A fisk of Rebekah Brooks's text to David Cameron - proving the terrible friendlessness of politics

By Paul Goodman
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Coupling "country supper" with "in this together" might almost have been crafted to contrast the dealings of the elites with the plight of the masses.  Rebekah Brooks managed to do so in a text to David Cameron read out at Leveson earlier today. 

It was sent during the 2009 party conference before his leader's speech. Some will go on to read it as evidence of how close he and Ms Brooks had become.  But what it really illustrates is the exploitative nature of political relationships - and the terrible friendlessness of politics.

Let's take it line by line.

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'The chillaxing DVD Dave watches crap films, plays tennis, and takes SamCam to dinner while Europe burns'

By Tim Montgomerie
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Immediately after the Budget and during the fuel panic the big attack on Cameron was that his operation wasn't very competent.

A month ago the suggestion was that he was too posh.

Now there's a rush of stories alleging that he's a bit, well, lazy...

• The most ridiculous was in the Daily Mail: "Date-night-Dave finds time to go home, put on his trendiest gear and take Sam out for a swanky dinner"! The human translation of that headline is "Husband changes after work and takes wife out for nice dinner".
• The Times (£) is also on the case. Its Saturday splash left readers with the suggestion that Cameron relaxed too much - ‘If there was a gold medal for chillaxing Dave would win it’, He watches "crap" films, plays tennis and had a few glasses of wine... on Sundays!
• More serious was an aside in Fraser Nelson's Friday column. The PM, we learnt, spends “a crazy, scary amount of time playing Fruit Ninja on his iPad”. Melissa Kite wants him to do something more productive when he chillaxes than "silly games". Horse-riding, perhaps?.

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BBC bulletins leading with Nadine Dorries' latest attack on David Cameron's leadership

By Tim Montgomerie
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Nadine Dorries has stirred it up again. In an article for the Mail on Sunday and in the interview posted above with Five Live she has predicted that the Chairman of the 1922 Committee will have received enough letters from MPs by Christmas to have triggered a vote of no confidence in David Cameron:

"According to the rules of the backbench 1922 Committee, in order for David Cameron’s position as leader to be challenged, the chairman of the committee needs to receive 46 signatures from Conservative MPs to signal a vote of no confidence.  I would guess that those signatures are already coming in and will reach 46 by Christmas."

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Cameron's ratings have collapsed, UKIP could cost the Tories 30 seats... but there is SOME good news in the opinion polls

By Tim Montgomerie
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I won't comment here on the biggest poll of the weekend - over at Majority Conservatism Paul Goodman provides a comprehensive review of Lord Ashcroft's mega poll on the political attitudes of ethnic minority Britons.

The more regular opinion polls are not good for the Conservative Party. I summarise them within today's newslinks (scroll down this page). In today's Sunday Times (£) Peter Kellner of YouGov makes for gloomy reading:

"The Prime Minister is no longer a clear asset to his party. Immediately before the Budget, 44% thought he was doing well, while 49% thought he was doing badly. His net rating, minus 5, was pretty good for a Prime Minister in mid-term. Now his rating is minus 31 (well 32%, badly 63%). Only Gordon Brown can match such a collapse in popularity, when he scrapped plans to hold a snap election in October 2007. It is not a happy precedent."

Here's how respondents to the latest YouGov poll rate Cameron (PDF):

• 42% see the PM as competent, 47% as incompetent (-5%);
• 41% see him as strong and 44% as weak (-3%);
• 42% as likeable and 46% as dislikeable (-4%);
• 39% say he's in control of his government and 47% say not (-8%);
• 23% see him as in touch, 69% as out-of-touch (-46%);

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'Tough' Cameron still 11% ahead of 'Weak' Ed Miliband in 'best PM' rating

By Tim Montgomerie
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In a speech launching the Welsh Conservatives' local election campaign today the Prime Minister will embrace the unpopularity of recent weeks and say that he has deliberately chosen to avoid the easy path. Instead he will say that he and the Coalition government are taking the tough decisions that will ensure long-term success for the country:

"You can close that Number 10 door behind you and say: this is our chance; our precious chance to change our country and we’re going to seize it. You can hear all those whispering voices saying “play it safe if you want to win a majority” and “don’t rub too many people up the wrong way” and say: “No – that is not us; that is not our party.”"

He will list welfare reform, changes to public pensions, big decisions on infrastructure and spending cuts as signs of this toughness. He'll conclude:

"We are making the hard, long-term decisions that are vital to the future of Britain. We are doing our duty by our country and that has always been the Conservative way."

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David Davis warns remoteness from working class Britain could be as toxic for Cameron as sleaze was for Major

By Tim Montgomerie
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It was only two weeks that David Cameron and George Osborne were basking in the sunlight of Barack Obama's rose garden. Today they are living through the worst period of their time in government and they've just been warned by David Davis that they are at risk of becoming defined by remoteness from lower and middle class voters.

Speaking on Radio 4's World at One, the former Shadow Home Secretary, who has regularly criticised the strategy and tactics of the man who defeated him in the race for the Tory leadership, said that the Conservative Party cannot win an election if it does not appeal to a significant minority of working class and lower middle class voters.

Margaret Thatcher, he said, appealed to the ambitions of the working class and their sense of values. The challenge of doing the same in an age of austerity is much greater, Davis conceded, but must be attempted. A lot of the working class, he said, think "they've been pushed off the escalator" and "start to resent those they still think are on the escalator or at the top of it". This feeling, he continued, "works worst against Tory politicians" because "they think we're better off... we're toffs." Mr Davis said:

"The truth of the matter is they look at the frontbench and they see them all well-dressed, well turned out, well fed and perhaps feel they're in a different world to them...

That's why that we're all in this together phrase is very important but at the moment isn't working".

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For Team Cameron, Cameron is the message

By Tim Montgomerie
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Yesterday's FT Magazine featured a long profile of David Cameron by the newspaper's Political Editor, George Parker. It contained no great revelations - six-and-a-half years in to Cameron's leadership of the Conservative Party that would be a tough ask. It did crystallise something about Project Cameron for me, however. Many of us wish the Conservative Party had a clearer message - a compelling narrative. But for Cameron and his court the man is the message: His strength, his sense of British fair play, the moderation of his Conservatism, and, yes, his ideological flexibility.

The money quote in George Parker's piece came near the end: "His supporters believe trying to define Cameron is an obsession of “columnists and political train-spotters” and strong leadership is what voters really want." Strength is one of the two key qualities that Tory strategists want to fix in the public's mind when they think of Cameron. The other is fairness. Parker writes that Cameron is never more at ease than when he's on the political turf that he occupied before the financial crash:

"He talks about wanting to reform social care for the elderly and Britain’s clunky adoption rules alongside trying to revive the economy. Although only a relatively recent convert to gay causes, he plans to legalise gay marriages. Recent “summits” were held on tackling Britain’s “booze culture” and racism in football. It is almost as if Cameron can’t wait to get back to his “compassionate Conservatism” agenda that was so rudely interrupted by the financial crash."

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Four conclusions about Cameron's 48 hours in Washington

By Tim Montgomerie
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The images below have kindly been supplied by Andrew Parsons/i-Images and must not be produced without permission.

ANDREW PARSONS/ i-IMAGES

Political boost for Cameron: Remember all that talk that Barack Obama and David Cameron wouldn't get on? It seems a long, long time ago. Last week's visit to Washington by David Cameron (and most of his key advisers) couldn't have gone much better from a presentational point of view. Cameron was seen eating hot dogs with the Commander-in-Chief who - outside of America - is still a global pin up. Britain's PM got a ride on Air Force One. Most voters will have welcomed the two leaders' modesty on foreign policy compared to the boldness of the Bush/Blair years. We all got the opportunity to admire the very beautiful Samantha and Michelle. The visit reinforced the correct idea that only one party leader in British politics has a prime ministerial aura.

ANDREW PARSONS/ i-IMAGES

A still special relationship: A lot of nonsense is spoken about the UK-US relationship but whether it's special or essential it's certainly important and after last week it is confirmed to be in robust health. We share so much culturally. Many British jobs depend upon US trade and investment (and vice versa). We co-operate militarily, diplomatically and on intelligence matters. One of the reason Britain matters in the world is that we are seen as the nation closest to Washington. The transatlantic relationship stands alongside our membership of the UN Security Council; membership of the EU; our place at the heart of the Commonwealth; a leading role in NATO; the world's fifth largest military power and, arguably, the best special forces as reasons why Britain still matters in the world... and why we matter to America. Whether America matters to the world in quite the way it did is another matter. Britain and France couldn't have fought the Libya campaign without US assistance but under America's 44th president there have been many photo opportunities but no progress on global warming, free trade or the nuclearisation of Iran.

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Cameron says he's taking the tough decisions to build a stronger, fairer Britain

By Tim Montgomerie
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Tory strategists want voters to think of two words when they think of David Cameron: Strong and Fair.

Voters already think Cameron is making the tough decisions. I don't have the exact figures to hand but a recent YouGov survey found that more than FIVE times as many voters think the Conservatives and Cameron are capable of tough decisions than think the same of Labour and Ed Miliband. That's a huge advantage.

Where more work needs to be done is in persuading people that the Conservatives are building a fairer Britain. This, of course, begs the question what we all mean by fairness. In his speech to a gathering of 400 Conservative activists in London earlier, Mr Cameron gave his definition:

"A society where fairness is real... not a free-for-all that lets people do as they wish… but an expectation that all will play their part… where what you get out depends on what you put in."

No surprise then that welfare reform was at the heart of the Conservative leader's speech:

"For years, political parties have played a short-term game. Park people on sickness benefits and take them off the unemployment figures. Push people just above the poverty line – in the pretence that you’re actually changing lives. This approach might make your government look better in the short term but you have betrayed the interests of those you’re supposed to serve. We’re choosing a different path. We're making work pay. Imposing a cap on the amount of benefits any one household can take. We're putting in place real sanctions for those who don’t work. With us, it is simple. Something for something, not something for nothing. No one should be allowed to take this country for a free ride. But you know what I’m most proud of in these welfare reform plans? It’s not the caps and the sanctions – anyone can see they need to happen unless, of course, you’re called Ed Miliband or are a member of the Labour Party. No – what I’m most proud of is the action we are taking to get people back into work."

The Prime Minister went on to claim that in public service reform, spending restraint and economic reform the Coalition isn't taking the easy path...

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"A speech by the PM has to be an event" says Janan Ganesh. He's right.

By Tim Montgomerie
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Ask anyone in Number 10 what is the Tory Party's greatest asset and they'll invariably reply "Dave". But, assuming this is true, is it sensible to use the PM quite so much? I've long argued that Mr Cameron should kept back and used sparingly for the big occasion. In the last week, however, he has made an intervention on almost every day. In the last week we've had him promoting women on boards, announcing a summit on racism in football, writing for The Sunday Times about the NHS reforms, launching an inquiry into car insurance, promoting a consultation on alcohol abuse and tomorrow he'll be speaking in Scotland about the Union. It's too much. The Economist's Janan Ganesh put it well in a tweet earlier today: "Cameron has to be wary of initiative-itis. A speech by the PM has to be an event." Hyper-activity by the PM crowds out other ministers and it gets in the way of the PM focusing on the big behind-the-scenes issues that are crucial to his government's success including party management, the detail of legislation and brokering grand bargains across the Coalition. Tony Blair warned that a PM's half-life was getting shorter and shorter because of the intense 24 hour media cycle. Cameron must not be over-exposed.