Conservative Diary

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Three opinion polls tonight...

Express The first comes from The Express newspaper which begins a weekly survey with 'Opinium Research', run by a former YouGov employee.

It has the Conservatives on 37% (down 2% on a week ago), Labour on 30% (up 1%) and the Liberal Democrats on 16% (also up 1%).

Nearly 2,000 voters were questioned from 5th to 8th March.

10pm update: The YouGov poll for tomorrow's Sun has the parties on:

Conservatives - 39% (+1)
Labour - 34% (+1)
Lib Dems - 16% (-1)

We also still await a Populus poll for The Times of marginal seats.

11.15pm: The Times/ Populus poll carried out in 100 marginals held by Labour finds both the Tories and Labour at 38%. "That amounts," reports The Times, "to a swing of about 6.7 per cent to the Tories from Labour since 2005 in those seats." The Tories would be on the verge of a parliamentary majority but not guaranteed.

8am, Tuesday morning. Further thoughts on The Times' poll findings from a CCHQ source:

  1. In the seats covered by this poll, Labour led the Conservatives at the last election by 14%. If it is 38/38 now, that represents a very substantial swing to the Conservatives.
  2. This poll covers only the Lab-Con battleground and therefore omits the large number of Lib Dem seats that are key Conservative targets. The national opinion polls currently suggest a substantial swing (6% technically) from Lib Dem to Conservative, on the basis of which - together with the almost 100 seats the Times poll says we would gain from Labour - we would gain comfortably enough Lib Dem seats to form a majority government.
  3. This poll confirms what every other single poll in the battleground has said  - that we are doing even better in the battleground than we are nationally. (2% bigger swing, in this case, than the latest national polls suggest).
  4. This poll says we would win 97 seats. Even this (not counting the Lib Dem gains on top of this)  would be the largest number of seats gained by the Conservatives in any general election since 1931 (previous highest, 87 total gains in 1950).‬

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