Which of the following factors are the biggest threat to Tory chances at the next election?

By Tim Montgomerie
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• Public opposition to continuing spending cuts
• Tax rises on ordinary families
• The growth of UKIP as a vehicle for disillusioned Conservative and Eurosceptic voters
• A suspicion that the Conservative Party is on the side of the wealthy rather than the ordinary worker
• Opposition from The Sun, Mail and other newspapers
• BBC bias
• Sluggish economic growth
• Disunity in Tory ranks
• Problems in the NHS
• A change of Labour leader, for example to Yvette Cooper
• The boundary changes are not introduced into law
• Increasingly unhappy relations with the Liberal Democrats that means they will not not want to form another coalition with the Conservatives in the event of another hung parliament
• Too much caution from David Cameron in ordering the Tory machine to fight and therefore oust Liberal Democrat MPs
• Lack of Tory progress in Scotland
• Lack of Tory progress in northern England
• The lack of a compelling big Tory message
• Too much focus on issues like gay marriage and House of Lords reform
• Broken promises on policies like the third runway at Heathrow
• David Cameron neglecting traditional Tory beliefs
• Any donor and sleaze scandals
• High levels of immigration
• High energy bills
• A failure to deliver green policies
• British soldiers getting involved in more overseas wars
• Inadequate party funds
• Declining party membership so there are fewer activists to deliver leaflets

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