As we move towards the AV referendum, some good news for the Yes campaign

by Paul Goodman

If a week's a long time in politics, almost three months is an eternity.  But there's some good news for the Yes campaign this evening.  A ComRes poll of the question that will be on the AV referendum ballot paper found that -

40% said yes. (Up four.)

30% said no. (No change.)

30% said "don't know". (Down four.)

That "don't know" block is big enough to render all predictions obsolete.  The learned Anthony Wells of YouGov writes that "there isn’t really a big change since ComRes asked the same question a month ago".  However, he also adds that "both questions have shown a significant shift towards AV over the last fortnight. Momentum seems to have shifted in the Yes campaign’s direction."

What's he mean by both questions?  He's referring both to the ComRes question and to YouGov's own.  As he reminds his readers, "there’s a noticable difference between the results produced by the YouGov question that summarises the systems and asks how people would vote in the referendum, and the question here that asks people to say yes or no to the question that will be asked in the referendum."

All to play for.