100 Days: The state of public opinion

By Tim Montgomerie

Throughout this week ConHome will be reflecting on the Coalition's first 100 days in power. Today we look at the Coalition's popularity.

The Tories have gained since the formation of the Coalition and stand at 42% in the latest YouGov poll. The LibDems have declined to 12% to 15% (although do a little better with other pollsters). Labour, without a leader, remain competitive in the mid-30s.

Approval of the Coalition has slowly declined since it was formed. The YouGov chart below starts near the end of June and misses the fact that - in its honeymoon - the Coalition had 48% approving and just 27% disapproving. It's now 41% approving and 39% disapproving.

ComRes has found a similar turning away from the idea of coalition government. In May voters endorsed the idea that "Britain was better off with a coalition government than it would have been if either the Conservatives or Labour had won the election outright" by 45% to 43%. It's now rejected by 50% to 36%. That, as Janet Daley blogged, could be good for the anti-AV campaign.

The Mail yesterday published a comprehensive poll that provided mixed results. 57% of voters thought the Coalition was "disappointing" but 52% thought it "effective". 68% said Cameron was performing better than expected or as they expected.

Tory members remain very supportive of the Coalition, however. 72% think the Coalition is a good thing for the nation and 62% think it is good for the party. Answering a different question Liberal Democrat members offered a similar approval rating for their own party leadership. 71% saying the Liberal Democrats were on the right track.

It's too early to make any sweeping judgments on these figures. The cuts haven't bitten yet and we haven't seen the impact of the new Labour leader (something Tory strategists think might help their cause). What is clear, however, is that a third of LibDem voters have deserted their former party. These are almost certainly left-leaners who are unlikely return to the yellow colours without very good reasons.

> TOMORROW: The radical 100 days