Conservative Diary

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Tories 5% ahead in TNS poll

TNSBMRB The new poll from TNS BMRB shows a tightening race but I advise you to keep looking at the trend and the ConHome crude average of the last five polls (at the bottom of the graphic) helps to do that.

On the subject of polling it looks like The Telegraph is up to its usual tricks. YouGov recently stopped polling for The Telegraph and left for The Sun (and The Sunday Times). The Telegraph's response, it appears, is to question YouGov's reliability. Rather than wait for The Telegraph to do its stuff in tmrw's newspaper, YouGov's Peter Kellner has pre-buttaled via the internet.

This, I think, is the key section of Kellner's blog:

"Comparing the average of our March results with those of our established rivals (ICM, Ipsos-MORI, ComRes, TNS), I calculate that the figures are:

  • YouGov: Con 37%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 18%
  • Other companies: Con 38%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 20%

The remarkable thing, given the variety of methods employed, is how close we are, not how far apart."

The new TNS poll is very close to YouGov's poll of last night which had the race at 38/32/19.

Tim Montgomerie

In the interests of full disclosure: YouGov's CEO Stephan Shakespeare is a part-owner of ConHome and recently wrote about YouGov's polling for CentreRight.

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