YouGov puts the Tories at 41% and 10% ahead

Tonight's YouGov poll for The Sun gives the Conservatives a 10% lead. It follows polls from ICM which gave the Conservatives a 4% lead and Opinium which also gave the Conservatives a 10% lead. I repeat my advice to keep focused on the trend. The ConHome Poll of Polls - a crude average of the last five polls - puts the Tories 9% ahead. This time last week the Tories were 7.4% ahead. The week before that 5.6%.

Regular readers of ConHome will know that I defended YouGov when it was showing a very narrow Tory lead and I'm pleased it is now pointing to an election-winning Tory lead. There's a long way to go but this is a good place for the Conservatives on the eve of 'Declaration Day'.

Tim Montgomerie

8am Tuesday: More details from the YouGov/Sun poll.

62% disapprove of the Government's record to date with just 24% approving.

The economy, immigration and health are the top three issues for voters: