Almost half of Tory members believe Cameron will be Prime Minister after the next election

By Paul Goodman
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According to the latest ConservativeHome survey -

• 24% of believe that there will be a minority Conservative Government.

• 15% believe that there will be a Conservative majority.

• And 7% believe that there will be a second Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition.

Add those figures up, and they suggest that Party members are more confident that David Cameron will return to Downing Street after 2015 than might have been imagined.

It's interesting to set them beside one of our survey's other main findings - that a third of Tory members want an electoral pact with UKIP for the 2015 general election.

• Conservative members are divided on whether the Coalition is good for the country. 47% say it is.  47% say it isn't.

• But they aren't divided at all over whether it's good for the Party.  They tend to think it isn't - by 71% to 23%.

Just under 1850 people responded to the survey, of whom over 800 were Conservative Party members. The figures above are taken from the latter's views.