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UKIP gets second preference of one third of Tory members

Tim Montgomerie

In the most recent ConservativeHome survey I asked Tory members to say how they'd vote under the Alternative Vote.

I added some extra filters to this survey to triple check that the survey wasn't being gamed. I only counted the votes of (a) people who were on the original ConHome panel when it was created in 2005 from various Tory membership lists and correctly predicted the outcome of the Cameron/ Davis contest; (b) who still identify themselves as Tory members; and (c) said, this time last year that they were quite or very satisfied with David Cameron. This reduced the sample size to just 505 people*.

I am sorry that my technical inabilities mean I wasn't able to deliver consistency on colours in the pie charts below.

HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR FIRST PREFERENCE?

Screen shot 2011-04-02 at 20.14.26

  • On 1st preference 88.5% said they would vote Conservative.
  • 10.1% said they would vote UKIP.
  • 0.8% would vote Lib Dem.
  • 0.4% would vote Green.
  • Oddly, 0.2% (one person) would vote Labour.
  • Not one vote would go to the BNP, English Democrats or nationalists.

HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR SECOND PREFERENCE?

Screen shot 2011-04-02 at 20.22.16

  • A large plurality (44.4%) of respondents wouldn't use their second preference.
  • 34.5% would vote UKIP.
  • 8.7% would vote Conservative (which suggests about one-in-ten Tory members are ready to use AV to put UKIP as their first preference - something they wouldn't think a safe option under first-past-the-post - and then put Conservatives as their second preference).
  • 5.9% would vote Lib Dem.
  • 3% English Democrats.
  • 1.2% Green.
  • 0.8% Labour.
  • 0.8% (four people) BNP.
  • 0.6% nationalist.

A survey of Conservative voters by YouGov for Channel 4 - published yesterday - found a similar percentage would choose UKIP as their second preference (27%) but, compared to this survey of Tory members, many more would back the Liberal Democrats (41%).

HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR THIRD PREFERENCE?

Screen shot 2011-04-02 at 20.33.09

  • By the time we are down to third preferences we discover that 71.5% have decided not to bother.
  • The English Democrats receive 9.5% of third preferences.
  • UKIP and the Lib Dems both get 4.8% (24 votes each).
  • The Greens get 2.8%, Conservatives 2.6%, BNP 2.0% (10 votes), nationalist parties 1% and Labour 0.8%.

* If I take two of the triple protections off and just look at the votes of people who self-identify themselves as Tory members the results aren't that different. 42.2% wouldn't use their second preference, for example, 33.8% would vote UKIP, 9.6% Conservative and 7.6% Liberal Democrat.

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