Labour are to blame for the rise of the BNP

Dan Hannan gave another great little speech last night.  Before quoting Dr Seuss (which must be a first in a victory speech) he noted how voters had done everything they could to tell the Labour Party that they wanted them out.  Voters have thrown Labour out of the mayoralty in London.  They've ousted them in Scotland and from every county council.  They've voted against Labour in Crewe and Nantwich, Glasgow East and, yesterday, in Wales.  Yet Labour still carries on, denying the country the change of government it craves.

Labour has fallen MUCH further than the Conservatives in our darkest days.  Its share of the vote was just 16% yesterday.  Across huge parts of the country Labour was in fifth place.  It is in huge financial debt to the trade unions.  It received almost no private donations in the last quarter.  Its activist base is giving up.

But one thing should shock Labour more than anything else - yesterday's two BNP victories.  I don't say this lightly but I blame Labour for the rise of the BNP.  I blame Brown for creating Nick Griffin.  I blame Labour for introducing the electoral system that has given the BNP this opportunity but much more I blame Labour for its failure to control Britain's borders... for promising a referendum on Lisbon and reneging on that promise... for a failure to get to grips with Islamic extremism... and for a failure to tackle the social causes of poverty.

The challenge for the Conservatives - who did respectably yesterday - is to learn from Labour's huge failures.  We mustn't over-promise but we must restore order to our borders, give a sense that Britain is in charge of its destiny and pursue a compassionate agenda that will give financial and structural security to the Labour heartlands - heartlands that the Brown-Blair years have so comprehensively failed.

Tim Montgomerie

> On CentreRight: The BNP is not the 'Far Right'

We may be on the verge of some of the most dramatic days in British politics...

So what is coming next? Here are five questions and answers:

Will Brown stay?  I don't think so anymore. I hope CCHQ is preparing to face Alan Johnson at the next election. With Labour falling to 20% in the polls it would be suicide for them to go into the General Election with the clunking fist as leader.

Will Balls replace Darling?  Yes and it will be a stupid thing to do (as the FT argues) that will only increase the likelihood of a challenge to Brown.

Will UKIP and Green gains boost euroscepticism and environmentalism?  No.  Commentators will dismiss strong performances by both parties as protest votes against the mainstream parties rather than positive votes in favour of pulling out of the EU/ action on the environment.

Will the BNP win seats?  The strength of UKIP may deny the BNP a breakthrough.  So my answer to the question is 'no'.  If the BNP does win seats - as David Cameron argued yesterday - we have another very, very good argument against PR.

Will the Conservatives win Lancashire?  Yes and that will be another sign of the strength of the party in the north.  I expect about 200 gains overall and a 42% vote share.  Anything above that and the party is doing very well.  I expect Labour to lose all four of its last county councils.

Tim Montgomerie

David Cameron condemns the BNP as "Nazi thugs"

On the day that BNP leader Nick Griffin announced his decision not to attend a Buckingham Palace Garden Party as guest of the BNP London Assembly member, David Cameron has condemned the party as "Nazi thugs" and "a bunch of fascists".

Speaking at the Bath and West Show in Shepton Mallet, Somerset, he responded angrily to a member of the public who said the BNP "have a point when it comes to immigration":

Jonathan Isaby

Boris says Richard Barnbrook should disinvite Nick Griffin or lose his Buckingham Palace garden party invitation

Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, has issued this public statement regarding the decision of London Assembly Member Richard Barnbrook of the BNP to take his party leader to a Buckingham Palace garden party:

On CentreRight yesterday Jonathan Isaby urged The Queen top block Mr Griffin's invitation.  Boris Johnson's intervention should spare her from the embarassment of having to entertain these racists.

Tim Montgomerie

There is nothing British about the BNP

The BNP wants to define itself - as a patriotic party concerned about jobs and housing.  I've written for The Telegraph today arguing that we must not let that happen and we need to focus on the BNP's core belief - its desire to build an all white Britain.

The BNP is making sophisticated use of new media to get its message across.  We've launched NothingBritish.com today to start something of a fightback.  This is our first product:

Harman joins MacShane's desperate attempt to link Tories and BNP

Labour's Deputy Leader Harriet Harman defended Denis MacShane's desperate attempt to link the Conservatives and the BNP:

How do we stop Britain being represented by BNP MEPs?

In today's Telegraph Charles Moore worries that the BNP could be principal beneficiaries from the expenses scandal:

His remarks about the main parties working together may allude to yesterday's FT story: Parties join forces to beat BNP.  My understanding, however, is that the Conservative Party is very anxious to avoid that impression.  Charles Moore is right.  The idea of the main parties - currently discredited in the eyes of many voters - conspiring against the BNP would be a gift to it.

A little while ago I noted that some Tory MPs were mulling a change of strategy towards the BNP.  Pasted below are the results of ConHome's survey of Tory members and their view of the BNP threat and what should be done about it: 

I have long believed that the best anti-BNP strategy was to deny them the oxygen of publicity but like the slim plurality of Tory members I no longer think that.  There is a lot of evidence pointing to an BNP breakthrough next month and we need to act before it's too late.  ConHome is working on its own anti-BNP project and that will be launching in the next fortnight.

Tim Montgomerie

1,368 Tory members voted on 22nd and 23rd April.

> Nigel Farage launches UKIP's European Elections campaign with claim that his is the true protest party and only UKIP can therefore stop the BNP making a breakthrough

BNP

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