Ipsos-Mori poll: "Late surge" in marginals now points to a narrow Conservative majority

The final Ipsos-Mori poll of marginals for Reuters is showing a 7% swing from Labour to the Conservatives - enough to give the party a narrow overall Commons majority.

The figures for the poll - conducted across 57 Labour-held constituencies in which the Conservatives need a swing of between 5 percent and 9 percent to win - are:

Conservatives - 36% (+1)
Labour - 36% (-2)
Lib Dems - 20% (-1)  

Comparisons are with the equivalent poll from last week.

1,004 adults were interviewed between April 30th and May 2nd.

More details on the Ipsos Mori website.

5.30pm update: Ipsos Mori has issued the following clarification:

"The last of our polls in key marginal constituencies, Ipsos MORI’s new poll for Reuters points suggests that the Conservatives are inching towards a majority with a 7% swing from 2005 in these key battleground constituencies. However, given that national polls are suggesting the Conservatives are more likely to lose seats to the Liberal Democrats than gain from them, this majority is not necessarily guaranteed."

Jonathan Isaby