Tory lead down to 5% in Ipsos/MORI survey

The Conservatives are on 37% and Labour on 32% in MORI's first poll for The Telegraph since YouGov left for News International. Labour might actually have more seats if these vote shares were replicated on polling day. In reality the Tories are likely to have more seats because the party is expected to perform relatively well in target seats.

The Tories also need to do some rapid expectations management for the election debates:

"Fifty three per cent think Mr Cameron will gain most public support as a result of the three live broadcasts, compared to 20 per cent for Mr Brown and 12 per cent for Mr Clegg"

The last thing you want is to go into the debate with 53% of voters expecting you to win. It's almost impossible to exceed such high expectations.

Ipsos MORI interviewed 1,533 voters from 19 to 22 February.

Tim Montgomerie