Seven Eight out of eight pollsters predict Tory majority

The predictions are given to the Independent on Sunday:

• Andrew Hawkins, ComRes: Con majority 32
• Ben Page, Ipsos-MORI: Con 25 seats short of overall majority See update below.
• Andrew Cooper, Populus: Con majority of 10+
• Peter Kellner, YouGov: Con majority 20-30
• Robert Salvoni, Harris Interactive: Con majority 2-10
• Andy Morris, Angus Reid: Con majority 40-50
• Martin Boon, ICM Research: Con majority 20
• Johnny Heald, Opinion Research Business: Con majority 40+

There were four overnight polls, giving the Conservatives leads of 7%, 7%, 8% and 8%. In his Spectator column, James Forsyth said last week that CCHQ believed they needed a lead of 5% for victory.

Tim Montgomerie

12.15pm: In a comment on UK Polling Report Ben Page said he thought the Independent wanted a projection based on current polls. He actually agrees with the seven other pollsters that the Tories will win a majority.