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Two weeks of sustained assault on the Prime Minister's character produce almost no change in the opinion polls

By Tim Montgomerie
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For those who were doing important things over the weekend - like watching the golf - I republish the before and after Hackgate graphic, summarising polling from YouGov. Daily polling is so useful at times like this as we don't have to rely on monthly polls which cannot by their nature give us much clue as to whether specific events are moving opinion. It's very hard to argue that Hackgate is changing voters' minds about the Conservative Party or David Cameron. His personal ratings from Yougov haven't budged.

There are two monthly polls out tonight. ICM for The Guardian has the Conservatives 1% ahead, 37% to 36%. Populus for The Times (£) has Labour 5% ahead, 39% to 34%. Populus find that many voters think less of Cameron but, rather uselessly, don't have overall numbers for whether Cameron is still seen as the best leader. ICM do have such numbers and confirm the YouGov finding that Cameron is still seen as the most effective leader. 

Hackgate isn't Watergate.

I reflected in today's Times (£) on Ed Miliband's fortnight in the sun. This was my conclusion:

"Mr Cameron cannot be complacent. The hacking affair has raised concerns about his judgment and Downing Street’s operational effectiveness. But the next election will be decided on the economy, and three times as many of the Conservatives’ target voters trust him to deliver prosperity than trust Mr Miliband. Until Ed Miliband detoxifies Labour’s economic reputation I will still regard him as a failing leader."

10pm Matthew update: YouGov for the Sun has the parties at:

  • Con 37% (+1)
  • Lab 42% (no change)
  • Lib 9% (-2)


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