Conservatives must champion "the consumer, the taxpayer and the entrepreneur"

By Tim Montgomerie
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Matt Sinclair of the TaxPayers' Alliance has written a good blog over at Coffee House defending George Osborne's determination to take on the green lobby and get a better deal for energy users. The Chancellor, argues Matt, is on the side of the consumer.

Standing up for the consumer is just one manifestation of what I've called a "Conservatism of the little guy". In an article I highlighted yesterday from US Congressman Paul Ryan he said Republicans should be the party of "the consumer, the taxpayer and the entrepreneur". Simple, but true. This idea of battling for the Average Joe against the machine is one of the themes being tested in the latest ConservativeHome survey. Item 12 in a list of 23 ideas to win the next election is "a new consumer agenda that reduces the power of big banks, energy companies and supermarkets".

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Caroline Spelman, Rain Goddess

By Paul Goodman
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Caroline Spelman failed to sell off or lease large parts of England's forests - as her acceptance yesterday of the Independent Panel on Forestry's report into their future reminded us.

But in another sense she has been a triumphant success - at least, if the example set by one of her predecessors and imitated by her is anything to go by.

Denis Howell was an obscure former Birmingham councillor and second-rank Labour MP when he was made Minister for Rain during the year that saw the the hottest summer average temperature in Britain since records began.

An obituary records: "His appointment coincided with the advent of heavy rainfall so that within 10 days of Harold Wilson giving him the job, he became known as Minister for Floods". Ms Spelman has been following in his footsteps.  She called a "Drought Summit" at DEFRA in February.  After that, things began to happen so thick and fast that it is hard to keep up:

• February 20: Ms Spelman warns that: "We are facing a severe water shortage...more areas are likely to be affected as we continue to experience a prolonged period of very low rainfall."  She confirms a drought order for the south-east, warned of impending hosepipe bans, and returns to her office to implement Action This Day.

• February 20-29: Rain begins immediately. The Met Office describes "frontal systems which mainly brought rain or showers to northern and, to some extent, western areas. The 20th, in particular, was wet across the north-west with over 40 mm in the north Pennines and 55 mm at Alston (Cumbria)."  However, the challenge remains, especially in the south-east: "Only 13 Februaries have been drier in the past century".

• March 3-7 and March 17-18: Mixed success for the Environment Secretary.  The Met Office records that "rain and brisk winds linger in the south-east until the 6th," and "rain spread from the west in the early hours of 17th, eventually clearing the far southeast in late evening".  However, "March 2012 was the warmest over the UK as a whole since 1997, and the sunniest since 1929."

• "Figures for 1 - 25 April show the month so far has seen well above average rainfall across the UK, with 97 mm of rain recorded," declares the Met Office, adding that "in the south, this month is one of only three in the last two years which has seen significantly above average rainfall."  The BBC adds to the provisional figures by declaring that "2012 had [the] wettest April for 100 years".  Triumph for Ms Spelman.

• May 1-15: "Rainfall was running at 79% of the average too, well ahead for just halfway through the month...This tells the story of a wet, gloomy and cold 15 days."  Then comes disaster, according to the Met Office: "a run of dry and fine weather, with some remarkably high temperatures".  But the previous month's rainfall hands the Environment Secretary a victory.  On May 19, she announces that 19 areas are to be moved out of drought.

• June 1-15: Ms Spelman advances into the south-east as three hospipe bans are lifted.  It's early days, but the Met Office reports that "a succession of frontal low-pressure systems have stalled over or close to the south of the country, bringing large amounts of rainfall in some areas, particularly in Wales and southern England...based on provisional mid-month stats, the beginning of June has been significantly wetter than average".

• June 15 - 30: The Met Office reports that "provisional Met Office figures for June show double the average amount of rain has fallen, making it the wettest June since records began in 1910".  Ms Spelman also succeeds in banishing sunshine. "It is also the second dullest June on record with just 119.2 hours of sunshine, narrowly missing out on the record of 115.4 hours set in 1987."

These dry summaries don't altogether capture the human drama of the situation.  I have attempted to provide some flavour of it recently on ConservativeHome's morning newslinks with headlines that none the less meet Lord Justice's Leveson's requirement of rigorously separating news from comment.  As Lord Ashcroft rightly declares on this site today, "ConservativeHome is of course strictly neutral and impartial, as I am sure all its readers would attest".

So for example I am able today in the newslinks below to report the Daily Mail's "Get set for a month's rain in next two days" under the headline "Rain Goddess Spelman will let a month's worth of rain fall today and tomorrow after she conjures up wettest June on record".  Similarly, an original headline declaring "80pm storm chaos on way" became "Rain Goddess Spelman to unleash storms and hurricane-force winds from lunchtime today."

The Mail reports that four water firms are resisting the Environment Secretary to the bitter end.   South East Water says that restrictions will stay in place until autumn at least, while Sutton and East Surrey Water, Veolia Central and Veolia Southeast declare that underwater aquifers are still not fully recharged.  But I am confident that the Rain Goddess will succeed at the last.

Readers in search of further information may want to read the Head of Water Resouces at the Environment Agency on why lots of rain doesn't necessarily mean the end of drought, and can cause flash floods.  The Mail suggests that Ms Spelman is also discharging rats, destroying farm crops and is threatening to disrupt Andy Murray's semi-final at Wimbledon.

The Tory grassroots see education and welfare reforms as the political successes of the Cameron years

By Tim Montgomerie
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In last week's edition of the New Statesman I took a brief look at the state of Tory modernisation. I suggested that certain of the big change themes that Cameron has pursued since 2005 or more recently had not really stood the test of time - notably climate change (which he hardly mentions anymore) and the Big Society (ditto). I argued, however, that the party was succeeding in two big areas:

"The Conservative Party can emerge stronger from the ashes of the coalition in 2015 but the offering has to be consistent with the high points of Cameron’s time at No 10. Education and welfare are the two stand-out strengths. In Michael Gove and Iain Duncan Smith, the Prime Min­ister has two of the most outstanding social reformers of our time. It would have been far-fetched to think of the Tories as the party of social reform before Cameron, but no longer. All the ingredients are there. They just need to be knitted together.

IDS is refashioning the welfare state so that work always pays more than benefits. He is reforming pensions so that the burden that faces the next generation of workers is not so impossible that they flee to less taxed nations. He is taking giant steps towards fashioning a welfare state that is focused on caring for the most deserving – the very young, the old, the sick and the severely disabled.

Gove, meanwhile, is pursuing his reforms to education. Over recent decades, the UK has slid down the international education league tables even faster than Leeds United have fallen behind in football. Central to Gove’s purpose is the restoration of honesty and ambition to the exams system."

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Conservative leadership opens door to third runway at Heathrow

By Matthew Barrett
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A story in the Financial Times (£) this morning contains the news that the Conservative leadership will, at the next election, give themselves the ability to support a third runway at Heathrow, after several years of opposition to such an increase in airport capacity. The FT reports:

"The Conservative leadership has decided to make a decisive switch away from the party’s outright hostility to a third runway at the west London airport by making no mention of Heathrow in its general election manifesto, according to senior party sources. That would clear the path for a majority Tory government to proceed with the project after 2015."

At present, the Coalition is delaying decisions on new capacity in the south east, due to serious divisions between the Coalition parties over the expansion of Heathrow. The Department for Transport will be recommending the Heathrow route as one option in its upcoming paper on aviation, but only as one of a range of choices which will include the expansion of Stansted or Gatwick, a new Thames estuary airport, or linking Heathrow and Gatwick with a high speed rail connection.

This future paper has already been delayed by three months. Ostensibly this is to allow aviation companies to produce long responses to the plans, but in actual fact, delaying the publication of any recommendation to expand Heathrow allows the Coalition to escape an unnecessary row. That row may not be entirely avoidable, however: the Treasury is keen on, to coin a phrase, maxing out Heathrow. Their suggestions include allowing more night flights, and allowing runways to be used for landings and take-offs simultaneously. The Lib Dems do not agree with either of these measures. The FT also reports that Coalition interest in a Thames estuary option is waning, due to its £50bn cost.

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Reacting to fuel duty decision, 78% of Tory members want more tax cuts funded by faster spending cuts

By Tim Montgomerie
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24 hours ago George Osborne announced that the planned 3p increase in fuel duty would not go ahead in August. During the day many readers have been voting in our end-June survey. That survey is still open (vote here) but over 1,000 Tory members have already participated and here are the results of the question on the fuel duty decision...

Three-quarters agree that the Chancellor took the right decision:

• 74% agreed that "there might have been a terrible backlash from voters if petrol duty had gone up by 3p in August". 16% disagreed.
• 74% (again) saw the decision as "a sign of a government that has listened to MPs, newspapers and voters". 18% disagreed.
• 48% agreed, however, that "this was another U-turn from George Osborne that risks making him look weak". 44% disagreed.

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Osborne's fuel duty news and his Treasury golden rule: never, ever allow oneself to be outsmarted by Ed Balls.

By Paul Goodman
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George Osborne's decision to halt August's planned fuel duty rise and freeze it for the rest of this year is an adroit retreat which will be greeted with relief by motorists - and, furthermore, has been played by the book, since he's just announced it in the Commons.

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George Osborne's decision to halt August's planned fuel duty rise and freeze it for the rest of this year is a panic climbdown which will be greeted with contempt by everyone - and, furthermore, is extremely badly timed, since Ed Balls called for it today.

You must decide for yourself which version you prefer, if either.  The Chancellor will be well aware that the change of plan provides more ammunition to those who accuse him of incoherence - given his post-budget shifts on pasties, charities, caravans and church renovations.

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A firm prediction... HS2 will never happen

By Tim Montgomerie
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That's my firm prediction and I think Lord Adonis, the Labour Transport Secretary who pioneered the idea, knows it too. Earlier this week he accused the Government of dither and delay over what was once thought to be a flagship environmental and economic project.

Three things have changed the Government's view of HS2. The two most important factors are the rising cost of the project - partly because extra tunnelling has been promised to protect the countryside but also because costs of these projects nearly always run out of control - and secondly new doubts about the perceived benefits of the project. These doubts will be heightened by today's Sunday Telegraph story from Andrew Gilligan. He reports that a Department of Transport analysis into HS2's benefits was suppressed after it questioned whether the giant scheme would produce anything like benefits that had been claimed it would bring. The original claim was that HS2 would cost £17 billion but produce benefits of £23 billion. Estimated costs have already risen by 10% to 30% while the benefits may have been grossly overstated.

The third factor is the politics. The Tories were willing to swallow unhappiness amongst shire Tories if the project won support in target northern seats. Again both sides of this equation have changed. The party leadership had calculated that neither Labour nor the LibDems as supporters of HS2 would seek to capitalise on southern discontent. They hadn't anticipated the UKIP factor. Nigel Farage has instructed all UKIP candidates in the south to campaign strongly against the hi-speed rail link and its impact on England's green and pleasant land. On the other side of the equation the project is not so popular in the North. By 53% to 32% northern voters told pollsters for Policy Exchange that HS2 was poor value for money. The idea of immediate rail investment - as advanced in the Alternative Queen's Speech - might prove more compelling.

George Osborne - behind last week's scepticism on windfarms - is thought to be leading the change of heart. The Treasury has always been sceptical of 'grand projets'.

Tory movement against wind farms and HS2 is gathering momentum

By Tim Montgomerie
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The environment is becoming a new source of potential tension within the Coalition and within the Conservative Party. David Cameron and the Liberal Democrats have tended to emphasise climate change as central to their green agenda while local Tory councils and Tory supporters have been more focused on local and micro-environmentalism. This has meant Tory councils have often led the agenda on recycling and energy conservation, for example*, but have either opposed or been reluctant supporters of action on climate change if it means the installation of wind farms.

Perhaps the biggest clash between the two green worldviews will come over HS2. The PM and his Coalition partners see high-speed rail as an essential way of reducing demand for short haul air travel but Tory voters across much of England see the planned railway as devastating for the beauty of the countryside. Sources tell me that the Treasury is sounding ever louder warnings within Whitehall about the escalating estimated costs of the project. There is a lot of sympathy for the view put forward in the Alternative Queen's Speech that we should forget HS2 and upgrade existing rail infrastructure and get a cheaper, quicker hit.

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Osborne can still prosper but he must choose between being Chancellor and general busybody

By Tim Montgomerie
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There's not much joy for George Osborne in today's YouGov poll for The Sunday Times (PDF). Two weeks ago ConHome revealed that Tory members had lost a lot of faith in the Chancellor and negativity is now widespread across the public. Just 18% think he is doing a good job and 58% think he is doing a bad job. That compares to a 34%/60% rating for David Cameron. Mr Osborne is also blamed for the U-turns. 31% of those who see the U-turns as a sign of weakness or incompetence blame him for them. That compares to just 18% who blame the Prime Minister and 15% who blame Nick Clegg.

When I revealed the downturn in support for the Chancellor a fortnight ago I also said that I still believed that he was the one man in the Cabinet who could turn things around:

"The Budget was not well handled but he remains one of the Government's most able ministers. All reports from trusted sources say he has a very good grip on the Treasury. He remains very capable of first deciding upon and then executing a change of course. If anyone can identify and then deliver the gear change that this Coalition needs it is him."

There have been signs in recent times that George Osborne is on serious manoeuvres. We have learnt that he is urging the Prime Minister to back a referendum on Britain's future relationship with the European Union. A much more pronounced Eurosceptic than David Cameron he is facing resistance from his former boss and now Foreign Secretary, William Hague. The Chancellor nonetheless believes that such a pledge is essential to solidify the Conservative Party's unhappy base vote. James Forsyth reports in today's Mail on Sunday that Coalition failure on immigration is a bigger drag on Tory fortunes. While that might be correct the issues aren't unconnected. Until we can control our border with the EU we cannot control our border full stop.

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Swivel-eyed Euro-enthusiasts

By Paul Goodman
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I've joined the great national debate about swivelling eyes in the Daily Telegraph this morning.  I'm not adding much to it here, but this article gives me the chance both to link to my piece and Tim's on Saturday - and also to showcase Carla Miller's illustration above.

The backbone of my case, reflecting on Greg Barker's warnings against the Conservative Party adopting the "swivel-eyed" rhetoric of UKIP, is that -

• Yes, Euro-sceptics are often swivel-eyed.

• But so are Euro-enthusiasts, such as Chris Huhne (Barker's former boss) and Michael Heseltine.

• So consider the state of Europe's economy, and ask yourself: which have done more harm to growth, jobs and prosperity?

• And while we're on the subject of swivel-eyed fanaticism, what about the man-made global warming lobby?

The essence of my case is as follows:

"Obsessiveness is in the eye of the beholder. And more importantly, much depends what one is obsessive about. William Wilberforce’s obsession with ending the slave trade was viewed as swivel-eyed by the establishment of his day. But who is regarded both as righteous and reasonable now – Wilberforce or his opponents?"