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Tories 9% ahead in new ComRes poll and heading for majority of 38 in ICM/ News of the World marginals survey

NEWS OF THE WORLD Tomorrow's News of the World carries a poll which ICM has conducted of the battleground marginals which will be key to deciding the outcome of the general election.

And the survey finds that there is currently set to be a swing of 8.5% from Labour to the Conservatives in those seats, leading David Cameron to become Prime Minister with a Commons majority of 38.

It predicts that any Labour MP with a majority of up to almost 8,000 is no longer safe, including Chancellor Alistair Darling and Scottish Secretary, Jim Murphy.

ICM spoke to voters in 97 Labour-held constituencies where the Conservaitves need to increase their share of the vote by between 8% and 20%. It found that the Tories would win 80 of those seats, coupled with the  49 seats where Labour MPs are defending a majority of less than 8%.

The poll does not cover Lib Dem held seats, but if the Conservaitves gained the same swing against sitting Lib Dem MPs, the Conservaitve majority could rise up to 88 seats.

A ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror, however, points to a tightening race. The Tory lead is down 4% to 9% from last week:

ComRes The poll finds strong support for David Cameron's contention that British society is broken. 59% agree, 39% disagree.

Screen shot 2010-01-23 at 19.09.45 The Sunday Mirror explores the popularity of Cameron's strong support for marriage and the family. After another week of Labour attacks, ComRes found 44% agreeing that the Conservative Party has an outdated view of the modern family with 45% disagreeing. 47% say it's a good idea that tax breaks go to married couples but not those who cohabit. 50% think it a bad idea.

Jonathan Isaby and Tim Montgomerie


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