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Wow! ICM has the Conservative and Labour level. But is the poll a rogue?

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By Paul Goodman
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Here are the figures from the Guardian:

Conservatives: 36 per cent (+ 7).

Labour: 36 per cent (no change).

Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent (+ 1).

UKIP: 15 per cent (- 7).

The Guardian's Patrick Wintour writes that:

  • This is the best result for the Tories in an ICM poll since they led by 3 points before George Osborne's politically disastrous budget in March 2012.
  • "The fall in the UKIP share may reflect both the recent comparative decline in publicity for Nigel Farage as well as Downing Street's efforts to neutralise UKIP's appeal."
  • "Liberal Democrats will be concerned at the absence of any sign in the ICM poll that its overall vote is picking up, despite the decline in UKIP support."

Three additional points:

  • As Wintour says, UKIP is likely to argue that "the fall-off in support has not been reflected in most other polls". (At the weekend, four online showed UKIP support in the high teens).
  • YouGov's findings differ from ICM's. Its daily online poll shows Labour leading by about 11 points - a hardening in its poll ratings.
  • However, the Independent's poll of polls recently found a fall in the size of Labour's lead.  The paper reported that it fallen "from 13 to six points in the past four months".

Finally, remember that all other things being equal (which they admittedly never are), David Cameron needs a lead of some 7-10 points over Labour to win in 2015.


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