Immigration could be the issue that ensures a decisive Conservative victory

An important YouGov poll, appearing in The Sunday Times, and commissioned by MigrationWatch suggests that a strong line on immigration might be decisive for the Conservatives at the next election. I quote from the MigrationWatch press release:

"The poll found that 44% in Labour held marginals would be more likely (23% much more likely) to vote Conservative if David Cameron were to say that a Conservative government would reduce immigration to 50,000 or below in order to keep the UK population below 70 million. Only 5% in these seats were less likely (2% much less likely) to vote Conservative in these circumstances.  In Lib Dem held seats the response was almost the same."

The Conservatives don't need to say too much more and they certainly don't need to shout as loud as Michael Howard in 2005 but the issue could firm up the party's prospects and give them a key retail message for doorsteps.

CCHQ is obviously aware of this and turned up the volume last weekend with interventions from David Cameron and Chris Grayling on immigration.  Since 2005 another million people have arrived in Britain and the BNP has exploited voter anxieties at the scale of change - a scale of change to which the electorate has never consented.

At the end of last year I listed five reasons why Cameron was more likely than his predecessor to succeed with an immigration message.  I'll add a sixth tonight: Head of Field Operations at CCHQ, Stephen Gilbert, oversees such a well-oiled machine that he could target important marginals without an immigration message dominating the national campaign.

Tim Montgomerie

The table below illustrates voters' priorities in Labour-held marginals: