Only 23% of Tory members expect an outright Tory majority after next election

By Tim Montgomerie
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Most Tory members (54% over 30%) agree with the statement "the Budget produced some bad headlines in the short-run but its overall effect will be to boost growth and that will be good for Tory chances at the next election". But if they think the Budget is a long-term boost for the economy in the long-term they've soured towards George Osborne...

The Chancellor's net satisfaction rating is down from +43% at the end of last year to just +7% now. One of the lasting effects of the last week's political car crash may be a terrible dent in George Osborne's reputation for political tactics and strategy. Tory MPs are shocked at the mishandling of the 50p, granny tax and pasty tax issues.

The pessimism about the last week means declining confidence that the Conservatives will still be in power after the next election...

The 62% total includes...

• 23% who think there'll be an outright Tory majority;
• 23% who think there'll be a minority Tory government;
• 16% who think there'll be another LibDem/ Tory coalition.

On the subject of Tory prospects at the next election I recommend Mehdi Hasan's piece in the latest edition of the New Statesman:

"The simple truth is that Cameron needs to increase the Tory vote share at the next election if he is to secure a parliamentary majority. But not since 1974 has an incumbent prime minister pushed up his party's share of the vote. It was beyond the ability of Margaret Thatcher (in 1983 and 1987) and Tony Blair (2001 and 2005) and as a leading psephologist, John Curtice of Strathclyde University, points out: "Cameron is no Thatcher or Blair. If you look at his leader ratings, he is basically an average prime minister . . . He doesn't enthuse people.""

This uphill struggle was outlined by Stephan Shakespeare on Tuesday and is the motivation behind ConHome's Majority pages.

OTHER POLL FINDINGS...

...ON THE BUDGET...

• George Osborne needs to cut spending faster and avoid having to introduce extra taxes, for example, on pensioners and hot pasties: Agree 81%, Disagree 16%
• The Budget has given the dangerous impression that the Conservatives are more interested in the rich than the ordinary voter: Agree 65%, Disagree 28%
• The Government is doing all it can to deliver a strong economy by the time of the next election: Agree 43%, Disagree 44%

ON POLITICAL DONATIONS...

• There should be no limits on the amount of money individuals can give to a political party as long as the donations are open and declared: Agree 55%, Disagree 40%
• Downing Street and Chequers should not be used to entertain donors who give to the Conservative Party: Agree 58%, Disagree 38%
• Taxpayers' money should go to essential public services and not to political parties: Agree 92%, Disagree 5%

These poll findings were written up in today's Times (£). More poll findings will be released over coming days. 1,898 Tory members took part in the survey yesterday.