Both those who voted Lib Dem and those who considered voting Lib Dem are less likely to do so next time

Tim Montgomerie

Not the best of graphics, I admit, but it makes, I hope, an important point. There are some big factors weighing Nick Clegg down as he ponders the future. In case you can't read the text on the weights:

Only 54% of people who voted LibDem in May expect to so again.

Three times as many people who voted LibDem in May think the party has changed for the worst since entering government (44%) than think it has changed for the better (14%).

51% of LibDem voters want a Labour govt (27%) after the next election or a Labour/LibDem coalition (24%).

The findings are contained in another of Lord Ashcroft's periodic surveys of the political scene. He has also recently surveyed opinion in the marginal seats held by Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne and voter perceptions of the Labour Party.

The hope for Clegg is that by entering government he has a big opportunity to address the biggest factor that stopped floating voters from supporting the Liberal Democrats; "It was a wasted vote / they couldn’t win". 27% held back from voting for Clegg's party because of this. 68% of "LibDem Considerers" agree that "by entering a coalition government with the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats have shown they are prepared to take real responsibility, not just oppose from the sidelines". Overall, however, the 25% of LibDem considerers who are more likely to support Clegg next time are outnumbered by the 39% who are less likely to do so.This number may change as the economy picks up. It may, however, gets worse as the cuts bite.

Interestingly on every policy area, both May's LibDem voters and LibDem considerers think that LibDem MPs have either made no difference or made things worse since entering government. Of all policies, it is on tuition fees that they are thought to have made least positive impact of all:

I've hardly done justice to what, I guess, is the biggest ever (publicly available) opinion poll on the Liberal Democrats' electoral prospects. 3,000 people were surveyed in total and eight focus groups were held in LibDem seats. Download the full PDF if you wish to examine the enormous detail.

> More coverage in the Sunday Telegraph

PS In an Ipsos-MORI poll for tmrw's News of the World 61% of voters say they regard Nick Clegg as untrustworthy.