Conservative Diary


6 Aug 2012 08:28:27

Expect a nudge or two when it comes to gambling

By Peter Hoskin
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CasinoThere’s much heat and fury about gambling at the moment, in the wake of a recent Commons report on the subject and today’s news that Brits are losing over £1 billion a year to slot machines. In response, Harriet Harman has said that New Labour erred by having a liberal attitude towards gambling regulations. The Daily Mail is warning the Coalition against the same, and urging them to cut out this “social cancer”.

In truth, gambling tends to be a difficult issue for Conservatives, as it cuts across two strains of thought in the party. There are those who feel it should be controlled, as it entrenches the social problems that surround debt and poverty. And there are those who take the more free market view that supply ought to aspire to demand, and the state has no place to intrude. It is this fundamental tension that confuses so much of David Cameron’s own “responsibility” agenda. He wants people to be responsible, but he doesn’t want to order them to be responsible.

Continue reading "Expect a nudge or two when it comes to gambling" »

2 Apr 2010 12:53:44

The bookies are still predicting a Conservative majority

Picture 30 This time last week I highlighted the fact that while the polls were suggesting that a hung parliament was on the cards, the bookmakers were still expecting a Conservative overall majority in the Commons.

Ladbrokes have just released their weekly prediction, based on the betting in seats across the country and they are broadly the same as last week (when they predicted a Conservative majority of 12):

Conservatives - 329 seats
Labour - 222 seats
Lib Dems - 63 seats

That would translate into a Conservative majority of 8 seats in the Commons.

Ladbrokes' figures have also been factored into the Times online coverage of the election, with this section of the paper's comprehensive election website showing a map with details of the bookies' expectations for every single constituency.

However, the map on the website as of now does not tally with the numbers above, with Labour up to 233 seats and the Lib Dems dwon to 56 seats. I will try and establish which numbers are more up to date. Ladbrokes' spokesman tells me that the figures above (329/222/63) are the most up to date numbers.

Jonathan Isaby

26 Mar 2010 17:18:43

Whatever the polls say, the bookies still predict a Tory overall majority

The opinion polls being published day after day at the moment are all suggesting a universal national swing which would result in a hung parliament if reproduced at the general election.

Activists I speak to in the key marginals are more bullish about the Conservative prospects and interestingly enough, the bookies agree with them.

Bookmaker Ladbrokes is running a book on every single seat in the country and based on its expectations across the country it is predicting the following result:

Conservatives - 331 seats
Labour - 221 seats
Lib Dems - 63 seats

That would translate into a Conservative majority of 12 seats.

Ladbrokes will be publishing their prediction based on this measure every Friday until polling day.

Jonathan Isaby

25 Jan 2010 17:51:37

Hague, Boris and Osborne are favourites to be next Tory leader

Interesting that Rory Stewart is at number five in this Ladbrokes list. He's obviously become a media darling very quickly.

That I'm at 37 suggests the list might be a little crazy! I'm glad to be sat alongside Iain Dale.

  1. William Hague     5/1
  2. Boris Johnson     5/1
  3. George Osborne     5/1
  4. Michael Gove     16/1
  5. Rory Stewart     16/1
  6. Liam Fox     20/1
  7. Nick Herbert     20/1
  8. Jeremy Hunt     20/1
  9. Edward Vaizey     33/1
  10. Daniel Hannan     33/1
  11. Chris Grayling     40/1
  12. David Davis     50/1
  13. Andrew Lansley     50/1
  14. Andrew Mitchell     50/1
  15. Phillip Hammond     50/1
  16. Theresa May     50/1
  17. Justine Greening     50/1
  18. Jesse Norman     50/1
  19. Alan Duncan     66/1
  20. Zac Goldsmith     66/1
  21. Caroline Spelman     100/1
  22. Ken Clarke     100/1
  23. Malcom Rifkind     100/1
  24. David Willetts     100/1
  25. Oliver Letwin     100/1
  26. Francis Maude     100/1
  27. Michael Portillo     100/1
  28. John Redwood     100/1
  29. Iain Duncan Smith     100/1
  30. Dominic Grieve     100/1
  31. Damian Green     100/1
  32. Shaun Bailey     100/1
  33. Chloe Smith     100/1
  34. Sir George Young     100/1
  35. Andrew Feldman     200/1
  36. John Bercow     200/1
  37. Tim Montgomerie     200/1
  38. Iain Dale     200/1
  39. Nadine Dorris     200/1
Tim Montgomerie

4 May 2009 19:52:01


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