Only 51% of Tories support withdrawal from the European Union - and 26% would consider voting UKIP

By Matthew Barrett
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A poll for tomorrow's Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday, conducted by ComRes, reveals an important fact: Tory voters are not strongly united behind withdrawal from the European Union.

The poll - which puts overall voting intentions at 32% Conservative and 41% Labour - shows that, despite 46% compared to 30% of voters saying they would vote to leave the EU, if a referendum was held tomorrow, only 51% of Conservative voters said they would vote to leave. By comparison, 42% of Labour voters, and 39% of Lib Dem voters would vote to exit the EU. Overall, with "don't know" answers excluded, the ComRes poll suggests a European referendum would result in a 61-39% vote to leave. 

On a similar note, a narrow plurality of voters disagree with the statement: "Leaving the European Union would be bad for the British economy in terms of lost jobs and trade". 40% disagreed with that statement, as opposed to 36% who agreed with it. As with an in/out referendum, the Conservative vote is quite similar to the national result: indeed, 37% of Tories thought leaving the EU would be bad for jobs and trade - more than the figure for the population as a whole. 43% of Labour voters, and 56% of Lib Dem voters felt the same way. This suggests a large percentage of the Eurosceptic vote in opinion polls does not identify with the big three political parties.

But perhaps the most important fact, as a reminder of the Eurosceptic threat to a Tory majority, is that 26% of Tory voters would consider voting UKIP. The following table from ComRes shows the answer to the question "Which, if any, of these parties would you seriously consider voting for at a General Election if it were held tomorrow? Please indicate all that apply":

On the general economic direction of the country, 26% of voters trust David Cameron and George Osborne "to make the right decisions about the economy", compared to 22% feeling that way about Eds Miliband and Balls. However, if the "disagree" figures are taken into account (55% disagree Cameron and Osborne can be trusted; 51% disagree Miliband and Balls can be trusted), the two economic teams are tied on a net economic trust percentage of -29.