting significance long after the dreary media fixation with the low turnout is forgotten.

Obviously the event of the day was the magnificent defeat of Lord Prescott. The BBC have been anxious to ignore it. I'm not sure the press will be quite so discreet.

6.48pm Independent candidate Sue Mountstevens has won Avon and Somerset.

A Labour candidate has been elected as PCC for West Yorkshire, as expected.

Independent candidate Stephen Bett elected as PCC for Norfolk.

Congratulations to Conservative candidate John Dwyer on being elected PCC for Cheshire. This was a key Labour target.

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