The reshuffle: A little local difficulty with male Conservative MPs

By Paul Goodman
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The way reshuffles work is roughly as follows:

• Downing Street lets it be known that a shuffle will happen about a week in advance.

• Journalists and politicians look down the list of Ministers and identify the longest-serving.

• They repeat these names to each other as likely shuffle victims.

• These names duly find their way into the press and on to the blogs.

• Number 10 then gives the weekend papers a firmer steer on those who will be dismissed.

• This is often the first that those who are about to be dismissed have heard about it.

• These names then appear alongside those that have done so already, to general confusion.

• The Prime Minister then summons those who are about be dismissed to his Commons room.

• He tells them that they're doing a first-rate job from which he is sacking them.

• Details of some of these meetings end up in the press, not by Number 10's design.

• Those who are promoted aren't always grateful and those who are sacked are often angry.

• A culture of loyalty once insulated the leader from that anger, but it is rather frayed.

• The same culture also bolstered gratitude, or at least restrained further expectation.

• Ambitious 2010 intake members who weren't promoted last year will be hopeful.

• Unhappy former Shadow Ministers left out in 2010 will see this as their last chance.

• There are 17 LibDem Commons Ministers (counting whips).

• This means that there are 17 fewer Ministerial posts for Conservative MPs.

• The Prime Minister also has an aspiration of making a third of Tory Ministers women.

• There are 48 Conservative women MPs out of 304 Conservative MPs in total.

• It follows that most Conservative MPs are men.

• Cameron's aspiration therefore raises that hoary old debate about promotion on merit.

• This Government's reshuffles are therefore even more problematic than usual.

• And this one has its own particular problems, as we see.

• The headlines after next week's moves, if they happen, will be all about women.

• But when it comes to backbench reaction, keep your eye on those men.