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Conservative vote share at lowest with ICM since the election. Labour's at highest since before the Iraq War

By Paul Goodman
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The headline figures are a Conservative six-point fall from 39% to 33% and a Labour five-point rise from 36% to 41%.  The Guardian's headline is "Conservatives turn three-point opinion poll lead into eight-point deficit."

The paper adds:

"But the detail of the poll does not suggest a sea change in public opinion. On the crucial question of economic competence, in particular, the government remains comfortably ahead – with Cameron and Osborne trusted to run the economy properly by 44% of respondents, with 31% believing Labour leader Ed Miliband and his shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, would provide more effective financial management."

However, these figures suggest that there has been a sharp change of mood post-budget.  We will see whether it lasts.  But if it does so until mid-May, it may just finish off Boris - whose poll lead has also contracted.  YouGov today found that he now leads Livingstone by only two points.

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