Should we intervene in Syria? Should CCHQ release party membership figures? What should Cameron's red lines for a second Coalition be?

By Peter Hoskin
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Answer all of the above questions, and more, in ConservativeHome's latest monthly survey.

To complete the survey, click here.

Conservative members want the Coalition to end shortly before the election (and are opposed to the idea of another afterwards)

By Peter Hoskin
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Like I said a week ago, the summer recess has delivered an upturn in chatter about the Coalition. And, here on ConservativeHome, we added to that chatter this week with a rather striking poll finding: that a majority of party members now say that the Coalition is good for Britain.

Well, now we have some more Coalition-related results from our latest survey to share with you – specifically on its duration. Here’s the first, on the question of when the Tories and Lib Dems should split up. As you’ll see, the most popular choice was “shortly before the 2015 general election”, although the other three options each received around 20 per cent of the vote:

Then the question of when the Tories and Lib Dems will split up. Again, “shortly before the 2015 general election” came out on top, but by a larger margin this time. Only one per cent of party members believe that the divorce will happen this year, well below the proportion that wants it to:

Continue reading "Conservative members want the Coalition to end shortly before the election (and are opposed to the idea of another afterwards)" »

A summer bounce! Cameron, Osborne and May soar up our Cabinet league table

By Peter Hoskin
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Oh yes, sunshine is winning the day. Compared to the last Cabinet league table we published, two-and-a-bit months ago, the latest is notable for its buoyancy. Of the 30 ministers (and one London mayor) rated by ConservativeHome readers, 17 have seen their numbers improve, 9 have remained more or less flat, and only 4 have declined in any significant way. Even Nick Clegg has seen his net satisfaction rating increase – and by enough to lift him from the bottom of the table, as you can see below.

Continue reading "A summer bounce! Cameron, Osborne and May soar up our Cabinet league table" »

A majority of Party members now say that the Coalition is good for Britain

By Paul Goodman
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In May, 47 per cent of Conservative members said that the Coalition is good for the country...and 47 per cent said that it isn't.

There has been little alteration since then in our surveys, but this month's finds a step change among activists: 59 per cent now say that Coalition is good for the country, and 35 per cent say that it isn't.

In May, 23 per cent said that the Coalition is good for the Party and 71 per cent said that it isn't. Those figures are now 31 per cent and 61 per cent.

That almost a third of activists now say that the Coalition is good for the Party is a striking result - though, obviously, these findings chop and change, and are largely led by the fortunes of the two main parties.

As I wrote yesterday, "Cameron is handling his Parliamentary Party better, and Ed Miliband is on the back foot over welfare and Unite".

"Abu Qatada has gone, James Wharton's EU referendum bill is here, the benefits cap is in place, the economy is gradually recovering." Confidence in Cameron as the person respondents would like to lead the Party into the next election has also risen - from 55 per cent to 65 per cent.

Just over 1550 people responded to the survey, of whom over 700 were Conservative Party members. The figures above are taken from the latter's views.

Almost two-thirds of Tory members believe Cameron will be Prime Minister after 2015

By Paul Goodman
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The figures are as follows from our latest monthly survey -

• 26 per cent believe that there will be a Conservative majority (up from 15 per cent).

• 23 per cent of those polled believe that there will be a minority Conservative Government (down slightly from 24 per cent).

• And 16 per cent believe that there will be a second Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition (up by more than double from seven per cent.

That adds up to 65 per cent of those polled expecting David Cameron to return to Downing Street as Prime Minister after the next general election.  That total is up sharply from 46 per cent, and suggests that Party members have been impressed by a better run of news from the Government and a worse from Labour - whose fortunes we look at in a special series on LeftWatch this week, which opens with Christian Guy's excellent piece today.

Abu Qatada has gone, James Wharton's EU referendum bill is here, the benefits cap is in place, the economy is gradually recovering.  Cameron is handling his Parliamentary Party better, and Ed Miliband is on the back foot over welfare and Unite.  September will be a difficult month for the Prime Minister, since the "hacking trial" opens then.  But, like the Lynton Crosby controversy, it will be a Westminster Village affair.  Overall, the big picture is much better for Cameron.

Just over 1550 people responded to the survey, of whom over 700 were Conservative Party members. The figures above are taken from the latter's views.

Take ConservativeHome's August 2013 survey

By Peter Hoskin
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Has Cameron got the right policy on internet pornography?

Has his charm offensive worked on you?

Would you welcome another Coalition between the Conservatives and Lib Dems after the next election?

These questions – as well as the usual ones, including our Cabinet rankings – are featured in ConHome's latest monthly survey. You can take the survey here.

Two in five Tory members back the Communications Data Bill - and a third oppose it

By Paul Goodman
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It would be an exaggeration to write that every Conservative born into the world alive is either a Little Authoritarian or a Little Libertarian.  But how much of one?  The result of our last monthly survey question about the Communications Data Bill (a.k.a the Snooper's Charter) may point towards an answer.

• 43 per cent of respondents agreed that "the Tory leadership should do all it can to enact the Communications Data Bill, even against the wishes of the Liberal Democrats".

• 34 per cent took the view that "the Communications Data Bill is an invasion of privacy and should not be made law."

• And 22 per cent believed that the Conservative leadership "should compromise with the Liberal Democrats to produce a version of the Bill that both sides can broadly agree with".

That last fifth of Tory respondents is quite a big slice of the whole, and is a reminder that all Conservatives don't come down on one side of the fence or the other.  Since compromise with our Coalition partner isn't always a popular option with party members, the figure indicates that a significant percentage of them find it hard to make their minds up about the bill.

However, the remaining three-quarters or so seem to have made their minds up.  And I think the results point towards a general truth - namely, that regardless of whether one agrees with them or not, libertarians make a lot of noise in proportion to their number.

Perhaps the Woolwich horror has had an impact on the figures.  However, the proportions certainly wouldn't justify any claim that Conservative members are lined up to support the bill: compromise is perhaps where the Home Office is heading in any event.  Over 700 Tory members responded to the survey - as did over 1400 readers in total.

Take ConservativeHome's June 2013 survey

By Peter Hoskin
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Should welfare be cut before defence?

Should the Communications Data Bill be enacted?

Should Samantha Cameron help shape government strategy?

These questions – as well as the usual ones, including our Cabinet rankings – are featured in ConHome's latest monthly survey. You can take the survey here.

Duncan Smith, Gove, Hague, Hammond and Grayling top the latest Cabinet league table

By Peter Hoskin
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Below is the Cabinet league table derived from our latest survey of Conservative party members. It’s rather traditional for IDS, Michael Gove and William Hague to be at the top – and for Nick Clegg, Vince Cable and Ed Davey to be at the bottom – so I’ll highlight three other things that stand out to my eyes:

• Theresa May has become markedly more popular since the survey we conducted at the end of last year. The intervening period, of course, featured her speech to the ConHome Victory 2015 conference, as well as some strong words on the ECHR and resistance to further spending cuts for her department. Another member of the “National Union of Ministers” – namely, Philip Hammond – has also performed well.
• Grant Shapps scores a meagre +12. The Tory chairmanship is still an uneasy role.    
• George Osborne has recovered some of the popularity he lost last year, perhaps as a result of a Budget that was considerably more stable than its predecessor. But he’s still outranked by Danny Alexander. Indeed, in the background figures, more Tory members (62.8%) are satisfied with the Chief Secretary to the Treasury than with the Chancellor (58.6).

Anyway, here’s the full table:

Just under 2,000 people responded to the survey, of whom over 900 were Conservative Party members. The figures above are taken from the latter's views.

Under one in seven party members want the Coalition to continue into 2015

By Paul Goodman
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And almost a third want it to end as soon as possible - some 30%, according to the latest ConservativeHome survey.

17.5% want it to end in 2014.  I'm interested to see that 37% want it to "stop shortly before the 2015 general election so the parties can set out their different plans".

That's my own view - although I think that David Cameron can prepare the way by loosening the Coalition from October 2014 onwards.

Just under 1850 people responded to the survey, of whom over 800 were Conservative Party members. The figures above are taken from the latter's views.