Almost two-thirds of Tory members believe Cameron will be Prime Minister after 2015

By Paul Goodman
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The figures are as follows from our latest monthly survey -

• 26 per cent believe that there will be a Conservative majority (up from 15 per cent).

• 23 per cent of those polled believe that there will be a minority Conservative Government (down slightly from 24 per cent).

• And 16 per cent believe that there will be a second Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition (up by more than double from seven per cent.

That adds up to 65 per cent of those polled expecting David Cameron to return to Downing Street as Prime Minister after the next general election.  That total is up sharply from 46 per cent, and suggests that Party members have been impressed by a better run of news from the Government and a worse from Labour - whose fortunes we look at in a special series on LeftWatch this week, which opens with Christian Guy's excellent piece today.

Abu Qatada has gone, James Wharton's EU referendum bill is here, the benefits cap is in place, the economy is gradually recovering.  Cameron is handling his Parliamentary Party better, and Ed Miliband is on the back foot over welfare and Unite.  September will be a difficult month for the Prime Minister, since the "hacking trial" opens then.  But, like the Lynton Crosby controversy, it will be a Westminster Village affair.  Overall, the big picture is much better for Cameron.

Just over 1550 people responded to the survey, of whom over 700 were Conservative Party members. The figures above are taken from the latter's views.