Latest Angus Reid poll has more evidence of the Tories getting a bigger swing in the seats which will decide the election

Political Betting has this afternoon published its latest Angus Reid poll, which puts the parties on the following standings:

• Conservatives - 38% (-2)
• Labour - 26% (no change)
• Lib Dems - 19% (+1)

Comparisons are with the most recent Angus Reid poll and the numbers compute into a Conservative majority of 24 in the Commons according to UK Polling Report's swing calculator.

HOWEVER, extrapolating their figures from the 150 most vulnerable Labour seats, Angus Reid puts the vote share across those constituencies as:

• Conservatives - 42%
• Labour - 28%
• Lib Dems - 15%

This equates to a national swing compared with the 2005 election of 4.5% higher than demonstrated by the overall poll across the country.

This backs up the position stated in recent days by The Guardian's Tom Clark, Daniel Finkelstein of The Times and blogged elsewhere today by YouGov's Peter Kellner that the Conservatives will indeed do better than the uniform national swing would suggest - because there is indeed a bigger swing to the Tories in the battleground seats.

Jonathan Isaby