Deficit reduction. The EU referendum. Justice for England - top "red lines" for any future Coalition talks

By Paul Goodman
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At the end of the Daily Mail's report of a YouGov poll today, a spokesman for the pollster is quoted as saying: "When we take all factors into account, including the incumbency "bonus" likely to be enjoyed by Conservative MPs newly elected in 2010, Labour and the Conservatives both need around a 7 per cent lead in order to secure an overall majority in 2015". The comment is a reminder that our series this week on what David Cameron's negotiation red lines is timely.

Respondents to our poll have had their say on where those lines should be drawn. Here is mine. It's important to remember what would happen were the Liberal Democrats - or perhaps another minority party - to step over them and refuse to move.  Cameron would have either to back down, or break off the talks.  The consequence could be a Conservative minority government...or a Lab/Lib coalition...or even a Labour minority government. There's no way of knowing.

In the event of Cameron leading the largest party after the 2015 election, it may be that the best course will be for the Conservatives to go it alone.  But in my view, that is not a decision that can be fixed on now.  In such circumstances, a second Coalition could be the best option available to the country and the Party, if the right terms can be agreed.  And that means red lines - not, I believe, lots of little dabs on the pavement, but a few clear markings. My top three would be:

• The elimination of the structural deficit by 2017 or earlier. It may be that Vince Cable, and the Liberal Democrats as a whole, change their view on the desirability of ending the deficit swiftly: the Business Secretary's New Statesman article earlier this year hinted at such a view. This would destroy the foundation on which the present Coalition was built, and render a second one unworkable from the start - since it would have no agreed economic aim.

• The holding of an EU In-Out referendum in 2017. The EU's gradual but relentless move towards "ever-closer union" has gradually made a second referendum impossible to avoid - and right.  Furthermore, Conservative MPs would not allow Cameron to back down on the referendum commitment, given the strength of feeling in the Party.  I am less exercised by the details of a renegotiation, since the referendum will give the British people the option of voting to leave.

• Measures to rebalance the UK's political system. This is essential in both constitutional and political terms. The present settlement is unjust both to England and the Conservatives.  The Liberal Democrats have succeeded in steering reform deep into the long grass during this Parliament.  Were they to do so in a second one, the present Tory electoral disadvantage would stay set in stone - and the 2020 election would be looming into view, with little prospect of the majority that has eluded us for over 20 years.

On tax, raising the stamp duty threshold tops our "red lines" poll and restoring the 10p tax band comes last

By Paul Goodman
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I wrote yesterday that it is perhaps surprising not to see the economy or tax in the top five issues raised by respondents to our "red lines" poll.  It's therefore necessary to say today that an economic issue came in sixth.  On a scale of one to ten, in which one represents "very negotiable" and ten "non-negotiable", the statement "the structural deficit should be eliminated by 2017/2018, if not sooner" scored a eight - coming in only a fraction behind those top five issues - an In/Out EU referendum and renegotation; the reduction and equalisation of constituencies; keeping or lowering the benefits cap; keeping or lowering the immigration cap and pressing ahead with the development of shale gas.

Here are the remaining scores of economy and tax-related issues:

• Stamp duty threshold should be raised to £250,000 or higher - 7
• The inheritance tax threshold should be raised to £1 million or higher - 7
• Tax allowances should be fully transferable between married couples - 7
• Cut the 45p tax rate, raise the threshold or both - 6
• Cut the 20p tax rate, raise the threshold or both - 6
• Cut the 40p tax rate, raise the threshold or both - 6
• A 10p income tax rate should be introduced - 5

There are in some cases only marginal differences between the scores, so it follows that not too much should be read into them.  However, it's worth noting that the proposal for the restoration of the 10p income tax band, supported on this site by Robert Halfon and opposed by Andrew Lilico comes in bottom of this list.

Fewer and equal seats. The benefits and immigration cap. And shale gas. High priorities from Tory members for any Coalition talks

By Paul Goodman
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I reported yesterday that the top "red line" for Conservative Party members for any coalition negotiations with the Liberal Democrats after the 2015 election is holding the In/Out EU referendum in 2017 - after the promised renegotiation.

If these commitments are treated as one, the next four red lines in our members' poll came in as follows. On a scale of one to ten, with one representing "very negotiable" and ten representing "non negotiable", all came in at eight, with very marginal differences beween them, as follows:

• The number of constituencies should be reduced and their size equalised.

• The benefits cap should be maintained or lowered.

• The immigration cap should be maintained or lowered.

• Press ahead with the development of shale gas as swiftly as possible.

I am not at all sure that the reduction and equalisation of seats will be in the Tory manifesto, given events in this Parliament, but the priority which members give to the move reflects their frustration and anger with how the Liberal Democrats behaved.

The benefits and immigration caps are popular with members as well as voters, and their ranking reflects that.  There is unabashed enthusiasm for shale.  It's perhaps surprising not to see the economy or tax in the top five issues.  We will turn to them tomorrow.

Tory members' top "red line" for any post-2015 coalition deal is...the EU referendum & renegotiation

By Paul Goodman
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Utterly unsurprisingly, holding the promised In/Out EU referendum in 2015 was the top "red line" issue for any future Conservative/Liberal Democrat negotiations in our survey which over 800 Conservative Party members answered.  We asked respondents to list a series of issues on a scale of one to ten, with one representing "very negotiable" and ten representing "non negotiable".  Both "In-Out referendum on Britain's EU membership in 2017" and "Attempt to renegotiate Britain's relationship with the EU" came in at 8.5.

"Britain should leave the ECHR" scored seven.  I suspect that party members' priorities are the other way round in this respect from voters, given the public reaction to the Court's "votes for prisoners" rulings.  (Policy Exchange's research in Northern Lights, which looked at a series of wedge issues, found 70 per cent of respondents believing that "human rights have become a charter for the criminals and undeserving".)  Six per cent believe that a British Bill of Rights should be introduced.

Turning to the Commons, Britain's relationship with Europe is clearly a very significant issue for Conservative MPs, as the history of rebellions in this Parliament confirms and as Philip Cowley and Mark Stuart suggested on this site in May.  It's impossible to know what their view would be of any proposal to re-form the Coalition with the Liberal Democrats, but my best guess is that David Cameron would find it impossible to drop the 2017 referendum (presuming he wished to) - because Tory MPs' views on holding it are not all that different from Party members'.

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Party members want a say in any decision about a second Coalition with the Liberal Democrats in 2015

By Paul Goodman
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Recent opinion polls written up by Anthony Wells of YouGov show the Conservatives at 34, 33 and 33 per cent, and Labour at 38, 37 and 37 per cent.  Let's apply three conclusions. First, neither of the main parties is in a strong position.  Second, David Cameron has closed the gap on Ed Miliband, and may well close it further if economic recovery continues.  Third, the former has to get anywhere between ten to seven points ahead of the latter to win a majority, thanks to Britain's vote distribution - unless you buy Peter Kellner's imaginary scenario of a disproportionately good result for the Conservatives in key marginals.

In short, prudent Tories shouldn't rule out the possibility - to put it no higher - of the next election producing much the same result as the last one, and thus think ahead.  What should the Party do in such an event?  Should it take a different road from that taken in 2010, and urge the formation of a Conservative minority government?  Should it seek to come to a deal with one or more of the minor parties, such as Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionists?  Or should it follow the same path as last time, and seek to re-form the Coalition with the Liberal Democrats?  And if it makes the last choice, what should Cameron's "red lines" be?

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Conservative members still want the Coalition to end shortly before the election (and are opposed to the idea of another afterwards)

By Peter Hoskin
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Another set of not-much-change-from-last-month survey results – but we’ll note them down anyway, for completeness’ sake.

These are to do with the Coalition, its duration and whether there should be a repeat after the next election. First up, the question of when the current Coalition should end. Tory members responded much as they did last month, although there is a slight movement away from it ending this year or next, and towards it ending shortly before the general election:

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After the summer bounce, the autumn lull – our latest Cabinet league table shows little meaningful change from the last

By Peter Hoskin
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Last month, I characterised our Cabinet league table as a “summer bounce”, with stronger numbers for many of ministers listed. This month, it’s more of an autumnal lull: the overall positions are more or less the same (it’s the same top three and the same bottom three, with only a slight reordering in between), but most ministers’ approval ratings have flattened out or declined. We conducted our survey of Conservative Party members around last week’s Syria vote, so that might have made a difference – but I'm not sure whether it explains why, say, Jeremy Hunt has lost 9 points off his rating. My guess is more that the general optimism of the early summer recess has faded somewhat. Anyway, here’s the table:

> Over 2000 people responded to the survey, of which over 800 were Conservative Party members. The survey began before and ended after the Syria vote.

Over two-thirds of Tory members now believe Cameron will be Prime Minister after 2015

By Paul Goodman
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• This month, 24 per cent of respondents said that there will be a Conservative majority after the 2015 election; 24 per cent said there will be a minority Conservative Government and 19 per cent that there will be a second Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition. So just over two-thirds of respondents believed that Cameron will be Prime Minister after 2015.

• Last month, 26 per cent of respondents said that there will be such a majority; 23 per cent said there will be a minority Conservative Government and 16 per cent that there will be a second Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition. So just under two-thirds of respondents thought that Cameron will be Prime Minister after 2015.

• This month, 56 per cent of respondents say that the Coalition is good for Britain, and 38 per cent say it isn't.  Last month, those figures were 59 per cent of respondents and 35 per cent. Last month, 31 per cent of respondents said that the Coalition was good for the Conservative Party and 60 per cent that it isn't. This month, those figures are 31 per cent and 61 per cent.

Boris, Gove and May all up in our next Tory leader poll

By Paul Goodman
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• Boris is up from 21 per cent to 23 per cent.

• Michael Gove is up from 20 per cent to 22 per cent.

• Theresa May is up from 16.5 per cent to 17 per cent.

• William Hague is down from 16 per cent to 13 per cent.

• David Davis is down from 14 per cent to 11 per cent.

The three leading contenders from last month's poll have thus pulled ahead of the next two down.

Boris maintains his narrow one point lead over Gove, and May's recent advance inches further forward.

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A majority of Tory members backed missile strikes on Syria - but most of them wanted Commons approval first

By Paul Goodman
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We asked in our monthly survey, posted on this site on Wednesday: "Should Britain join the US and France in prosecuting missile strikes against the Assad regime in Syria?" Here are the responses from Conservative members:

• Yes - 12 per cent.

• Yes, but only if David Cameron receives Parliamentary assent - 18 per cent.

• Yes, but only with the approval of the United Nations - 4 per cent.

• Yes, but only with both Parliament's and the United Nations' approval - 20 per cent.

• No - 46 per cent.

In other words, nearly half of Tory member respondents were opposed to such strikes.  But they were outnumbered by those supporting them, though of the 54 per cent doing so, 42 per cent set the condition of UN approval or Parliamentary approval - or both.

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