Conservative Diary

Election debates

15 Apr 2010 22:59:55

ConHome's expert panel give their take on tonight's debate

DEBATEREACTION

ConservativeHome assembled an expert panel of political commentators to give readers their take on tonight's debate. Here's what they have to say:

Michael Brown 2009 Michael Brown - Independent columnist and Conservative MP between 1979 and 1997

Without hearing any other TV pundit or listening to any opinion poll my immediate reaction is that Nick Clegg scored over the other two. He did this by one very simple trick. He looked straight into the camera throughout. Cameron and Brown both concentrated on looking at the audience which meant that to the viewer they looked more shifty. No great clanger was dropped by anyone. It was less stilted - although repititious - than I expected. I predict the Lib Dems will get an immediate poll bounce.

Michael Dobbs Michael Dobbs - Author, journalist and former Deputy Chairman of both the Conservative Party and Saatchi & Saatchi

I was a sceptic about the value of these leadership programmes - and remain so.  It wasn't a debate of any sort, but a series of statements with very little interchange, and no real pressure, no revelations, no knockouts blows.

It won't have helped many people make up their minds.  It felt particularly artificial without any audience feedback.  Brown's tactics are clear - to argue as though he's an opposition leader without any responsibility for the last 13 years.  Law and order, immigration, MPs' expenses, education - the current position is unacceptable: we must do more! Sadly, he wasn't nailed for his repeated claims that he's given the armed forces everything they wanted in Afghanistan.

Clegg inevitably had a soft ride - the framework suits third parties, but Cameron came on particularly strong at the end with his appeal to hope over Brown's offering of fear.  More of that, please!

Sheila Gunn Sheila Gunn - Political consultant and former press adviser to John Major

Well, were voters swayed? Was anything new said by any of them? Maybe not.  All three played true to character most of the time. Cameron coped best, as expected.  Brown survived, while Clegg thrived. 

And it was Nick Clegg who looked like the key beneficiary for the first part.  Then it started to look like there was barely a sliver of difference between him and Brown, almost to the point where he appeared to be the PM’s eager young protégé.   Clegg was sharp enough to sense the danger and unearthed a few reasons for disagreeing with Brown.  Maybe Conservative canvassers could resurrect the highly successful `1992 election line that “a vote for the liberals is a vote for Labour”?

Then halfway through Brown clearly forgot all that training from Campbell and Mandelson and reverted to type, giving long lists, hammering away at arguments, a few nasty jibes.  His words were like invisible particles of volcanic ash clogging up a plane’s engines. Exhausting, depressing and debilitating.  Bring on the next one!

Picture 3 Nick Wood - Managing Director of Media Intelligence Partners and former Press Secretary to William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith

A score draw. But one with a winner. Nick Clegg is now a national figure, having started the night as leader of an insignificant party most of the media and the political class could safely ignore. A hung Parliament is even
more likely.

Cameron was assured and well briefed. Gordon made a joke and looked quasi-human. But Clegg was allowed to play with the big boys - and took his chance. Dave will have to take the gloves off - and soon. Less detail - more oomph.

Charles LewingtonCharles Lewington - Managing Director of Hanover Communications and former Press Secretary to John Major

Cameron needed to be mature and statesmanlike and he pulled the trick in ways that I suspect the debate polls won't immediately confirm. Clegg did well bustling in with his 'honest' (though dishonest) politics but he looked like a boy and it's not enough to deliver a serious third party vote in a big change election on May 6. Gordon wasn't a train crash but people stopped listening to him and his 'net inward migration' numbers long ago. DC's final 'work hard and we'll stand behind you' entreaty was pure Sarkozy and I loved it.

15 Apr 2010 22:28:14

Brown trailing in the post-debate opinion polls

DEBATEPOLLS

WHO WON THE DEBATE IN THE IMMEDIATE POLLS?

FivePoll

ComRes also asked: Which party leader would you say you trust most to make any necessary cuts to public services?

Brown 28%
Cameron 36%
Clegg 36%
 
And again from ComRes: And which one of the three main parties do you think has the best policies on immigration?

Conservative 37%
Labour 20%
Lib Dem 35%

YouGov also asked: Who would make best Prime Minister?

Cameron 39%
Brown 29%
Clegg 26%

> NB Remember what Stephan Shakespeare wrote last night: Beware of immediate post-debate polls

Jonathan Isaby

15 Apr 2010 19:00:04

Live blog of the ITV Leaders' Debate

LiveBlog

From 8.30pm Jonathan Isaby, Tim Montgomerie and Paul Goodman will be live blogging the leaders' debate, which will be broadcast live on ITV1 and Radio 4...

Non-verbatim highlights will appear in this type

Comments from Jonathan, Tim and Paul will appear in italics

8.29pm Debate about to start...  To read Tory Twitterers through the debate, follow this link.

8.30pm And we're off. Cameron in blue tie, Brown in pink tie, Clegg in yellow tie.

8.35pm Clegg gets first opening statement - "We can do something different this time"

8.36pm Brown gets second opening statement: It all comes down to getting a strong economy and avoiding  double dip recession

8.37pm Cameron begins by apologising for the expenses scandal, and says that not all Labour did was bad.

JI: Interesting that in opening statements Clegg and Cameron spoke directly to camera; Brown addressed audience.

PG: Brown staking everything on recovery v risk strategy - nothing on society.  Cameron opening on expenses very artful - and "we're all in this together".  Clegg trying to head off election as choice between two big parties.

8.38pm First question is on immigration

8.41pm JI: Looks like Brown is wearing too much red lipstick!

8.42pm JI: All three are using real life examples of people they've met to discuss immigration cases. Interesting that Cameron refers to Brown as "Gordon". Will he reciprocate by calling David Cameron by his first name?! (I think not)

Picture 6
8.44pm TM: Very good answer from Cameron on immigration. He links the issue to pressure on housing, environment and public services. Says immigration is "too much" and will bring numbers down from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands. He says a black man who served in the Royal Navy told him that immigration was too much. Cameron says it is "out of control".

8.45pm: PG: Was it my hearing, or did Brown just say that we need to "tighten the skills" brought into Britain?

8.46pm JI: Cameron commanding discussion on immigration: Brown tries to interrupt unsuccessfully, and Alistair Stewart goes to Clegg for more instead.

8.47pm: PG: Very early days, but Brown needs a clear win tonight, and he's not commanding the discussion.

TM: Good to see Cameron probing Nick Clegg on his crazy immigration scheme. The Tory leader jokes that about Liberals erecting guards at regional borders.

8.48pm: We are onto how to make the country safer with question two.

8.54pm JI: None of the trio saying anything remarkable about law and order in my view - though Brown outrageously accuses the Conservatives of not intending to fund the police properly. Cameron says that it is important to get police ointo the front line - "crime fighters not form fillers"

8.58 PG: Clegg much less impressive on specifics than on his general line of attack.  Brown couldn't resist his Ashdown joke, but at last on front foot questioning Cameron.  Cameron insisting that what matters isn't so much the money but how it's used.

8,59pm TM: The exchanges between the leaders are quite robust and direct. The format is no way near as stilted as I feared and expected.

9pm Question Three on MPs' expenses.

9.01pm JI: Both Cameron and Brown have been citing their parents as inspirations. For each question Brown appears to have three pre-prepared points which he opens with "There are three things I want to say..."

9.02pm JI: Brown answers the question first and is able to get in with the recall powers and referendum power policies he took from the Tories. Cameron majors on cutting the cost of politics through reducing the numbers of MPs etc. Clegg is the first to mention Lord Ashcroft.

9.06pm TM: Brown has at least THREE TIMES said "I agree with Nick". His courting of the LibDems is at 100mph.

9.08pm: PG: Brown trying to rope Clegg in to gang up on Cameron - presages his strategy for a hung Parliament.  Clegg resisting the invite and sticking to his "plague on both your houses" strategy".  Cameron did well on Clegg's dodgy donor.

9.09pm TM: Showing signs of warming up and relaxing, Gordon Brown's best moment of the debate comes when he attacks Cameron for supporting the hereditary principle. Cameron accuses Clegg of a "holier than thou" attitude and asks if he has repaid the £2.5m money given to the LibDems by a man now on the run from the police.

9.10pm Ex Observer journalist Gaby Hinsliff Tweets: "Cameron is drawing serious advantage from being in the middle of stage. makes him look in control. and centrist."

9.10pm Next question is on education.

9.14pm JI: Cameron is the only of the trio to mention discipline in schools. Used that good line about treating teachers like children and children like adults. (Clegg in his second bite of the cherry does then mention discipline)

9.17pm JI: Good line from Cameron in saying the DCSF is not known as the Department for Comfort and Soft Furnishings for nothing.

9.16pm PG: I keep coming back to the key point.  Brown needs a knock-out win.  Cameron merely needs a draw.  Simply by being there, Clegg is mixing the debate up and establishing a presence.  Best guess is that he will gain from this debate - and prevent any chance of Brown establishing dominance.

9.20pm TM: Good, if predictable, line from Clegg: "The more they attack each other, the more they sound the same."

9.21pm Next question brings us onto the economy and dealing with the deficit (I thought that in two weeks' time??)

9.23: PG: Perhaps as important as the debate battle is the spin war.  Campbell and Prescott blogging aggressively on Twitter, knocking every answer and trying to establish an anti-Cameron mood and consensus.  CCHQ are responding rapidly to Brown lies in e-mails to journalists, but I can see less on Twitter.

9.25pm JI: Cameron's position centre stage really is aiding him in giving him a command over the debate.

9.28pm Early Sky News polling shows Cameron 36, Clegg 36, Brown 28.

9.28: Clegg leading on YouGov tracking poll, Cameron behind him, Brown well behind both.  Tweetminster shows three in the same order. 

9.31pm Cameron: People will think it extraordinary that Brown wants to keep wasting money to aid the recovery.

9.32pm Next question on the underequipped armed forces.

9.33pm JI: Brown claiming to have been doing lots to properly equip armed forces. Cameron also pays tribute to them, but says we have not done enough for them and cites Labour efforts to cut training for the TA. He could have been angrier about this subject in my view.

9.36pm TM: Sickening but Brown sounds convincing in his tribute to the troops.  

9.37pm JI: Over an hour in, time going very quickly!

9.38 pm PG: No winner from this defence section.  It's slowed the debate down.  Striking that the number of tweets on Tim's list of main tweeters of all political views has dropped off.

9.40pm TM: Clegg has mentioned his Sheffield constituency three or four times and there's 30 minutes to go. Is he worried about his backyard?

9.41pm TM: Best attack so far from Cameron on Clegg - against his wish to scrap Trident. We live in an uncertain world, the Tory leader says. If Iran gets a nuclear weapon I don't want Britain to have given up the ultimate protection.

9.42pm Next question is on health.

9.44pm David Cameron pays big tribute to the NHS and its staff for what they have done for his family.  Brown keeps attacking on Conservatives not matching Labour's guarantees - he's been robotically prepped.  Clegg attacking Cameron from the right on the NHS - arguing for "savings in the NHS".

9.48pm PG: The NHS ought to be very difficult territory for Cameron, but having established his bona fides right at the start - with his reference back to the death of his son - he's more than holding his own against Brown's attack - counter-attacking now on Brown's NIC rise.

9.50pm TM: Cameron has been at his best at the beginning and end of the debate. Strong on immigration and in talking about his plan to provide cancer care drugs.

9.52pm Final question is on care for the elderly.

9.55pm PG: Brown hasn't won the debate - but Labour are still piling into the spin war.  CCHQ seem to be rebutting Brown's facts rather than laying into his performance - exposing weaknesses, spotting sections of the debate where he fell behind, helping to shape opinion.  They should be doing better.  It's taken Guido to tweet a supportive Sky poll showing Clegg and Cameron neck to neck, Brown behind.

9.59pm TM: I'd be VERY interested in the time given to each leader. I think Clegg got most.

10pm Closing statements. Clegg first, again trying to talk direct to camera but referring to notes in which he seeks to namecheck all the questioners and keeps referring to notes.

10.02pm Brown closes in saying he was especially struck by the NHS question and then goes on tot talk about the need to secure the recovery and not take money out of the economy etc etc. Claims the NIC rise to protect the health service. Again talks ot the audience.

10.04pm Cameron: There have been repeated attempts to frighten you; but choose hope over fear. We can do more incredible things, but real change comes when we work together.

10.06pm End of debate!

10.07pm PG: My verdict.  Dull audience stuck to the rules, Stewart peevish and unauthoritative, no clear winner and the debate thus went much by the book.  Clegg did well simply by being there, and was energetic in attacking both main parties in an equidistant way.  Brown stuck dully to his attack lines, but didn't break through.  Cameron strongest at beginning and end, and polling fine on Sky.  Should be broadly satisfied, but CCHQ needs to get more aggressive in the spin war.

10.14pm TM: My verdict: No gaffes. Clegg used his time in the sun well. Brown survived. Cameron best on immigration, cancer but wasn't hard enough v Brown. But, overall, unlikely to be a gamechanger.

10.15pm JI: Cameron commanded the debate for much of the evening, aided by his central position. This was especially evident on the wide shots. I think he could have been angrier with Brown on various issues about Labour failure, but suspect the advice has been that too much anger is too negative for viewers.

15 Apr 2010 13:58:29

Brown needs to win tonight

BrownTrio Labour is heading for defeat. That's the consistent message of the opinion polls for two-and-a-half years. We get far too excited about the daily movement of the opinion polls but the reality is that Labour has struggled to get above 30% in more than a very few surveys.

Despite the enormous efforts of the union movement, Labour has little money for the campaign. Huge numbers of its MPs are retiring, giving Tory candidates the advantage of not facing incumbents. Seeing the writing on the wall, big Labour beasts - led by Andrew Adonis - are whispering sweet nothings in the direction of the Liberal Democrats in the hope of staying in power in the event of their best hope, a hung parliament.

Tonight and the next two debates are Brown's last, best chances of getting back in the race. As Nick Wood blogged earlier, Labour spinmeisters are downplaying expectations and are suggesting that Brown is not performing well in debate prep. Brown won't be a disaster tonight. He'll turn up with strong lines from Mandelson, Campbell, Whelan and, I dare say, Damian McBride. These people are good at partisan politics and Brown will arrive at the lecturn weaponised.

If he's going to stop the Tories getting an overall majority he needs to win tonight. A draw is probably good enough for Cameron. It's not good enough for Brown.

FiveBenchmarks Brown winning is my first benchmark for judging tonight. He'll certainly exceed wooden spoon expectations but he really needs to win.

My second benchmark is whether Cameron takes the opportunity to be retail enough. Will he spell out, in specific terms, how viewers will benefit from a Conservative government, particularly in terms of their economic well-being?

Benchmark three: Will Cameron hit hard on the issue of immigration? The Tory leadership is underplaying the issue in this election almost as much as it was overplayed it in 2005. It's possible the issue won't come up but I'm pretty sure it will.

Benchmark four: Will David Cameron make it clear to every LibDem/Con waverer that a vote for Nick Clegg is a back door vote for Brown? The Liberals kept Labour in power in the 1970s. In the 1980s they voted with Labour 90% of the time. In the 1990s Paddy Ashdown had long negotiations with Tony Blair that would have resulted in a coalition if Labour hadn't won in 1997. Throughout the last decade they've moved left as a party, with two-thirds of their activists closer to Labour than to the centre.

My final benchmark is for ITV. Will Nick Clegg be properly scrutinised? Channel 4 almost allowed Vince Cable to be the impartial referee between Darling and Osborne in the Chancellor's debate. The same thing mustn't happen tonight.

Tim Montgomerie

15 Apr 2010 11:54:23

David Cameron needs to show some grit, convey some anger and tell a joke or two during tonight's debate

 ExpectationsSoLow

Nick Wood previews tonight's leaders' debate.

Nick WoodAuthenticity, passion, incisiveness, grit - and above all humour. These are the qualities David Cameron has to display tonight in the first of the Leaders' Debates.

Cameron goes into the debate in the unenviable position of being the front-runner. Or to put it another way, he has most to lose.

The spin-doctors have been hard at work massaging expectations. Dave, comfortable in the role of being his own spin-doctor, has divulged that he is "nervous" at the prospect of the contest.

Labour's black ops brigade have told The Times the hilarious news that Gordon is struggling in training, giving long-winded answers overflowing with reams of statistics.

Mr Clegg, who has the greatest opportunity tonight to make new friends in Middle England, appears the most relaxed of the trio. His final pre-match warm-up will consist of a long walk in the Pennines. His seconds will be hoping that he gets back in time and doesn't disappear in a cloud of volcanic ash, presumably Iceland's revenge for Britain pulling the plug on its banking system.

Cameron has already made the most memorable contribution to the campaign. His Big Society versus Big State manifesto will be remembered - for good or ill - long after the dust has settled on the election.

Its boldness is impressive, but the doubt remains that like many a Hilton/Letwin confection it has gone over the heads of much of the country. As Ken Clarke might put it, does it pass the "wet Wednesday in Walsall" test? It might win intrigue university professors but will it mean much to voters in the Midlands worried about the familiar staples of taxes, health care and immigration (so far virtually unmentioned in the Conservative
campaign)?

Politics abhors a vacuum. In the absence of a full-scale row about sorting out the deficit, which has so far only engaged the Lib Dems, personality may come to define and determine this election.

Expectations of that misfiring adding machine Mr Brown are so low that all he has to do is smile at the right time for the Labour spin machine to declare him the winner. Provided Campbell, Mandelson and Co can reprogramme him as a human being for the night, Gordon may even get off the canvas.

Cameron, the star of unscripted, impromptu communication, has a higher hurdle to jump. His verbal dexterity and fluency is exceptional but he must not come across as slick and superficial - which will be how Brown will try to paint him. Gordon's "no time for a novice", his best line as PM, will never be far from his mind.

Cameron needs to show some grit, some rough edges, just like his "Fire up the Quattro" alter ego DCI Gene Hunt. He has to convey some genuine anger at the state of the country, brought low economically, socially and politically by Labour's spectacular mismanagement of our affairs. And he needs a joke or two about poor clunky Gordon.

As for Clegg, roaming the moors in search of a soundbite, he is the guy with lucky break. It is like Federer and Nadal making the Wimbledon final and then inviting one of the beaten quarter-finalists to join them on Centre
Court.

It will be tough for Cameron playing against two conventional leftists. If he comes out on top he will have taken another significant step to Downing Street.

Nick Wood, Managing Director, Media Intelligence Partners

15 Apr 2010 09:15:18

Poll of marginals points to Tory victory

HarrisTwo other national polls last night suggested Tory leads of 6% and 9%. CCHQ will be most encouraged by a Crosby/Textor poll of 100 marginals - reported in The Telegraph - which suggests the Conservatives ARE on course for a working majority.

ConHome is taking Stephan Shakespeare's advice and waiting until 48 to 72 hours after tonight's first election debate before drawing any conclusions about trends in public opinion. Only tonight will, I think, voters begin to switch on to the election choice. As Guido blogs, Cameron and Clegg go into the gladitorial contest as big favourites to succeed.

Tim Montgomerie

15 Apr 2010 07:57:08

David Cameron to take centre-stage in tonight's leaders' debate

Leader debates logo The day of the first ever TV leaders' debate during a British General Election has finally arrived.

Tonight, at 8.30pm on ITV1, David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown will go head to head in a debate chaired by Alistair Stewart which will concentrate on domestic affairs (excluding the economy).

David Cameron will be centre-stage for the encounter (with Clegg on the left of the screen and Brown on the right), which is being filmed at Granada's studios in Manchester and will also be aired live on BBC Radio 4.

The word "historic" is used liberally among this morning's media reports, with all the inevitable comparison to the US Presidential debates.

But will it make any difference to the outcome of the election? Today's Independent carries the headline "Ninety minutes that could change Britain", citing research by ComRes showing that the votes of half of those watching could be influenced by the debate, whilst Mori research for the Daily Express puts the figure at nearer two thirds.

Much is made of the fact that Clegg is being given equal prominence as the two other leaders, with the Times calling it a "once-in-a-generation chance to power the Liberal Democrats to prominence", whilst the Guardian reports that both Labour and Tory teams have already been "jockeying to present themselves as the underdog".

There is of course the danger that the whole event could be an anti-climax and fail to live up to all the hype, as Stephan Shakespeare suggested earlier in the week. David Cameron is quoted in the Daily Telegraph this morning as fearing that it could be "slow and sluggish". The leaders will probably - at the very least for this first debate - be erring on the side of caution and be most concerned about coming out the other side unscathed having not committed gaffes, rather than taking risks.

Nevertheless, as I wrote here when the leaders agreed to the debates, I think these debates are a positive development, not least because it will see millions of people engaging with the political process, at a time when public disillusionment with politics is at an all-time high.

Those of us in the blue corner should be confident that as a now seasoned politician and TV performer, David Cameron will give a good account of the optimistic Conservative vision for Britain, whilst exposing Labour's failures in a serious, yet personable way. The friendly advice we provided here yesterday should help his final preparations.

Needless to say, ConservativeHome will be live-blogging the debate, as well as providing post-debate analysis from a panel of leading commentators.

Jonathan Isaby

14 Apr 2010 22:05:14

Beware of the immediate post-debate polls

The Shakespeare Report.

I have a little theory that can't be proven or disproven (a great advantage) but which at least reminds us to be cautious.

After a headline-grabbing show-case political event such as the annual conference of a party, you usually get a small sympathetic move in the polls, which tends to disappear a few days later - it happens after the Democratic and Republican conventions in the US as well. This doesn't surprise us, but perhaps it should: do we really imagine that significant numbers of people change their minds about who to vote for after a single staged event? And then reverts?

It seems unlikely. More likely, I believe, is that those who take least interest in political matters, but who feel they should give the pollsters an opinion other than 'don't know', are more likely to be swayed by whatever they happened to hear most recently. And are least likely actually to vote.

Think of that after the debates. It is of course possible that one candidate or other will make such a strong or hopeless performance that floating voters flip from one side to another. But for that to happen, we would have to suppose a very large, highly engaged and yet strongly personality-influenced audience. It strikes me as more probable that the majority of the audience have already committed and are watching as a spectator sport. Short-lived mini-bounces in the polls are therefore much more likely to come from people who don't really care but are picking up a little buzz from the papers the next day.

That, of course, is still worth noting; under the froth there may yet be a little substance; we just shouldn't over-interpret its significance.

Stephan Shakespeare is CEO of YouGov.

14 Apr 2010 09:12:14

Ten tips for Cameron ahead of the election debates

A good friend who works for a political communications company in Washington DC coaches largely US Republican candidates for debates. His clients will be well known to most ConHome readers. He spent a couple of hours going through the David Cameron video category on PlayPolitical and sent me an email about the things that Cameron should do and not do, during the looming debates. I republish the email below. It is directed at David Cameron.

You are a good communicator. One of the best I've ever seen. You will do well in these debates by being natural, by being yourself. Don't try to engineer a special performance for the debate.

Go into the debate thinking about one result for yourself, one result for Brown and one result for Clegg. For yourself it should be to look statesmanlike rather than to be liked. People aren't voting for a good neighbour but for a leader. So avoid any cheap attacks. For Brown the line is you don't deserve a fourth chance. For Clegg it should be you are Brown's best hope of staying in power.

Pay tribute to opponents' successes. Don't attack all the time. Attacks will be more effective if they are seasoned.

Look interested in the views of Clegg and Brown. Look at your opponents when they are speaking. Minimize looking down at the lecturn and never look at your watch.

Keep within time limits. Running over time limits more than once is resented by viewers and makes you look undisciplined.

CameronTongueOutAvoid the 'lizard tongue'. It's ugly and suggests nerves.

You do not have a strong laugh so smile when something is funny. You have a good smile.

Jokes at your own expense are the best. People like people who don't take themselves too seriously.

Be ready to admit a mistake. It's the obvious question to prepare for.

And the best advice I can give you: Don't over do the facts. Use two or three strong stories. People remember stories but forget stats.

There ends the substance of the email.

Tim Montgomerie

10 Apr 2010 22:59:31

How much difference will the TV debates make?

The Shakespeare Report.

The-Leadership-Debates-boxi There's great excitement about what the effect the leaders' debates might have on the course of the election campaign. Everyone remembers how Kennedy v Nixon seemed pivotal in 1960, and we now have our very own debates with the first one just days away. As the race remains reasonably close, everyone is wondering: just how much will this direct TV confrontation between Cameron and Brown really matter?

Anything can happen; it's possible that there will be a surprise, a mistake, a knock-out punch. But my own view is, the odds are very much against it. The Chancellor Debate didn't exactly set the world on fire - or even get noticed by the great majority of the public.

The comparison with American politics just doesn't work: in America, people really do have to decide between two people, two individuals, very often two new candidates they hardly know. Not so in Britain, where we've had years of direct bear-pit confrontation at the weekly PMQs. And a significantly greater proportion of the American population is engaged with the political process compared to the British. Yet even in America, it's very rare for the debates to have a genuine impact. Notice that everyone goes back 50 years to remember one that may have made a difference. And yes, there was a good one-liner in 1984's Reagan v Mondale, but it changed nothing, and... that's it. Can you remember another moment?

It can hardly be over-emphasised: most people find politics profoundly dull and pointless, and putting it on prime-time won't change that. It seems unlikely that many millions will give up a big part of their evening to assess the qualities of Brown and Cameron in debate, even with all the media hype that is undoubtedly coming. I love the Danny Finkelstein/Phil Collins blog at The Times which runs an agony-uncle column, ostensibly to help its readers decide which candidate to vote for: we are invited to imagine a confused 'true blue' seeking advice from pundits on what to do in Buckingham. It's an amusing format precisely because it's so hard to imagine that anyone really makes up their mind in this way.

I don't suppose either Brown or Cameron will take much of a risk, as both would rather get a goalless draw than raise the stakes. That's very much the flavour of this campaign so far. I was out in the country today talking to a friend who said,

"It's like there's a conspiracy to make this race all about nothing. All the politicians are acting like a cartel, with a shared interest in nobody getting interested. Out here we hardly notice, because they don't talk about what matters to us."

Certainly all three parties in this first week have played it like a game only for the cognescenti, the knowing insider, the smart Westminster audience, not aimed at the wider public at all. So perhaps after all we do need these debates, just in case they inject something fresh - we need a stage for that accidental flash-point that sparks the real contest.

Stephan Shakespeare is CEO of YouGov.