YouGov/Sun puts Tories 5% ahead

It will be interesting to see if the Conservatives pick up a little in the next few days. I agree with James Forsyth, the Tories have had a good 48 hours. The Trevor McDonald programme, the Lewisham event, the strong attack on Labour's union links, the Government's u-turn on the dog tax and, most importantly, the EU's questioning of Labour's deficit strategy.

There's still a long way to go, however. The polls will fluctuate a lot - particularly because of the debates.  But the campaign feels more solid tonight than one week ago.

Tim Montgomerie