Poll of marginals points to Tory victory

Two other national polls last night suggested Tory leads of 6% and 9%. CCHQ will be most encouraged by a Crosby/Textor poll of 100 marginals - reported in The Telegraph - which suggests the Conservatives ARE on course for a working majority.

ConHome is taking Stephan Shakespeare's advice and waiting until 48 to 72 hours after tonight's first election debate before drawing any conclusions about trends in public opinion. Only tonight will, I think, voters begin to switch on to the election choice. As Guido blogs, Cameron and Clegg go into the gladitorial contest as big favourites to succeed.

Tim Montgomerie