An overview of recent opinion polls shows Labour still trailing on economy and 'best PM' ratings

Tim Montgomerie

ConservativeHome doesn't post on every opinion survey anymore. It's not healthy to become obsessed with every twist and turn in the polls. I've stated my expectation that the Tories will be 20% behind by the end of this year but then, fingers crossed, the G.R.A.N.D. re-election strategy should start to turn things round.

Occasionally, however, we will take a look at the overall opinion picture. Here are some things of recent note...

LABOUR LEAD VARIES FROM 4% TO 11%

• Labour's best lead (11%) came overnight from Angus Reid and at the same time YouGov put the lead at just 4%. Earlier in the week we had Labour leads of 4% from ICM and 10% from Ipsos-MORI.

54% DISAPPROVE OF THE GOVERNMENT'S PERFORMANCE, 34% APPROVE

• The numbers are from YouGov:

CAMERON STILL MOST POPULAR LEADER BUT HIS ADVANTAGE IS DIMINISHING

• Asked by ICM who they think would be the best Prime Minister, 38% opt for Cameron and only 25% for Ed Miliband. Nick Clegg gets the nod from 12%.
• According to YouGov 45% think Cameron is doing well and 48% think he is doing badly. This is a much better figure than Ipsos MORI which found 14% more voters were dissatisfied with Cameron than were satisfied. Cameron is the most ‘liked’ leader, according to Ipsos MORI. 47% of the public liked him compared to 40% liking Clegg and 36% liking Miliband. Labour is the most liked party, at 45%, with 40% liking the Lib Dems, and the Conservative Party trailing on 37%.
• Ed Miliband's ratings are on the up. His well/badly deficit under YouGov has closed from 11% to 6% in the last month.
• Nick Clegg's deficit has closed even faster but is still poor. 34% (+6%) think he is doing well. 57% (-5%) think badly. The LibDem leader won't probably thank The Sun for discovering earlier this month that he was second only to Hague as Tory voters' next choice as PM.

ECONOMY IS TOP ISSUE FOR VOTERS IN ALL PARTIES...

• ...The Economist noted, however, interesting differences in second and third priorities among the supporters of different parties (as measured by Ipsos MORI). Controlling immigration will be important if David Cameron is to keep Tory members happy:

DESPITE RESERVATIONS ABOUT SPEED OF GOVERNMENT CUTS, CONSERVATIVES ARE STILL MOST TRUSTED ON THE ECONOMY AND ED BALLS' RATINGS ARE VERY POOR

• By 53% over 24% people are expecting the economy to get worse over the next 12 months (Ipsos MORI):
• 51% told YouGov that cuts were too deep and too fast, compared to 37% who think they are the right thing. Despite this 38% think the Conservatives are most likely to run the economy well compared to 28% who think the same of Labour.
• ComRes for The Independent found a similar trust-on-the-economy problem for Labour: "Only 18% of people trust Mr Miliband to sort out the country's economic problems and only 14% Mr Balls"

AHEAD OF GEORGE OSBORNE'S BUDGET 85% WANT FUEL TAX RISE CANCELLED

• YouGov for The Sunday Times found that 85% want the looming increase in fuel duty to be cancelled. By 60% to 32% voters told The Sun that it was more important to keep fuel prices low than tackle the deficit.
• 49% think the 50p tax band should be made permanent but a surprisingly solid number (33%) think it should come down eventually.

THE AV VOTE

• Three out of four polls say that the British people would say "Yes to AV" if they voted today.